China’s stocks have underperformed this year as questions linger on durability of economic rebound
2 min
One mystery in global markets this year is that while China’s economy appears to be rebounding strongly, its stock market hasn’t been doing as well.
The MSCI China index has risen only 1.8% so far this year, underperforming many of the major markets. The S&P 500 index, for example, has gained 7.7%. Stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen have done a bit better—the CSI 300 index has gone up 4.9% in 2023. That seems to be in contrast to the rebounding economy, after China scrapped its strict “zero-Covid” pandemic restrictions in December and scaled back its regulatory crackdown on its technology companies.
China’s gross domestic product grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the first quarter and, more significantly, consumption has also come back strongly: retail sales jumped more than 10% in March from a year earlier. Crowds were everywhere in Chinese scenic spots in the recent five-day “Golden Week” holiday. Total domestic trips during the holiday rose 19% from the same period in 2019, according to official figures. Tourism revenue also recovered to pre pandemic levels.
Of course, the rally in Chinese stocks late last year already priced in a big part of the recovery. The MSCI China index surged 34% in the last two months in 2022, after rumours of reopening started to circulate.
Yet earnings growth so far has been disappointing. For nearly 80% of Chinese listed companies that have reported their first-quarter results, profits only grew an average 1% year on year, with around 69% of them having missed consensus earnings estimates, according to Goldman Sachs. About 77% of A-share shares—companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen—revised down their earnings guidance for 2023, according to Bank of America.
Earnings growth will likely improve ahead, especially against a lower base last year, when lockdowns across the country battered the economy. The struggling housing sector also seems to have stabilised. But a big question that remains is how long the consumption bounce could last. The export sector may suffer with a potential recession looming in the U.S. and Europe. China’s job market, especially for younger workers, is still quite weak. That partly explains why investors have jumped back into shares of state-owned enterprises—a more stable choice in an uncertain time.
Chinese stocks have rebounded substantially from their lows last year, but are still way off their peaks in early 2021, when China appeared to have avoided the worst of the pandemic. A more sustained market recovery would require a more broad-based revival of earnings growth.
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Rugged coastal drives and fireside drams define a slow, indulgent journey through Scotland’s far north.
A haven for hedge-fund titans and Hollywood grandees, Greenwich is one of the world’s most expensive residential enclaves, where eye-watering prices meet unapologetic grandeur.
A haven for hedge-fund titans and Hollywood grandees, Greenwich is one of the world’s most expensive residential enclaves, where eye-watering prices meet unapologetic grandeur.
4 min
Greenwich, Connecticut, is in New England (just barely), but that doesn’t mean it’s a quaint, sleepy small town with covered bridges and white churches on the green.
It’s leafy, certainly, but it’s also a luxury-minded power centre close to New York City, with many celebrity residents (director Ron Howard, singer Diana Ross, actor Meryl Streep and, at one time, Australia’s own Mel Gibson).
The main shopping street, Greenwich Avenue, is home to brand stores such as Hermès, Kate Spade, Saks Fifth Avenue, and Tiffany & Co.
And Greenwich, particularly in the “back country” north of the Merritt Parkway, is host to some of the most exclusive real estate in the world.
The average price for a single-family home in the second quarter of 2025 was USD $3.25 million (AUD $4.9 million). But that’s merely an entry point, buying a smaller home in one of the town’s less desirable neighbourhoods.
What does USD $43 million (AUD $66 million) buy in Greenwich?
Last autumn’s most expensive listing offered a 1,068-square-metre waterfront home with eight bedrooms and 11 bathrooms, plus “Gatsby-like lawns”, a gym, games room, party room, wine cellar, fruit orchard, pool and spa. The front and side porches have heated floors.
Prefer something more traditional and secluded? For USD $33 million (AUD $50 million), buyers could close on an 11,760-square-metre Georgian manor on 3.2 hectares, featuring eight fireplaces, an elevator, and a dumbwaiter.
The first floor features a three-storey cascading chandelier. For bibliophiles, there’s a two-storey mahogany library. If bocce is more your pace, a similar USD $25 million compound on 7.5 hectares, built for a liquor magnate in 2009, may appeal. Fourteen bathrooms should suffice.
