HONG KONG’S PROPERTY MARKET IS A MESS—AND THE FED IS PARTLY TO BLAME

Hong Kong’s notoriously expensive property market is often seen as a barometer of the city’s economy. It isn’t looking good.

Home prices are down. Office vacancy rates have hit a record high. Commercial real-estate investment has plummeted. The shares of some big developers in the city are trading at a 30-year low to their net asset value, a measure of financial health, according to research by analysts at JPMorgan.

A key reason is high interest rates, which have increased the burden on mortgage-paying home buyers, said Cathie Chung, senior director of research at Jones Lang LaSalle, a real-estate services company. The Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the U.S. dollar forces monetary authorities in the city to track U.S. interest-rate decisions, limiting their ability to stimulate the property sector and the wider economy.

The Federal Reserve has embarked on a historic cycle of interest-rate rises since last March, raising the benchmark federal-funds rate from around zero to 5.25% to 5.50%. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank, has followed these hikes, increasing its base rate to 5.75% from 0.75% over the same period.

The full impact of higher interest rates in the city still hasn’t been felt, said Asif Ghafoor, chief executive of online real-estate marketplace Spacious. Asking prices of residential properties listed on the platform have fallen 5% since the start of the year. Sales prices tend to follow suit, and are likely to fall 5% to 10% in the next six months, he said.

To prop up the market, the HKMA relaxed mortgage rules in early July for the first time since 2009, allowing home buyers to pay less upfront and borrow more for some properties if they plan to live in them. But those working in the sector think the pain is far from over.

“We expect that the recovery will be slow and long,” said Chung at Jones Lang LaSalle.

The slump in the property market has hurt the share prices of developers, a major source of wealth for some of the city’s richest families. CK Asset Holdings, Henderson Land Development, Sun Hung Kai Properties and New World Development—all still partly owned by the families of the founders—are performing much worse than the wider stock market this year. New World and Henderson Land have lost more than 15% this year, according to FactSet data.

Hong Kong is one of the world’s leading financial centres and is seen by many foreign businesses as a gateway to mainland China. It is now being hit by a slowdown in investment-banking activity—with several large banks cutting staff this year—and the shaky recovery of China’s economy, which has undermined confidence among businesses and potential home buyers in Hong Kong.

The overall vacancy rate for offices reached a record high of 15.7% in the first half of this year, compared with an average of under 5% in 2018, according to figures by CBRE. In the central business district, there was almost eight times as much empty office space as in 2018, when the area had a vacancy rate of just 1.3%.

The equivalent of $603 million was invested in commercial real estate between April and June, according to CBRE data, just a third of the first-quarter tally and the lowest quarterly figure since the end of 2008, when the global financial crisis caused a huge drop in confidence.

Hong Kong’s border with mainland China was reopened earlier this year, but companies from the mainland haven’t grabbed office space in the numbers many had hoped, said Ada Fung, head of office services at CBRE Hong Kong. Flexible working arrangements and geopolitical tensions that have made many companies pause expansion plans are also crimping demand, she said.

The drop in demand is being exacerbated by a supply glut. Developers bought land and started constructing a number of new buildings before 2019, when widespread protests rocked the city and only ended with the passing of a strict national-security law. Demand for commercial property after that was soon undermined by the spread of Covid-19.

This shift in supply and demand is finally giving potential renters the upper hand, said Fung. “It could be a healthy reset,” she said.

There are some reasons for optimism. Retail businesses have increased their demand for commercial property after the reopening of the border with China, which has brought in tourists looking to spend on luxury goods. There is also hope that a recent rise in residential rents could help home prices.

After an exodus of professionals and other residents in recent years, people have started to move to the city, including foreign students and those coming to Hong Kong through government talent schemes designed to reverse a brain drain. That is helping rents pick up after hitting a bottom in the first quarter, and could lead to more demand for properties as investments, said Cusson Leung, head of property research in Hong Kong at JPMorgan.

Australia’s luxury property market is being quietly reshaped by one of the most significant wealth expansions in the world.

According to Knight Frank’s latest Wealth Report, the country’s billionaire population is set to grow by 77 per cent over the next five years, rising from 48 to 85 individuals.

