Is China’s Economy Stabilising? Why September’s Data May Disappoint.

China’s economic recovery isn’t gaining the momentum money managers are awaiting.

Data from China Beige Book show that the economic green shoots glimpsed in August didn’t sprout further in September. Job growth and consumer spending faltered, while orders for exports came in at the lowest level since March, according to a monthly flash survey of more than 1,300 companies the independent research firm released Thursday evening.

Consumers’ initial revenge spending after Covid restrictions eased could be waning, the results indicate, with the biggest pullbacks in food and luxury items. While travel remains a bright spot ahead of the country’s Mid-Autumn Festival, hospitality firms and chain restaurants saw a sharp decline in sales, according to the survey.

And although policy makers have shown their willingness to stabilize the property market, the data showed another month of slower sales and lower prices in both the residential and commercial sectors.

Even more troubling are the continued problems at Evergrande Group, which has scuttled a plan to restructure itself, raising the risk of a liquidation that could further destabilise the property market and hit confidence about the economy. The embattled developer said it was notified that the company’s chairman Hui Ka Yan, who is under police watch, is suspected of committing criminal offences.

Nicole Kornitzer, who manages the $750 million Buffalo International Fund (ticker: BUIIX), worries about a “recession of expectations” as confidence continues to take a hit, discouraging people and businesses from spending. Kornitzer has only a fraction of the fund’s assets in China at the moment.

Before allocating more to China, Kornitzer said, she needs to see at least a couple quarters of improvement in spending, with consumption broadening beyond travel and dining out. Signs of stabilisation in the housing market would be encouraging as well, she said.

She isn’t alone in her concern about spending. Vivian Lin Thurston, manager for William Blair’s emerging markets and China strategies, said confidence among both consumers and small- and medium-enterprises is still suffering.

“Everyone is still out and about but they don’t buy as much or buy lower-priced goods so retail sales aren’t recovering as strongly and lower-income consumers are still under pressure because their employment and income aren’t back to pre-COVID levels,” said Thurston, who just returned from a visit to China.

“A lot of small- and medium- enterprises are struggling to stay afloat and are definitely taking a wait-and-see approach on whether they can expand. A lot went out of business during Covid and aren’t back yet. So far the stimulus measures have been anemic.”

Beijing needs to do more, especially to stabilise the property sector, Thurston said. The view on the ground is that more help could come in the fourth quarter—or once the Federal Reserve is done raising rates.

The fact that the Fed is raising rates while Beijing is cutting them is already putting pressure on the renminbi. If policy makers in China wait until the Fed is done, that would alleviate one source of pressure before their fiscal stimulus adds its own.

Italian fine wines are gaining momentum among Australian collectors and drinkers, with new data from showing a surge in interest driven by value, versatility and a new generation of producers.

Long dominated by France, the premium wine conversation is beginning to shift, with Italy increasingly positioned as a compelling alternative for both drinking and collecting.

According to Langtons, the category is benefiting from a combination of factors, including its breadth of styles, strong food affinity and more accessible price points compared to traditional European benchmarks.

“Italy has always offered fine wine fans an incredible range of wines with finesse, nuance, expression of terroir, ageability, rarity, and heritage,” said Langtons General Manager Tamara Grischy.

“There’s no doubt the Italian wine category is gaining momentum in 2026… While the French have long dominated the fine wine space in Australia, we’re seeing Italy become a strong contender as the go-to for both drinking and collecting.”

The shift is being reinforced by changing consumer preferences, with Langtons reporting increased demand for indigenous Italian varieties and lighter, food-first styles such as Nerello Mascalese from Etna and modern Chianti Classico.

This aligns with the broader rise of Mediterranean-style dining in Australia, where wines are expected to complement a wider range of dishes rather than dominate them.

Langtons buyer Zach Nelson said the category’s versatility is central to its appeal.

“Italian wines often have a distinct, savoury edge making them an ideal pairing for a variety of cuisines,” he said.

The move towards Italian wines also comes as prices for traditional French regions continue to climb, particularly in Burgundy, prompting collectors to look elsewhere for value without compromising on quality.

Italy’s key regions, including Piedmont and Etna, are increasingly seen as offering that balance, with premium wines available at comparatively accessible price points.

Nelson said value is now a defining factor for buyers in 2026.

“Value is the key driver for Australian fine wine consumers… Italian wines are offering exactly that at an impressive array of price points to suit any budget,” he said.

The category is also proving attractive for newer collectors, offering what Langtons describes as “accessible prestige” and a more open entry point compared to the exclusivity often associated with Bordeaux.

Wines such as Brunello di Montalcino and Nebbiolo-based expressions are increasingly being positioned as entry points into cellar-worthy collections, combining ageability with relative affordability.

At the same time, a new generation of Italian producers is reshaping the category, moving away from heavier, oak-driven styles towards wines that emphasise site expression and vibrancy.

“There’s definitely a ‘new guard’ of Italian winemaking… stripping away the makeup… to let the raw, vibrating energy of the site speak,” Nelson said.

Langtons is also expanding its offering in the category, including exclusive access to wines from family-owned producer Boroli, alongside a broader selection spanning Piedmont, Veneto, Sicily and Tuscany.

The company will showcase the category further at its upcoming Italian Collection Masterclass and Tasting in Sydney, featuring more than 50 wines from 23 producers across four key regions.

For collectors and drinkers alike, the message is clear: Italy may have been overlooked, but it is no longer under the radar.

Is China’s Economy Stabilising? Why September’s Data May Disappoint.

Italian wines are emerging as a serious contender for Australian collectors, offering depth, rarity and value as French benchmarks continue to climb.