The Greenwich market is strong, but not without challenges.
“The big problem is that there’s no inventory,” said Evangela Brock, an agent with Douglas Elliman. “It’s extremely low at all price points.”
In November, just 15 properties under USD $1 million (AUD $1.52 million) were listed without contracts, compared with 23 above USD $10 million (AUD $15.2 million). Of those, six had contracts pending. Greenwich has more than 17,000 single-family homes.
Kanebridge Quarterly toured two mid-priced houses in Greenwich. “You don’t lose money in Greenwich real estate,” said Beth MacGillivray, a realtor with the Higgins Group. “This is the hot spot.”
MacGillivray opened the door to a 733.9-square-metre Georgian colonial in the Sherwood Farms Association development her family built in 2005. The house was expected to sell for about USD $5 million (AUD $7,743,535).
The six-bedroom, four-level house is move-in ready, with staged furniture showing its potential and many of the amenities that buyers in this range expect.
Visitors enter through a two-storey foyer with a marble floor. A circular staircase leads to an airy living room with double-height ceilings.
There’s a main bedroom with his-and-hers bathrooms, a cherry-panelled library with cigar-smoke venting, five fireplaces, and a state-of-the-art kitchen with a breakfast nook by Greenwich-based designer Christopher Peacock.
Most rooms have huge walk-in wardrobes. Even the laundry room has granite countertops. Custom millwork, cabinetry and fixtures are evident throughout.
The drawbacks? A smaller yard and no pool. Still, refugees from the city would marvel at the abundant interior space.
Not far away, an entirely different house was on the market for USD $2.66 million.
The imposing 696.7-square-metre, nine-bedroom, seven-bath Georgian/Federal home on Shady Lane in the Glenville neighbourhood was built in 1900. Its good bones and inherent grandeur were apparent, as was a clear need for updating.
“It’s a good project for someone,” said realtor Kaori Higgins. “It needs the right buyer, someone who is looking to return it to its stately original condition.”
Given the hot market, some buyers may be tempted to tear it down and build anew.
But the house is filled with charming period details, including hand-built stone fireplaces, reading nooks, pocket doors, leaded windows and beautiful original millwork.
The second floor offers a vast veranda with views of Long Island Sound and a built-in swimming pool.
The drawbacks? Bathrooms that were awkwardly redesigned in the 1970s, unsightly flooring on the upper levels, and crumbling exterior elements.
Higgins noted that a nearby sister property, fully renovated, sold for USD $11 million (AUD $17 million). Any buyer of Shady Lane’s faded elegance would need both imagination and deep pockets.
For contrast, Kanebridge Quarterly left Greenwich for nearby Fairfield’s upscale Greenfield Hill neighbourhood to visit Lion’s Gate, a 595 square metre Tudor Revival home built as a modest dwelling in the 1920s but extensively expanded and remodelled in 2000.
With three acres of land, a guest cottage, an artist’s studio and a pool house, the asking price is USD $3.3 million (AUD $5 million). Like the Sherwood home, Lion’s Gate is flawlessly move-in ready, with designer touches throughout.
The entire second floor was added during the renovation and features parquet flooring, a massive main suite, arched doorways and 2.74-metre ceilings.
Many rooms include walk-in wardrobes, extensive carved millwork and built-ins. The wood-panelled library (on the site of the former stable) is warm and inviting.
The expansive kitchen includes a window seat with a hand-painted ceiling, a wine cooler and a butler’s pantry.
Realtor Lorelei Atwood said Fairfield faces the same inventory shortage as Greenwich.
“Demand is growing as more New York-based executives are being told they have to report to the office,” she said. “Fairfield has always been a commuter town.”
Why is this home USD $3.3 million (AUD $5 million), and the Sherwood property around USD $5 million (AUD $7,743,535)?
Location. Greenfield Hill is lovely, but Greenwich real estate occupies a rarefied class of its own.
Note: Thanks to realtor Sherri Steeneck for chaperoning.
This story appeared in the Autumn issue of Kanebridge Quarterly, which you can buy here.