That surge sits within a broader wave of wealth creation. Ultra-high-net-worth individuals, those with more than US$30 million, are forecast to increase by nearly 60 per cent to over 26,000 Australians by 2031.

Globally, the pace is accelerating. The report reveals that 89 new ultra-wealthy individuals are created every day, a figure that underscores a structural shift in capital formation rather than a cyclical upswing.

For luxury property markets, this is not just a headline number. It is a demand driver.

Australia’s wealth story is increasingly underpinned by diversification across resources, finance, technology and services, creating a depth of private capital that is both mobile and strategic.

And mobility is key. The ultra-wealthy are no longer tied to a single market. Instead, they are operating across multiple global hubs, maintaining footholds in cities like London, New York and Singapore, while using Australia as a stable base.

In this environment, real estate becomes less about shelter and more about positioning. Trophy assets remain desirable, but capital is increasingly being deployed across the full risk spectrum, from long-term holds to value-add opportunities. For Australia, the implications are clear. As wealth expands, so too does the expectation of product, and the locations that can attract it.

The billionaire effect

While property remains central to wealth preservation, the latest data shows that capital is increasingly spreading across luxury asset classes, albeit with a more disciplined approach.

Knight Frank’s Luxury Investment Index recorded a modest 0.4 per cent decline in 2025, signalling a stabilisation phase after several years of correction.

But beneath that headline number is a more telling shift. Collectors are moving away from speculative buying and toward assets defined by rarity, provenance and cultural significance.

Impressionist art led the market, rising 13.6 per cent, buoyed by landmark sales including a US$236 million Klimt painting. Watches also performed strongly, up 5.1 per cent, driven by continued demand for brands like Patek Philippe and Rolex.

At the same time, more volatile categories have corrected. Whisky values fell 10.9 per cent, while parts of the fine wine market have softened following pandemic-era highs.

Perhaps the most notable trend is behavioural. Younger investors are entering the market through fractional ownership platforms, gaining exposure to high-value assets that were once out of reach.

For property, the parallels are clear. The same focus on scarcity, narrative and long-term value is increasingly shaping buying decisions at the top end of the residential market.

Global wealth

The growth in billionaires is not just increasing demand, it is changing where that demand is directed.

In Australia, Brisbane has emerged as one of a handful of global cities experiencing rapid change in its luxury positioning. The city’s transformation is being driven by infrastructure investment and the 2032 Olympics, with top-end apartment prices rising from around US$6 million to more than US$10 million in just 12 months.

Luxury price growth has remained steady, with Brisbane rising 2.1 per cent in 2025, while the Gold Coast recorded 2.8 per cent.

At the same time, buying power is tightening. US$1 million now buys 5 per cent less in Brisbane than it did five years ago, reflecting the upward pressure on prime markets.

The trend is not confined to capital cities. Regional lifestyle markets are also capturing attention. Geelong’s waterfront has been identified as one of the world’s hottest luxury residential markets, driven by a combination of coastal amenity, infrastructure and relative value.

In these markets, pricing is no longer the sole driver. Lifestyle, accessibility and long-term growth are increasingly shaping buyer decisions, particularly among globally mobile wealth.

Alternative luxury assets

Beyond residential property, high-net-worth individuals are continuing to diversify into alternative assets that combine lifestyle and investment potential.

One of the most compelling examples is vineyard investment. Knight Frank’s Global Vineyard Index highlights the Barossa Valley as one of the best-value wine regions globally, where US$1 million can secure more than 18 hectares of land.

Despite a 10 per cent decline in land values over the past year, the broader outlook remains positive, particularly as the global wine industry shifts toward premiumisation.

This “trading up” trend is seeing consumers favour higher-quality, provenance-driven wines over mass-market products, reinforcing the long-term appeal of established regions like the Barossa and Eden Valleys.

For investors, the appeal lies in the intersection of lifestyle and capital preservation. Vineyard assets offer not only production potential, but also a narrative — something increasingly valued in a market where experience and authenticity carry weight.

HONG KONG’S PROPERTY MARKET IS A MESS—AND THE FED IS PARTLY TO BLAME

U.S. rate increases have tamed inflation at home but caused pain elsewhere

Australia’s wealthy class is expanding fast, and Knight Frank says that a surge in billionaires is reshaping the nation’s luxury property market.