The TikTok Bill Targets China’s Cultural Influence. That’s a Big Shift from the Tech War.

Congress’ new swing at social-media app TikTok might seem like more of the same old U.S.-China tech war that’s been running for several years—just that now it has come for dancing teens.

But what leading advocates of the new TikTok bill want would significantly expand the scope of the U.S. government’s interventions into the economy in the name of national security. The law would effectively ban TikTok if it didn’t change owners out of Chinese hands. The hallmark of China-focused regulation in recent years has been to keep American stuff—advanced technology, data, and intellectual property—out of the hands of the Chinese military. The TikTok bill would attempt to do something different: regulate companies’ ability to wield cultural power over Americans.

U.S.-China competition has already been hugely consequential for both countries’ economies and the world. Flows of trade, capital, information, and people between the two have fallen by 28% over the past decade, a report out today on the state of globalisation by logistics company DHL finds. The rise of industrial policy and other political interventions in markets are helping keep inflation high worldwide. Any expansion of regulation into new areas could add to that pressure.

To be sure, the bill is still far from becoming law. It passed the House today with overwhelming margins, but it must still pass the Senate and be signed into law by the president. Its advocates make a strong case that something really is new when it comes to TikTok. But given the stakes, it’s worth understanding exactly what that new thing is.

The bill’s leading advocates want it for two reasons . One, they argue TikTok is effectively a vast data-collection tool that can hand information about Americans directly to the Chinese Communist Party, whose requests TikTok’s management can’t refuse. This is a familiar issue in tech regulation. It is also why U.S. government employees aren’t allowed to keep the app on their phones.

The other issue is more novel. This is the idea that TikTok can be used “to mobilise public opinion,” as one of the bill’s lead sponsors, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D., Ill.), put it in a hearing with the leaders of the U.S. intelligence community on Tuesday.

Many TikTok users saw a pop-up last week urging them to contact Congress about the pending legislation, and quite a few did. Doesn’t that show exactly how the Chinese Communist Party could manipulate Americans, Krishnamoorthi asked? “While I can’t speak to the specific example,” responded FBI Director Christopher Wray, “I can tell you that the kind of thing you’re describing illustrates why this is such a concern.”

Avril Haines, U.S. director of national intelligence said that she couldn’t rule out that the CCP would use TikTok just like that to intervene in the 2024 election, something the intelligence community warned about in a new public threat assessment issued this week.

The TikTok legislation would resolve that worry not by taking away TikTok’s ability to influence Americans—only a full ban would do that. Instead, it would give the government leverage to force ByteDance, the app’s parent company, to hand ownership to an American company. Americans could still be influenced— Meta , X, and other social-media companies have been the target of other foreign-influence campaigns—but they could at least be more confident U.S. enemies aren’t secretly try to push them ideas.

TikTok’s leadership doesn’t see the issues this way. It believes the legislation is intended to ban the app, not just force divestment, and says it doesn’t take orders from the Chinese Communist Party in any case. Its CEO is from Singapore, not China, and the company is working with U.S. tech company Oracle to keep its data local to the U.S.

What no one seems to dispute is that TikTok really is wildly influential. Its 170 million users care deeply about what happens on the platform.

The question Congress is raising is whether some of TikTok’s users have been manipulated. This is a version of the argument Democrats made when it became apparent that Russia tried to intervene in the 2016 election to favour President Trump. The problem with that logic, as Republicans pointed out at the time, is that it’s not clear where it leads. If a bunch of Americans vote for the wrong reasons, does that mean the election is illegitimate? That’s a dangerous road to go down.

The point of the TikTok bill is to essentially head the debate off at the pass. Let there be no questions about the legitimacy of voting, because there wasn’t any illegitimate foreign influence behind it in the first place.

As Chris Fenton, a former Hollywood executive-turned-China critic who advised the bill’s sponsors, points out in an essay for RealClearPolitics , there is some precedent here. The Federal Communications Commission prohibits control of U.S. broadcasters by hostile governments. “Why should TikTok be an exception?,” he asks.

That’s the question the Senate will have to answer, while considering the costs of a major expansion of the U.S.-China fight and the risk that calling into question the political judgment of millions of U.S. social-media users will backfire in unexpected ways.

This decision will matter for much longer than the next dance craze.

