Global House Prices Rising at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

A boom in housing demand during the global pandemic has driven price growth to a 15-year high, according to a report released Wednesday.

The Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index, measuring average home prices across 56 countries and territories, rose 7.3% year over year in the first quarter, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2006.

“A contributory factor to rising house prices globally has been the mass reassessment of housing needs in the wake of the pandemic, whether that’s been buyers seeking home offices, gardens or just to be closer to wide-open spaces,” Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential research at Knight Frank, told Mansion Global.

“The demands on the home have increased in lockdowns and homeowners have reflected on where and how they want to live, prompting many to relocate or purchase a second home,” she added.

With a 32% year-over-year price increase, Turkey led the rankings for the fifth consecutive quarter. However, stripping out inflation, real house prices rose around 16% annually in the country.

“Turkey’s somewhat of a red herring,” Ms. Everett-Allen said. “Sales declined in 2020 but prices increased due to inflation and the weak Turkish lira. Construction costs are also rising due to tight supply chains.”

A total of 13 countries, primarily developed nations, registered double-digit annual price growth. Those include New Zealand (22%), the U.S. (13%), Sweden (13%), Austria (12%), Canada (10.8%) and the U.K. (10.2%).

“Homeowners in these developed nations have also seen some of the largest rates of accrued savings. For some, this may mean they now have a deposit for their first home, or enable existing homeowners to upgrade,” Ms. Everett-Allen said.

For example, the Bank of England estimates that U.K. householders have amassed some £250 billion (US$354 billion) in savings since the start of the pandemic, she said.

Wary of potential housing bubbles, some countries have adopted market-cooling measures to curb the rapid price growth since January. China, New Zealand and Ireland introduced higher stamp duties for investment properties.

China is also considering a national vacancy tax or property tax, as is Canada.

Home prices in China, excluding Hong Kong, rose 4.3% year over year in the first quarter, while Ireland home prices increased 3.7% during the same period.

However, not all countries experienced a housing boom in the first quarter. Four countries saw their housing prices drop from a year ago, including Malaysia (-0.9%), Morocco (-1.2%), India (-1.6%) and Spain (-1.8%), according to the report.

The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.

Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”

Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.

The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.

But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.

Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.

“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”

Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.

Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”

Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.

Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.

Global House Prices Rising at Fastest Pace in 15 Years

13 countries and territories registered double-digit growth in the first quarter.