Texas Blackout Boosts Macquarie Bank By Up To $270 Million

gas station

The deep freeze that plunged millions of Texans into darkness is rippling through energy markets in unexpected ways, producing a financial windfall for Macquarie bank and severe pain for other companies caught up in the disruption.

The extreme weather froze wind turbines and oil-and-gas wells, closed oil refiners and prompted power stations to trip offline, sending a jolt through energy markets. Wholesale power prices rocketed, as did spot prices for natural gas in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Arkansas.

The turbulence led to a bonanza for commodity traders at Macquarie Group Ltd., whose ability to funnel gas and electricity around the country enabled them to capitalise on soaring demand and prices in states such as Texas.

The bank bumped up its guidance Monday for earnings in the year through March to reflect the windfall. It said that net profit after tax would be 5% to 10% higher than in the 2020 fiscal year. That equates to an increase of up to $273.1 million. In its previous guidance, issued Feb. 9, Macquarie said it expected profits to be slightly down on 2020.

“Extreme winter weather conditions in North America have significantly increased short-term client demand for Macquarie’s capabilities in maintaining critical physical supply across the commodity complex, and particularly in relation to gas and power,” the bank said.

Macquarie’s windfall shows how big profits can be made wagering on relative scarcity of natural gas in a country awash in the fuel.

The U.S. shale-drilling boom unleashed so much gas over the past decade that prices have been depressed to the point that producers with gushers have gone bankrupt. Yet gas buyers, such as power plants and manufacturers, are routinely left paying surging prices when demand peaks during winter storms.

Behind such instances of energy feast and famine is a gas infrastructure system that has failed to keep up with all the drilling. Pipelines laid decades before the shale boom are often in the wrong places, or too small to meet today’s demand. Having space reserved on certain pipelines can become incredibly lucrative when uncharacteristic weather causes swells in demand.

Scarcity in Texas and the Great Plains was amplified last week when temperatures dropped low enough to freeze shut many of the region’s gas wells and other energy infrastructure. Capacity on pipelines into the region became precious. Traders and energy firms that had paid in advance for the right to use these supply routes were suddenly in position to rake in huge profits as utilities vied for fuel deliveries.

Macquarie describes itself as the second-largest marketer of physical gas in North America behind BP PLC, with a team in Houston and access to 80% of pipelines spanning the U.S., according to a person familiar with the matter. The business, which Macquarie has built out for over a decade, received a boost from the acquisition of Cargill Inc.’s North America power and gas division in 2017.

The bank rents access to natural-gas pipelines and electricity networks across the U.S., enabling it to profit when prices in some regions are significantly higher than in others and when consumers are in urgent need of fuel or power. That was the case last week, when frozen energy infrastructure and the closure of oil-and-gas wells set off a race for natural gas among Texas power plants and other consumers.

Macquarie sent large volumes of gas from the north of the U.S. to the south, where the cold weather sent prices soaring last week, the person familiar with the matter said. It supplied electricity in Texas as well as gas to generate electrical power.

At one point, natural gas changed hands for more than $900 per million British thermal units at the ONEOK Gas Transportation hub in Oklahoma, according to commodities data provider S&P Global Platts. By Friday, prices at the hub had fallen back to about $14 per million British thermal units. That was still comparatively high: Benchmark futures for U.S. natural gas, which are tied to delivery at Henry Hub in Louisiana, have generally cost between $2.50 and $3.50 per million British thermal units in recent months.

Shares of Macquarie rose 3.4% on Monday after the company raised its profit outlook. They are now down 2.8% over the past 12 months.

Millions were left without power and heat in Texas last week as the lowest temperatures in decades wreaked havoc on the state’s utilities. Frozen water lines burst and left big residents in cities without safe drinking water. Stores closed because they had no power, which made food and water even more scarce.

Roughly 70 deaths, mostly in Texas, have been attributed to the cold weather, according to the Associated Press. Some are believed to have frozen to death in their homes.

Macquarie last year provided an undisclosed amount of investment capital to upstart Houston-based utility Griddy Energy LLC, whose business model is to pass variable wholesale electricity prices through to customers. Griddy customers complained of paying lofty sums when power prices shot up to thousands of dollars per megawatt hour last week, according to local Texas media reports.

One customer told the Dallas Morning News that his electric bill for five days stood at US$5000, the amount he would normally pay for several years of power. Another told the Dallas-Fort Worth NBC affiliate that he had been charged more than US$16000 for February.

A Griddy spokeswoman said an order by the state utility agency to the operator of the electricity grid to make market prices reflect the scarcity of power pushed up prices for its customers. On Feb. 12, the company started emailing and texting customers to say they might be better off switching providers for a short time to avoid exposure to wholesale prices, she said.

Corporate casualties from the freeze are also starting to emerge. Just Energy Group Inc., a Canada-based energy supplier, on Monday said it faced a financial hit of about US$250 million, in part from buying electricity at sky-high prices in Texas during the cold blast. The company, which said the blow could stop it from continuing as a going concern, saw its shares slump 31%.

