Interview: Tom Offermann, Tom Offermann Real Estate

Tom Offermann has spent the past 35 years developing peerless market knowledge of Noosa and Sunshine Coast environs.

He’s also a man who lives and breathes the lifestyle he proudly sells – often found in his kayak on the Noosa River.

We caught up to discuss the future in light of COVID, ‘southern’ sea-changers and a market that’s ultimately surging.

Kanebridge News: Noosa was recently marked as Queensland’s most expensive property market, thoughts on securing such a title?

Tom Offermann: It’s been named the most expensive shire in the state, but I think it’s more accurately described as the most valuable in the state.

KN: What makes it the most valuable?

TO: Noosa shire has an annual return on investment over 15% — which is incredible. However, some of the shire’s most sought-after locations, such as Noosa Sound, have been averaging capital growth of more than 15% per annum for the past 46 years.

KN: How did Noosa fare coming out of the pandemic?

TO: [In 2021] we were wondering if it might slow down a bit after the summer holidays, but the market for the first quarter has outperformed every quarter of 2020. Auctions are achieving approximately 90% clearance rates, property listings remain tight and an abundance of buyers are waiting for the right property.

KN: Is this driven by those ‘southerners’ looking for a sea / tree-change?

TO: The sea and tree-change effect was the strongest ever and Noosa was one of the greatest beneficiaries, recording high sales volumes plus the highest price gains in Queensland, with houses recording 15.4% annual growth and a median price surpassing $900,000.

KN: So is it now too late for those wanting to get into the market?

TO: No, it’s never too late. My advice is to buy in the best location your budget allows. In the current market it’s important to be ready to act fast and have pre-approval if you require finance, because a property can sell very quickly, sometimes never hitting the market at all.

KN: How does Noosa compete against other coastal ‘lifestyle’ regions?

TO: Noosa has long been known as the jewel in Queensland’s crown, which is a result of superior local governance, the shire’s natural resources and climate — which combine to underpin a property market that has more potential than any others in the country. It’s highly desirable and very tightly held.

KN: What do you say to the naysayer’s who claim the Sunshine Coast’s growth isn’t sustainable – will the market continue to ascend?

TO: Of course it will. Property value is never a straight line graph, however, you can always count on it pointing upwards long-term. At this rate, investors will double their money every five years, something I have experienced throughout my career.

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The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.

Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”

Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.

The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.

But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.

Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.

“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”

Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.

Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”

Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.

Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.

Interview: Tom Offermann, Tom Offermann Real Estate

“At this rate, investors will double their money every five years.”