Paramount and California’s attorney general are in advanced settlement talks over the company’s proposed $81 billion merger with Warner Bros. Discovery. Potential concessions include investing $1.5 billion in California production, retaining both studio lots and introducing safeguards for CNN’s editorial independence.
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California’s attorney general and Paramount PSKY -3.86%decrease; down pointing triangle have discussed a series of potential concessions as part of advanced settlement negotiations, including a $1.5 billion investment by the company in production in California, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Paramount executives and a coalition of states that sued to block its $81 billion merger with Warner Bros. Discovery WBD -1.56%decrease; down pointing triangle spent the weekend hashing out the details of a possible settlement. Such an agreement would clear the way for a deal that would bring HBO, CBS, CNN, streaming services and famed movie studios under one owner.
Among the concessions the parties have discussed beyond the sizable production investment: a promise not to sell either studio lot and to stay in the state of California, the people said. The company had explored moving out of the state as the deal faced opposition.
The parties have also considered potential penalties if Paramount doesn’t make good on an earlier pledge to make 30 movies a year after the merger, including having to sell its stake in Miramax, known for such classic movies as “No Country for Old Men” and “Pulp Fiction,” the people familiar with the matter said.
Other measures the sides have explored include the sale of some cable channels and the creation of a board to ensure that CNN retains editorial independence, people with knowledge of the talks said. The network has been a political flashpoint throughout Paramount CEO David Ellison’s fight for Warner. Paramount had been discussing creating such an editorial board before the lawsuit.
A final deal hasn’t been reached, and it is unclear what terms the parties may ultimately agree to.
Ellison has spent the past year fighting to buy Warner in a megadeal that would expand his entertainment empire, but that has drawn opposition from some political and Hollywood figures.
A dozen Democratic-led states led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta sued in July to block the deal on antitrust grounds, arguing that the combination of Paramount and Warner would create too much concentration in the markets for theatrical films and cable television channels.
The Writers Guild of America sued over the merger, saying that the deal would eliminate jobs and career opportunities for Hollywood screenwriters.
About two dozen demonstrators gathered in front of the Elihu M. Harris State Office Building in downtown Oakland on Sunday evening to protest a potential settlement. Holding signs reading “Bonta: Don’t You Dare” and “Block the Megamerger,” they took turns giving speeches urging the attorney general to continue pressing the suit.
“Nothing has changed since he filed the case,” said Annie Leonard, co-founder of the nonprofit Committee for the First Amendment, which advocates for free expression. “He needs to stay as strong as he was in filing it.”
The two sides had come under pressure to settle the matter in recent months, including from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, movie theater chains and some Hollywood labor unions.
Paramount’s agreement with Warner also included a “ticking fee” with payments to Warner shareholders of roughly $650 million a quarter, or $7 million a day, beginning next month, until the transaction closes.
Paramount had asked a federal judge to require the states and the Writers Guild to put up a nearly $1.9 billion bond for challenging the acquisition, money that would go to the company if it ultimately won the case.
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AI-powered travel agents are challenging online booking platforms, but Airbnb’s exclusive listings and direct customer relationships could give it an edge. Its next challenge: turning repeat guests into loyal customers through stronger rewards and innovation.
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AI agents like Muse can already find you the cheapest hotel room in Paris. But they can’t locate a cheaper version of that Catskills cabin you’ve been eyeing, because it might only be available on Airbnb ABNB -1.43%decrease.
Investors should pay attention to that distinction. When Meta Platforms META 3.38%increase launched its Muse agent last month, travel stocks including Booking Holdings BKNG -1.19%decrease, Expedia and Airbnb all fell sharply.
Airbnb, though, has a real chance to emerge as a winner from the upheaval. The catch: Its stock already reflects above-industry growth. To justify its valuation, Airbnb will need to turn repeat customers into loyal ones.
Online travel companies make much of their money by simplifying search and collecting fees on bookings. AI agents threaten that model.
But not all travel marketplaces are equally exposed. Booking and Expedia largely sell hotel rooms that travelers can also book directly or through competing sites. If an agent can find the same room elsewhere, it has little reason to favor either Booking or Expedia.
Booking and Expedia also sell sponsored listings that steer travelers toward particular properties. Wells Fargo estimates those will account for about 8% of Expedia’s revenue and a much higher percentage of profit next year.
Airbnb has more ways to adapt. More than half its listings are available only on its platform, and more than 90% of its traffic comes directly to its app or website.
The customer relationship doesn’t end after booking, either. Bernstein analyst Richard Clarke notes that 90% of Airbnb guests go on to message their hosts about arrival times, keys or local taxes, giving Airbnb a connection to both sides of the transaction.
How the companies have responded to the possible agentic future is telling.
Expedia quickly signed on as a Muse partner. Airbnb hasn’t, and Chief Executive Brian Chesky says AI chatbots have so far been a boon, sending customers to Airbnb’s website.
Chatbots might work for buying paper towels, he quipped at a Skift conference last month, but people enjoy planning trips. He argued that browsing dozens of homes isn’t something a text-based chatbot is well suited for.
Still, the AI jitters arrived just as Airbnb was persuading investors it deserved its pricey multiple. For years after its 2020 initial public offering, the stock—which trades around 25 to 30 times forward earnings—went nowhere. Investors saw a mature operator trading at a growth premium.
This year, Airbnb growth seems to be accelerating. The stock jumped in August after the company raised its full-year revenue-growth guidance with its second-quarter results. Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski credits a run of product improvements under a revamped leadership team.
Among the changes: letting guests reserve now and pay later, adding hotels, and a redesigned home page and app. Investors were also betting on what comes next, including thousands more hotels, car rentals and, eventually, advertising.
The irony is that some of those growth drivers push Airbnb closer to the kind of business Booking and Expedia run—the kind of business AI agents could threaten. Even if AI agents capture a large share of travel planning and booking, Airbnb would capture the demand. But it and others would slowly lose control over how customers find and choose properties.
That would undermine the advertising opportunity investors are counting on. The bigger point for Airbnb and other marketplaces is that losing control of customer acquisition could mean surrendering some of their pricing power and margins.
To bulletproof itself, Airbnb might look to another e-commerce giant that has so far kept AI agents at arm’s length: Amazon.
Like Amazon, Airbnb has a loyal customer base and hard-to-match supply. But it has nothing like Prime membership to make customers think twice before taking their business elsewhere.
That is where loyalty comes in. Business travelers stick with Hilton or Marriott because enough nights earn them perks. Leisure travelers rarely accumulate stays with one chain. Airbnb has millions of listings and plenty of repeat customers, but no broad rewards program. It has begun experimenting with credits on hotel stays, but it should make loyalty a priority, not just a promotion.
Airbnb also plans to launch its own AI agent next year. But travelers using an agent might still want it to search Airbnb, Vrbo, Booking and hotel websites alike, rather than limit itself to one company’s inventory.
Eventually, Airbnb might have to strike deals with agent makers, using its unique homes as leverage to negotiate favorable terms, says Gawrelski. Such deals, along with rewards for loyal guests, could over the long term eat into the company’s roughly 13% take rate, he adds. But if they bring in enough additional bookings, the trade-off could be worthwhile.
History offers a reason not to panic. The shift from desktop to mobile unsettled investors in Alphabet and Amazon, but both emerged as major beneficiaries. Companies with valuable assets can come out of a platform shift stronger, if they adapt quickly enough.
Airbnb has homes the bots can’t easily replace. Now it needs to give guests a reason to insist on booking them there.
