The Properties High Interest Rates Can’t Touch
Competition to buy the world’s most exclusive stores is intense despite modest rent growth. Even Blackstone is ogling the market.
Competition to buy the world’s most exclusive stores is intense despite modest rent growth. Even Blackstone is ogling the market.
Don’t expect any fashion bargains on Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills, or New York’s Fifth Avenue. And property on these famous luxury shopping streets looks as overpriced as the clothes.
While the average commercial building is worth 20% less than in 2022, the world’s most exclusive shops have barely been touched by the highest U.S. and European interest rates in two decades.
Cartier’s Swiss owner, Compagnie Financière Richemont , recently bought a property on London’s Bond Street at a rock-bottom 2.2% rent yield. Similar to the way bonds work, the lower the rent yield, the richer the price paid. The Bank of England’s base rate is around double this level. Most investors these days wouldn’t buy real estate that generates less income than the cost of debt that might be used to purchase it.
Last month, Blackstone sold a luxury store on Milan’s Via Montenapoleone to Gucci owner Kering for a similarly eye-catching price. The building was part of a portfolio of 14 properties that Blackstone bought in 2021 for 1.1 billion euros, equivalent to roughly $1.2 billion. Kering coughed up €1.3 billion, or about $1.4 billion, for the Via Montenapoleone building alone, equivalent to a 2.5% rent yield.
The private-equity firm is understandably eager to do more deals like this, and has since bought another luxury store in London. It is a surprising focus for Blackstone, which for years steered clear of retail property.
Luxury rents are resilient, but they aren’t rising fast enough to justify such hefty price tags for the buildings. Last year, rents increased 3% on Rodeo Drive and were flat on Upper Fifth Avenue, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield .
What luxury retail properties do offer is scarcity. London’s Bond Street has 150 individual buildings, according to real-estate consulting firm CBRE . But because luxury brands are fussy about where they will open a flagship store, only around two-thirds of the street is considered posh enough, limiting their options.
Supply is even tighter on New York’s Fifth Avenue, where just four or five blocks of the six-mile avenue are ritzy enough to lure the world’s most expensive brands. The luxury shopping district of Rodeo Drive in Los Angeles has fewer than 50 individual buildings.
This creates intense competition for both space and ownership. The world’s biggest luxury company, LVMH , has more than 70 brands that need a foothold on prominent shopping streets. Increasingly, LVMH’s answer is to buy the best locations. The Paris-listed company owns at least six properties on Rodeo Drive and six on London’s Bond Street.
Luxury brands see their flagship stores as marketing tools. Counterintuitively, e-commerce has made its physical locations more important. Labels including Christian Dior have opened restaurants and mini museums in their boutiques to give shoppers an experience they can’t find online.
When they are investing this much money in refurbishments, it makes more sense to own than to rent . Luxury brands have spent more than $9 billion buying boutiques since the start of 2023, according to a Bernstein analysis, and they control increasingly larger tracts of major shopping districts. Back in 2009, brands owned 15% of the buildings on London’s Bond Street, says Phil Cann, an executive director at CBRE. Today, their share has jumped to 30%.
Luxury labels also need to avoid being kicked out of a property by a rival-turned-landlord, which is happening more often. British handbag maker Asprey was given its marching orders by Hermès on London’s Bond Street. The French brand bought the building that Asprey occupied since the 1840s and wants to convert it into an Hermès flagship. Rolex recently bought a store that is rented out to Patek Philippe, although its competitor doesn’t need to move out any time soon as there are still several years left on the lease.
Most luxury stores are still in the hands of sovereign-wealth funds or rich families who might have owned the buildings for decades. Given the enticing prices that brands are willing to pay despite high interest rates, more are considering cashing out.
Landlords from Hong Kong, who began parking their cash in luxury stores around 2010, are among those selling up. New York real-estate investor Wharton Properties also sold two Fifth Avenue buildings to Kering and Prada this year at very high prices that were equivalent to 2% rent yields. Wharton is experiencing some distress in other parts of its portfolio, so it might have needed to raise funds.
Luxury brands made huge amounts of money during the pandemic. Richemont currently has more than €7 billion of net cash sitting on its balance sheet. Merger and acquisition activity has been quiet, so real estate might be the next-best thing to pour their riches into.
Property deals on the world’s most expensive streets will continue to operate in their own twilight zone, no matter what central bankers do next.
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The US housing market remains under pressure as high mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability and demand. Industry leaders say 2026 has been one of the toughest years for home sales, with slower price growth, weaker mortgage activity, and fewer buyers entering the market. However, experts say reduced competition and more price cuts could create opportunities for well-prepared buyers.
The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.
Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”
Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.
The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.
But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.
Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.
“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”
Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.
Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”
Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.
Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.