Wall Street’s hottest trade has gone ice cold.

For years, it paid off to buy stocks that were rising in price—and bet against struggling shares. The momentum trade was especially profitable this year, as investors piled into hot stocks including Micron Technology, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and other artificial-intelligence darlings while wagering against those likely to be hurt by the embrace of AI.

The S&P 500 Momentum Index soared 44% in the second quarter, its best quarterly performance on record, and it surged 133% over the past five years, nearly double the broad market’s performance.

Mega funds and rookie investors alike piled into the trade, some using leverage and options contracts in an effort to amplify their returns, propelling the underlying shares higher.

“It is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Matthew Tym, managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, of the trade.

Suddenly, the trade is a loser. The momentum index has tumbled more than 9% since July 1, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 2.8% gain. The index—which tracks stocks in the S&P 500 based on a “momentum score”—is on track for the biggest quarterly underperformance in 25 years. July was the second-worst month for the momentum trade in around 40 years, according to Bank of America estimates; the only month worse was April 2009, in the teeth of the global financial crisis.

Hedge funds that bought momentum shares while shorting low-momentum stocks suffered even more. At the same time, a basket of the most popular stocks held by hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs recorded its biggest one-month underperformance in July relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years, according to the bank’s analysts.

Momentum trading is based on a rather simple observation: Investments that go up tend to keep outperforming; those that underperform often remain laggards. This kind of trading might seem too simple a stock-picking strategy to work. Yet it often has.

“For decades, it didn’t take a lot of sophistication to run a momentum strategy and make a decent living at it,” says Agustin Lebron, senior researcher at EquiLibre, a trading firm.

Part of the reason: It takes a while for corporate and other information to spread to various investors, so they slowly build positions, producing buying momentum.

“A huge pension fund can’t flip around its positions in a day,” says Lebron. “Behavioral biases also account for some of the effect, as well—people tend to sell their winners too early and hold losers too long.”

Fans of the strategy point to the human tendency to extrapolate from past results—and chase investment returns—noting that momentum patterns have been evident in markets for decades, even centuries. They also say that some of the worst months for momentum strategies are during longer periods of outperformance.

Some have been doing the trade by buying the strongest investments in a sector while shorting the weakest; others lean in to rising markets or asset classes. Still others use a quantitative approach or turn to banks or others who sell ways to make distinct wagers on momentum as a “tradable factor” or a “thematic basket.”

The fans remain believers. “Any strategy has disappointing periods,” says Antti Ilmanen, global co-head of the portfolio solutions group at AQR Capital Management.

The surge in Moderna and other biotech stocks helped crush the momentum trade. These shares were among the most heavily shorted in recent years, but positive news on a cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck sent those stocks flying, crushing some quant and other hedge funds. Moderna is up around 150% so far this month.

These traders had an especially rough day on Aug. 19, which Goldman Sachs told its clients was the worst day for “systematic long-short managers” in more than two years. About half of the losses were because of momentum trades, the bank said.

Some traders have begun to short, or bet against, the very stocks that propelled the momentum trade earlier this year. Net short positions in futures tied to the Nasdaq-100 index among speculators recently climbed to some of the highest levels of the past two decades, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The about-face is a sign of how markets have become more treacherous for investors, even as indexes keep climbing. Part of the issue: the recent meltdown of Situational Awareness, a hedge fund that had piled into some of the most popular momentum shares, including chip stocks. After a period of market tumult, Nvidia shares rocketed almost 9% after its earnings, showing how quickly sentiment can shift.

Some investors say the run-up in share prices driving tech stocks higher reminds them at times of the dot-com frenzy decades ago.

Mike Ogborne, the founder of San Francisco-based Ogborne Capital Management, said he has grown more cautious on technology stocks and is keeping more of his portfolio in cash than he typically does.

And he is nervous about the surge in spending by technology giants and quarterly capital expenditures that keep rising.

“It is a little bit like Cinderella and the clock striking midnight. You don’t know when midnight is going to come around,” Ogborne said. “They don’t send a memo around telling you when the capex cycle is over.”

The TikTok Bill Targets China’s Cultural Influence. That’s a Big Shift from the Tech War.

Wall Street’s hottest momentum trade has reversed sharply, as former winners tumble and heavily shorted stocks surge.