Retail sales accelerated and industrial production topped expectations over first two months of the year.
2 min
SINGAPORE—China reported surprisingly robust economic activity to start the year, giving Beijing some wind at its back as it faces the prospect of increased tensions with President Trump’s second administration.
Retail sales, a measure of consumer spending in China, accelerated, and investment and industrial production grew more than expected, though unemployment rose to a two-year high, and the beleaguered property market remained under pressure, according to official data.
The numbers come a day after Beijing released a policy plan to expand domestic consumption, including raising wages, increasing pensions and creating incentives for childbirth . The plan was the latest acknowledgment of the urgency in Beijing to find alternatives to export-led growth, but was light on specifics, such as whether new funding would be allocated to its policies, or how local governments would implement the proposed measures.
China earlier this month set an ambitious growth target of about 5% for 2025 and pledged to step up spending and boost domestic demand to stimulate a sluggish economy that is threatened by an escalating trade war with the U.S. The 5% growth target, unchanged from a year earlier, projected a sense of continuity as the Trump administration upends long-held assumptions about the global economic order .
In the two months since his return to office, Trump has put an additional 20% tariff on all Chinese goods and imposed an extra 25% duty on steel and aluminum imports.
China reported weaker-than-expected growth in the export sector to start 2025, which was a key engine of China’s economy last year—and which stands to take a hit as tariff barriers rise around the world. China also recently reported a drop in consumer prices for the first time in a year, a reflection of a larger disinflationary environment that has prompted Chinese leaders to call for more spending by households and businesses. Loans and credit data for February also came in below expectations.
On Monday, China said retail sales in the first two months of the year increased 4% from the same period a year earlier, up from December’s 3.7% year-over-year growth, according to figures published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. China combines January and February data each year to iron out distortions brought by the shifting timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Chinese leaders have identified boosting domestic consumption as their top policy priority for 2025, a move that economists say has become critical as Trump administration tariffs hinder Beijing’s ability to rely on exports to boost growth.
China said industrial production in January and February rose 5.9% from a year earlier, more than economists’ expectations for a 5.4% increase but down from the 6.2% year-over-year gain in December.
Production of new energy vehicles, which includes electric vehicles, 3-D printing equipment and industrial robots jumped 48%, 30%, and 27% year-over-year, respectively, according to the data. Investment in buildings, equipment and other fixed assets rose 4.1% for the same period compared with a year prior.
The real-estate sector, a sore spot in China’s economy, continued to struggle. Property investment fell 9.8% year over year during the first two months of the year. New construction starts dropped by about 30% from the year prior.
Many economists say a sustained recovery in China’s property market is essential to repairing consumer sentiment and increasing spending, given how important real estate is to household wealth levels in the country.
China’s headline measure of joblessness, the urban unemployment rate, rose to 5.4% in February, its highest level since February 2023, up from 5.2% in January and 5.1% in December, according to the data. The metric isn’t seasonally adjusted.
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Apple’s growth engine is showing signs of slowing, as rising costs, weaker services growth and AI competition challenge its profitability. With John Ternus taking the helm, the pressure is on to reignite innovation and sustain investor confidence.
3 min
The Apple growth and profit machine is wavering, and the boost from price increases might not be enough to keep it going at historic rates. That dials up the pressure on Apple’s new chief executive, John Ternus.
The company saved the bad news for its earnings call, an hour after it posted its results for the September quarter, projecting that for the current quarter its high-margin services business will continue to slow and that its widely watched gross profit margin will continue to fall.
Apple AAPL -1.83%decrease; down pointing triangle shares had been flat in post-close trading but declined as much as 4% after the company made the projections, which fell short of Wall Street estimates.
The impact of high memory costs are weighing even more heavily on the company, Ternus and Apple Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh said on the company’s earnings call. Apple has stockpiled cheaper components purchased earlier, but those inventories are dwindling.
When Ternus took over as Apple’s third chief executive of the past 29 years on Sept. 1, he inherited sky-high expectations. The men he followed were among the most successful company leaders in American business history. Steve Jobs revolutionized consumer devices multiple times. Tim Cook expanded Jobs’s creation to spectacular heights.
The expectations are reflected in Apple’s huge valuation. Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang noted that Apple stock trades at 36 times next year’s expected earnings, a premium to the overall market, even though its earnings are only expected to grow 1%, which is slower than its tech peers.
“We see insufficient upside to justify the premium,” Yang wrote in an investor note, adding that Apple needs to boost iPhone sales growth and turn around its slowing services business to make him more bullish.
Investors have bid up Apple shares because it has been a port in the AI storm—a reliable and capital-efficient business that stands apart from rivals which are spending hundreds of billions of dollars racing to the AI frontier.
While others invest in data centers, Apple has been pouring its own cash into buybacks and dividends. But that safety may be challenged if Ternus can’t speed up Apple’s innovation engine.
Apple’s lagging performance in AI was evident when its new “Siri AI” chatbot arrived this past quarter. Its long-maligned assistant was already stale the day it arrived, surpassed by agents such as Instinct and Muse that can complete multistep tasks for consumers, while Siri still sets kitchen timers.
Apple needs to give people reasons to buy its devices as they get more expensive. The company raised prices across the board last quarter to help offset higher costs. Without compelling new features, a big question is whether consumers will slow the frequency of iPhone upgrades.
The new iPhone Duo appears to be a bright spot. Consumers are scooping up the $1,999 foldable smartphone despite mixed reviews—so many that Apple can’t keep up with demand. Shipping dates jumped out to January soon after the device went on sale, a disappointment for the normally reliable Apple supply chain.
Apple said its revenue grew 12% in the September quarter, slightly ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. Its widely tracked gross profit margin, at 47.9%, also came in just ahead of analyst estimates.
Apple will need to find new growth avenues because a reliable engine during the Cook era—the services business—is slowing. Courts and regulators worldwide have limited Apple’s ability to charge developers big fees to distribute apps through its App Store, the biggest component of the company’s services segment.
One of its most lucrative App Store fee generators has been the ChatGPT app from OpenAI. Around the time Apple accused OpenAI of trade-secret theft this past summer, OpenAI began redirecting potential subscribers to pay via its website instead of the App Store, skirting Apple’s tollbooth.
Apple’s valuation has bumped up against a ceiling in recent weeks. Six times it traded above a $5 trillion market capitalization intraday before finally closing above the threshold, which it has already fallen back below.
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