Pandemic effects and government aid are blunting impact of higher rates, for now
5 min
The world’s central banks raced at an extraordinary pace over the past year to cool inflation, but it hasn’t proved enough—yet.
Economic growth remains mostly solid and price pressures strong across affluent countries despite sharply higher interest rates.
Why haven’t growth and inflation slowed more? Much of the explanation lies in the pandemic’s weird effects and the time it takes for central-bank rate increases to curb economic activity. Additionally, historically tight labor markets have fuelled wage gains and consumer spending.
First, the unusual nature of the pandemic-induced 2020 recession and the ensuing recovery blunted the normal impacts of rate hikes. In 2020 and 2021, the U.S. and other governments provided trillions of dollars in financial assistance to households that were also saving money as the pandemic interrupted normal spending patterns. Meanwhile, central banks’ rock-bottom interest rates allowed companies and consumers to lock in low borrowing costs.
Households and businesses continued to spend heavily in recent months. Families tapped their savings, which were replenished by solid income growth. Businesses kept hiring thanks to pandemic-related labour shortages and large profits.
“There are just a lot of embedded pandemic-era forces that are working against this tightening,” Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told reporters last week.
Two industries traditionally sensitive to interest rates—autos and construction—offer examples.
Pandemic-related shortages of semiconductor chips limited the supply of cars for sale, leading eager buyers to pay higher prices for the vehicles available. Although U.S. construction of single-family homes tumbled last year, construction employment grew over the past 12 months. Fuelling job growth were supply-chain bottlenecks that extended the time needed to finish homes and a record amount of U.S. apartment construction, which takes longer to complete.
U.S. single-family housing construction has rebounded recently thanks to historically low numbers of homes for sale. Many households refinanced during the pandemic and locked in low mortgage rates—a good reason to stay put. “I didn’t fully anticipate how much the move in interest rates would convince people not to put their houses on the market,” Barkin said.
Normally, the Federal Reserve’s rate increases force heavily indebted consumers and businesses to rein in spending because they have to pay more to service their loans. But consumers haven’t overextended themselves with debt over the past two years; household debt service payments accounted for 9.6% of disposable personal income during the first quarter, below the lowest levels recorded between 1980 and the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.
“A lot of the imbalances you might anticipate at this point in the cycle just have not had the time to build up,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.
Second, government spending has continued to bolster growth, cushioning economic shocks that proved less catastrophic than expected. While Europe’s energy crisis helped to tip the region into a shallow recession over the winter, the region skirted the deep downturn that some analysts had forecast. European governments pledged up to $850 billion to support spending.
This year falling oil and natural-gas prices have pumped up economic growth by putting money into consumers’ pockets, boosting confidence and easing pressures on government budgets. The price of a barrel of oil has fallen by nearly half in the past year, from around $120 to less than $70—below its level before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring.
The reopening of China’s economy supported activity in the country’s many trading partners, while weak domestic growth prompted Beijing this month to provide new stimulus.
In the U.S., fiscal policy has provided more oomph for the economy this year. Federal funding continues to flow from President Biden’s roughly $1 trillion infrastructure package approved in 2021 and two pieces of legislation signed last year that provide hundreds of billions of dollars to boost renewable-energy production and semiconductor manufacturing.
Third, it takes time for higher interest rates to ripple through the economy and cool growth and inflation. The Bank of England first raised interest rates from near zero in December 2021, while the Fed and the European Central Bank lifted off in March 2022 and July 2022, respectively.
By some estimates, the first two-thirds of the Fed’s rate increases only restored rates to a level that was no longer pushing on the gas pedal, while the last third slowed the economy by pressing the brakes. The upshot is that policy has restricted growth for just eight or nine months, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic wrote in an essay published last week.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee compared the potential coming impact of the Fed’s 5 percentage points in rate increases to the unseen hazards faced by Wile E. Coyote, the unlucky cartoon character. “If you raise 500 basis points in one year, is there a huge rock that’s just floating overhead…that’s going to drop on us?” he said in a recent interview.
Dario Perkins, managing director at the research firm TS Lombard, said higher rates are slowing growth in ways that aren’t obvious, such as by causing employers to cut unfilled jobs or companies to forgo expansion. “It might appear that monetary policy isn’t working when, in fact, it is,” he wrote in a recent report.
To be sure, some central banks might not have done enough to cool demand. The ECB, for example, increased its key rate to 3.5% this month, but it is still negative when adjusted for inflation—potentially a stimulative level.
Many economists still anticipate a recession over the next six to 18 months, either because of past rate increases or those to come.
Just how much higher to raise rates is hard to judge because of mixed signals about economic activity. In the U.S., hiring has been strong, but average hours worked declined in May and the number of people filing for state unemployment benefits has climbed in recent weeks to its highest levels since late 2021.
Falling energy and grocery prices helped lower U.S. inflation to 4% in May from a four-decade high last summer of around 9%, according to the Labor Department’s consumer-price index. The breadth of price increases has narrowed. In May, less than 50% of all prices in the CPI rose by more than 5%, down from 80% of the index at one point last year.
Central bankers remain anxious, however, because measures of so-called core inflation, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, have declined much less. Those readings tend to better predict future inflation.