In another instance, shares of Atmos Energy Corp. fell 4.4% Monday after the Dallas-based gas supplier said it would have to pay between US$2.5 billion and US$3.5 billion for gas it bought at elevated prices in Texas, Colorado and Kansas. Atmos may issue stock or raise debt to help to pay for the purchases, it said Friday.

German energy company RWE AG said its 2021 earnings would be hit by outages at the company’s wind turbines, as well as from high prices for electricity.

TENNIS COURTS LOB HIGH RETURNS FOR PRIME MARKET

Tennise Courts

Driven by shifting lifestyle changes brought about by COVID-19 and furthered by rising market confidence, new research has outed a dramatic spike in the sale of Australian super-prime properties holding tennis courts.

Knight Frank’s inaugural Australian Residential Tennis Court Premium report has found sales of super-prime property with courts spiked during 2020 – $682.8m transacted across 38 sales, up 230% on 2019’s 14 sales.

Properties with tennis courts commanded a 22% higher sale price than those without, the average price rising by 1.6% to $18 million in 2020. The research also found nearly a quarter (23%) of all super-prime residential 2020 sales were properties with courts.

“In 2020, Sydney saw $436.6 million of tennis court-featured super-prime sales across 22 transactions, although this total volume fell short by 3 per cent of surpassing its highest volume reached in 2018,” said Knight Frank’s Head of Residential Research Michelle Ciesielski.

Beyond volume, a cultural shift driven by the pandemic is said to have heightened purchaser desires.

“Australians transformed the way they lived in 2020 due to COVID-19, with the role of the home expanding to become a place of work, education and vacation due to periodic lockdowns during the pandemic,” added Knight Frank’s National Head of Residential, Shaye Harris.

Based on sales figures since 2011, the top three performing suburbs for super-prime properties with tennis courts were Melbourne’s Toorak (39 sales), Sydney’s Bellevue Hill (23 sales) and Vaucluse and Mosman, which were equal third with 16 sales.

Last June Tennis Australia reported a significant rise in interest in the sport – online booking data across 173 venues revealing that the number of court bookings more than doubled from 10,912 in May 2019 to 22,569 in May 2020.

 

New Suburb Record For Hendra Brisbane

Hendra Brisbane

A six-bedroom, Hampton’s style home located at 38 Newmarket street in the Hendra, Brisbane has broken the suburb record.

The $3.65m sale by Place Ascot’s Patrick McKinnon has set a new standard for the area, with the residence inspected 156 times proper to sale, including 5 virtual inspections.

The home, known as ‘Caulfield House’, was once the residence of champion thoroughbred, Bore Head, winner of the 1965 Caulfield Cup. The home was purchased by racing royalty Caitlin Lavin, daughter of well-known horse owner Peter Lavin.

Caitlin told the media in a recent interview the purchase was totally unplanned and serendipitous.”

The home was reimagined by designers ‘Innovate’, giving the home a sense of modern luxury with coffered ceiling, blackbutt timber floors alongside hand-painted custom joinery.

Elsewhere the home offers three-metre-high ceilings, gourmet kitchen with a double-glazed glass-encased wine room, breakfast bar, and a storage-filled butler’s pantry that links to the residence’s garage.

Along with marble external paving, the alfresco area hosts an outdoor kitchen with in-ground infinity-edge swimming pool and self-contained pool house accommodation converted from the old stables.

Gough Whitlam’s Home Sells Prior To Auction

Gough Whitlam Cabramatta

Intent on preserving a part of Australian political history, former NSW Labor Premier Barrie Unsworth has led a team to purchase the Sydney home of late Prime Minister Gough Whitlam.

Sold for $1.15 million (prior to auction), the achieved price was $400,000 above a guide of $720,000 – $750,000.

Resting at 32 Albert Street in the south-western suburb of Cabramatta, the property was purchased by the Whitlam Heritage Home Fund – a public company established by Mr Unsworth, Gough’s son Nick Whitlam, NSW Labor president Mark Lennon and Unions NSW secretary Mark Morey.

The Fund is focused on the restoration of the property to its original state and its preservation as a historic site, one which will eventually open to the public.

“The main thing is we have acquired it for posterity,” said Mr Unsworth in a recent interview.

Whitlam lived in the four-bedroom house for 22 years, from 1956 to 1978. The property played a central role in various political moments, including Whitlam’s historic 1972 federal election win for Labor, which came after 23 years of Liberal leadership.

Whitlam served as Prime Minister of Australia from 1972 to 1975.

An Award-Winning Home Hits The Perth Market

Dalkeith

A combination of technology, sustainability and luxury – 42 Hobbs Avenue, Dalkeith, WA is an multi-award-winning home by Giorgi Exclusive Homes is an indulgent display in the sought after enclave of Dalkeith.

The combination of soaring ceiling heights, glass walls and the use of architectural voids sees the residence create a capacious, light filled home spread across an 1103sqm plot.

The 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom, 4-car garage home boasts Carrara marble tiling underfoot that is heated by a cutting edge under-floor hydro cooling and heating system throughout.

