NSW Rental Rates Remain Unpredictable
New analysis points to a tightening in residential vacancies across February.
By Terry Christodoulou
Tue, Mar 16, 2021 10:11am
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The residential rental market across New South Wales remains erratic.
Fresh data from the Real Estate Institute of New South Wales (REINSW) Vacancy Rate Survey indicates vacancies for Sydney overall tightened last month and now sit at 3.1% (-0.5%).
“Sydney’s inner ring dropped to 3.7%, a decrease of 1.1% for the month,” REINSW CEO Tim McKibbin said. “Similarly, the outer ring dropped by 0.6% to 1.9%. Bucking the trend, the middle ring remained relatively stable, experiencing only a slight 0.1% rise to 4.3%.”
Sydney’s inner ring includes suburbs in LGA’s inclusive of Ashfield, Botany Bay, Lane Cove, Leichhardt, Marrickville, Mosman, North Sydney, Randwick, Sydney, Waverley and Woollahra. While the ‘middle’ is identified as LGAs Auburn, Bankstown, Burwood, Canterbury, Canada Bay, Hunters Hill, Hurstville, Kogarah, Ku-ring-gai, Manly, Parramatta, Rockdale, Ryde, Strathfield and Willoughb and ‘outer’ includes Baulkham Hills, Blacktown and Blue Mountains.
However, if the last 12 months have taught us anything, it’s that the residential rental market remains unpredictable, moving up and down month after month.”
Beyond Sydney, vacancy rates remained stable in the Hunter region up to 1.3% (+0.1%), while the Illawarra region rose to 2.1% (+1.0%).
Vacancy rates across NSW regional areas — such as Albury, the Central West, Murrumbidgee, New England, Northern Rivers and South East areas — all fell in February.
“Feedback from our members in these areas indicates that stock is extremely tight, as tenants continue to exit the Sydney residential rental market to secure a property that suits both their budget and desired lifestyle,” added McKibbin.
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The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.
Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”
Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.
The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.
But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.
Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.
“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”
Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.
Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”
Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.
Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.