Central banks in Norway and the U.K. announced half-point interest-rate increases last week to address persistent inflation. Central banks in Canada and Australia recently resumed rate increases after pausing, pointing to higher service-sector inflation and tight labor markets.
The Switzerland-based Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of central banks, warned in a report released Sunday that reducing inflation to many central banks’ 2% target could be harder than expected.
Easy gains from lower energy- and food-price inflation have been banked. The longer high inflation lasts, the more likely it is that people will adjust their behaviour and reinforce it, the BIS said. In that scenario, central banks might find they need to cause a sharper downturn to force inflation down to their goal.
“The ‘last mile’ may pose the biggest challenge,” the BIS said.
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4 min
As Paris makes its final preparations for the Olympic games, its residents are busy with their own—packing their suitcases, confirming their reservations, and getting out of town.
Worried about the hordes of crowds and overall chaos the Olympics could bring, Parisians are fleeing the city in droves and inundating resort cities around the country. Hotels and holiday rentals in some of France’s most popular vacation destinations—from the French Riviera in the south to the beaches of Normandy in the north—say they are expecting massive crowds this year in advance of the Olympics. The games will run from July 26-Aug. 1.
“It’s already a major holiday season for us, and beyond that, we have the Olympics,” says Stéphane Personeni, general manager of the Lily of the Valley hotel in Saint Tropez. “People began booking early this year.”
Personeni’s hotel typically has no issues filling its rooms each summer—by May of each year, the luxury hotel typically finds itself completely booked out for the months of July and August. But this year, the 53-room hotel began filling up for summer reservations in February.
“We told our regular guests that everything—hotels, apartments, villas—are going to be hard to find this summer,” Personeni says. His neighbours around Saint Tropez say they’re similarly booked up.
As of March, the online marketplace Gens de Confiance (“Trusted People”), saw a 50% increase in reservations from Parisians seeking vacation rentals outside the capital during the Olympics.
Already, August is a popular vacation time for the French. With a minimum of five weeks of vacation mandated by law, many decide to take the entire month off, renting out villas in beachside destinations for longer periods.
But beyond the typical August travel, the Olympics are having a real impact, says Bertille Marchal, a spokesperson for Gens de Confiance.
“We’ve seen nearly three times more reservations for the dates of the Olympics than the following two weeks,” Marchal says. “The increase is definitely linked to the Olympic Games.”
According to the site, the most sought-out vacation destinations are Morbihan and Loire-Atlantique, a seaside region in the northwest; le Var, a coastal area within the southeast of France along the Côte d’Azur; and the island of Corsica in the Mediterranean.
Meanwhile, the Olympics haven’t necessarily been a boon to foreign tourism in the country. Many tourists who might have otherwise come to France are avoiding it this year in favour of other European capitals. In Paris, demand for stays at high-end hotels has collapsed, with bookings down 50% in July compared to last year, according to UMIH Prestige, which represents hotels charging at least €800 ($865) a night for rooms.
Earlier this year, high-end restaurants and concierges said the Olympics might even be an opportunity to score a hard-get-seat at the city’s fine dining.
In the Occitanie region in southwest France, the overall number of reservations this summer hasn’t changed much from last year, says Vincent Gare, president of the regional tourism committee there.
“But looking further at the numbers, we do see an increase in the clientele coming from the Paris region,” Gare told Le Figaro, noting that the increase in reservations has fallen directly on the dates of the Olympic games.
Michel Barré, a retiree living in Paris’s Le Marais neighbourhood, is one of those opting for the beach rather than the opening ceremony. In January, he booked a stay in Normandy for two weeks.
“Even though it’s a major European capital, Paris is still a small city—it’s a massive effort to host all of these events,” Barré says. “The Olympics are going to be a mess.”
More than anything, he just wants some calm after an event-filled summer in Paris, which just before the Olympics experienced the drama of a snap election called by Macron.
“It’s been a hectic summer here,” he says.
Parisians—Barré included—feel that the city, by over-catering to its tourists, is driving out many residents.
Parts of the Seine—usually one of the most popular summertime hangout spots —have been closed off for weeks as the city installs bleachers and Olympics signage. In certain neighbourhoods, residents will need to scan a QR code with police to access their own apartments. And from the Olympics to Sept. 8, Paris is nearly doubling the price of transit tickets from €2.15 to €4 per ride.
The city’s clear willingness to capitalise on its tourists has motivated some residents to do the same. In March, the number of active Airbnb listings in Paris reached an all-time high as hosts rushed to list their apartments. Listings grew 40% from the same time last year, according to the company.
With their regular clients taking off, Parisian restaurants and merchants are complaining that business is down.
“Are there any Parisians left in Paris?” Alaine Fontaine, president of the restaurant industry association, told the radio station Franceinfo on Sunday. “For the last three weeks, there haven’t been any here.”
Still, for all the talk of those leaving, there are plenty who have decided to stick around.
Jay Swanson, an American expat and YouTuber, can’t imagine leaving during the Olympics—he secured his tickets to see ping pong and volleyball last year. He’s also less concerned about the crowds and road closures than others, having just put together a series of videos explaining how to navigate Paris during the games.
“It’s been 100 years since the Games came to Paris; when else will we get a chance to host the world like this?” Swanson says. “So many Parisians are leaving and tourism is down, so not only will it be quiet but the only people left will be here for a party.”
