Luxury residential rents remained strong globally in 2023, outperforming capital values in 28 of the 30 cities tracked in the Savills World Cities Index, according to a report from the British real estate company on Wednesday.
On average, luxury rents increased by 5.1% last year, compared to the average home price growth of 2.2%.
“In the face of economic uncertainty, the prime residential rental market proved resilient in 2023,” said Kelcie Sellers, associate at Savills World Research. “Continuing a trend from the past year, prime rental value growth outpaced capital values, largely driven by a lack of stock in global prime markets and increased levels of demand from individuals and families who would look to purchase a property, but are holding off until the economic and interest rate situations stabilise.”
Lisbon was by far the leader in rental growth, with luxury rents increasing by an average of 39% over the year and by 22% in just the second half of 2023, according to the report.
“Lisbon has seen an influx of people moving to the city, attracted to its climate, the quality of life on offer and strong business environment. But some have been more reluctant to enter the purchase market in Lisbon due to rising house prices and increasing interest rates,” Sellers said. “While the supply of houses in the rental market has not kept pace with demand, leading to a rise in rental prices throughout Portugal, it remains comparatively priced compared to other rental markets in Europe and will likely continue to attract new renters and investors over the coming year.”
Singapore led the Asia-Pacific region, with its rental growth at 12.3%, though that was down from 32.3% in 2022. Hong Kong also saw luxury rents increase, jumping by 5.9%, as high deposit requirements, increased interest rates and an influx of buyers from Mainland China drove would-be buyers to the rental market, according to Savills.
As for the year ahead, a slight increase in luxury rents is expected across the 30 global cities, though the price growth may be less than usual.
“Looking at the year ahead, prime rental prices are forecast to record a slight increase for the 30 cities covered in the World Cities index, as would-be prime buyers continue to turn to rental markets, but this growth will likely remain below the historic average,” Sellers said.
Savills predicts that Amsterdam will lead this year’s rental growth index, with a forecasted increase of 6% to 7.9%, as the city has seen a spike in demand in tandem with limited supply and increased regulations on the private rented sector.
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Hong Kong’s superluxury homes have lost more than a quarter of their value. Prices haven’t hit the bottom yet.
China’s economic slowdown is wreaking havoc on Hong Kong’s luxury property market .
The most expensive homes in the city are changing hands at steep discounts to what they were worth just a few years ago. Chinese property tycoons, struggling to contain the fallout of their collapsing business empires, have become forced sellers. Bank lenders are seizing properties after luxury homeowners miss loan payments.
The average selling price of superluxury homes, defined as those worth more than the equivalent of $38 million, has fallen by more than a quarter since the middle of 2022, said Cherrie Lai, senior director and head of residential sales in Hong Kong at Savills . It will fall further this year as sellers accept reduced prices to cash out quickly, she said.
The slide in prices shows the fallout of China’s sputtering economy, which is suffering from deflation , slowing exports and moribund consumer confidence. A continuing real-estate slowdown in China is proving particularly painful, since the country’s big-spending property magnates were behind some of Hong Kong’s biggest luxury-property deals in recent years.
Hong Kong’s property market has also been squeezed by rising interest rates in the U.S. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the city’s de facto central bank matches Federal Reserve interest-rate increases. But the U.S. market has held up much better: Nine-figure home sales in places such as California and Florida have skyrocketed , and luxury-home prices in the top 5% of the U.S. market have soared over the past decade.
The luxury homes up for grabs in Hong Kong include three mansions linked to collapsed real-estate company China Evergrande , said Victoria Allan, founder of Habitat Property. Local media reported they were ultimately owned by Hui Ka Yan , the company’s founder.
The three properties, which are adjacent mansions on a hillside road known as Black’s Link, have been seized by creditors. House 10B was sold for about $115 million in 2019 but it is now valued by banks at roughly $55 million, said Allan. It has yet to find a buyer. The other two properties could be put on the market next month, she said.
Chen Hongtian, the mainland-Chinese founder of property-investment firm Cheung Kei Group, bought a luxury high-rise apartment occupying an entire floor in a building designed by architect Frank Gehry in 2015, paying about $49.5 million. It was later seized by a creditor, according to official records. In September, shipping magnate Kwai Sze Hoi bought the property for $53.4 million, records show, below what property agents said was a market valuation of about $87 million at the time.
Homes seized by creditors usually sell at a discount to market prices, property agents say.
A waterfront house at Residence Bel-Air, a luxury residential development, belonged to Mai Fan , the chief executive of Kaisa Group —another developer that defaulted as China’s property crisis widened in recent years. He acquired the house through a company called Million Link Development in 2017, corporate and land records show, at a time when property prices were still climbing. Receivers were appointed to handle the property in 2021 and sold the house the following year for about $46 million, according to the land registry.
In one of Hong Kong’s top sales in recent years, a local businessman sold his house for the equivalent of about $107 million last month, well below the initial asking price of $166 million, according to Savills. It is located on Hong Kong’s Victoria Peak, a mountaintop neighbourhood that is home to business moguls and celebrities living in some of the city’s most expensive properties.
“China still has very wealthy people, but they’re a different group now,” said Victor Cheng, a realtor in Hong Kong. “They’re not the highflying property moguls but those who may not have made as much when China grew rapidly but whose businesses grew steadily.”
He said the new breed of luxury-home buyer in Hong Kong is cash-rich and less likely to load up on debt.
Some mainland Chinese homeowners have been forced or pressured to sell—often at around 20% below market prices—because they need cash to pay off debt, said Cheng. Some top executives from the mainland previously bought trophy homes and only used them occasionally without renting them out, he said.
Data analysed by online real-estate marketplace Spacious.hk suggest a tougher time ahead for luxury homes. The number of sale inquiries on the platform for homes priced at the equivalent of $10 million or above fell 45% in the past 12 months, said Spacious.hk Chief Operating Officer James Fisher. Inquiries for homes under $1.3 million and for those priced between that and $3.2 million fell by 8% and 25%, respectively.
The price index for private homes slumped to a seven-year low by the end of 2023, according to Hong Kong’s Rating and Valuation Department.