The main living area – which sees the lounge, dining – is fitted with a gas fireplace amd extends to one of the three kitchens in the home fitted with Gaggenau appliances and a Corian benchtop, supplemented by a scullery.

Entertaining is not limited to the indoor spaces, with the living area spilling outdoors to the alfresco lounging area replete with outdoor kitchenette, pizza oven and infinity pool. Elsewhere, the residence boasts an expansive wine cellar, including temperature-controlled cellaring.

The main bedroom sees an oversized ensuite, complete with marble adornments along with an elongated walk-in robe. The other bathrooms throughout the residence match with marble tiling.

Also upstairs is a retreat and expansive study area which is accessible via the internal lift or the stairs.

Throughout the home, a number of sustainability measures including underground rainwater tanks and recycled grey water as well as clever features including remote energy management and a smart home system that controls the intercom, lighting and shutters.

Sat in the enviable suburb of Dalkeith it offers the best of Perth’s village life, the residence is nearby Perth Flying Squadron Yacht Club and the Swan River.

The listing is with Shengxi Li from Honsun Realty (+61 487 380 423). Asking price; $7m.

Honsunrealty.com

 

Commercial Market Confidence Slowly Returns

Commercial Market

While Australia has fared better than most countries in its response to COVID-19, the commercial market has taken a hit.

The recovery from the pandemic amplified recession is now, slowly, starting to find the commercial property market sentiment according to NAB’s quarterly commercial sentiment survey which – through its Commercial Property Index –  saw expectations for capital values and rents lift to a still weak -35 pts, well below the overage of 0 pts.

Overall sentiment towards the commercial property market lifted in all states in Q4, although still negative, ranging from -64 pts in VIC to -11 pts in QLD and WA. Market conditions are expected to remain negative in all states in the next 12 months except in WA (+8 pts), with VIC (-51 pts) the least confident.

Longer-term confidence however looks more positive in most states, except VIC (-16 pts) and NSW (-5 pts), with WA (+34 pts) highest.

Sentiment is not consistent across all commercial sectors, CBD hotels registered a score of -64 pts, Retail -58pts and Office -41pts, the industrial sentiment rose sharply (-25 pts) pointing to demand for online retail and requirements for warehousing and logistic spaces as the cause.

Expectations for a stronger near-term recovery in economic activity has boosted overall confidence levels in commercial property markets with an expectation to measure +2 pts in two-years.

On the development front, an above average 54% of property developers plan to start new works in the short-term (next 6 months), up from 39% in Q3.

Further, the rental outlook across commercial markets is less decisive, with Retail (-3.9% & -1.8%) and Office (-2.7% & -1.4%), with the outlook weakest in the Eastern seaboard states. The outlook for Industrial rents (1.4% & 2.1%) has however improved sharply.

Melbourne To Hold 1000 Auctions This Weekend

Melbourne Auction

2020 was a tumultuous year for Melbourne real estate agents and with a snap five-day lockdown which ran from midnight February 12 until midnight Wednesday February 17, 2021 didn’t begin much better.

Melbourne’s first ‘Super Saturday’ of 2021 will now get underway weekend with the lockdown and restrictions to end on Wednesday night.

It comes with the city due to hold an incredible 1004 auctions this week ending Sunday, February 21. A significant jump from last week’s sales which saw 299 homes sold with a clearance rate of 91 per cent – this, despite the stage four lockdown measures.

This weekend, on-site inspections and auctions will be allowed to resume – as long as social distancing is adhered to and there is a one person per 2sqm if electronic record keeping is in use. Without electronic record keeping, a limit of one person per 4sqm applies.

Darwin Market Records Strong Growth

Darwin
The December quarter saw the Darwin property market enjoy a spike in sales volumes, up more than 20 per cent alongside rising median property prices.
A new report from the Real Estate Institute of the Northern Territory (REINT) detailed the state capital’s strong end to 2020, with ascendent median house and unit prices. 
According to the REINT’s ‘Real Estate Local Market (REALM) Report’, the median price of units outpaced that of housing, up 6.7 per cent against the 4.2 per cent rise in the median price of detached dwellings.  
Growth covered wider Darwin except for the north east. The current median house price in the city is now $500,000, with units at $320,000.
Elsewhere, Katherine saw a surging 73.7 per cent rise in sales volume, with Tennant Creek up 50 per cent and Alice Springs continuing its move along a robust growth corridor, up 36 per cent.

“While it is far from the peaks of 2014, this has been the most positive year in over half a decade and bodes well for continued growth into 2021,” said REINT chief executive Quentin Kilian.

Median rents also increased in the Greater Darwin Area by 6.9 per cent (houses) and 6.6 per cent (units), with rental yields strong for the investor set – house yields rising to 5.3 per cent and unit yields steady at 5.9 per cent.

Bitcoin Briefly Crossed US$50K. Regulators Are Circling.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s climb above US$50,000 for the first time on Tuesday marks a psychological milestone for investors—but it could trigger extra regulatory scrutiny.

The move higher means the cryptocurrency has more than doubled in value in just two months after several splashy news announcements. The gains come after a 303% increase in Bitcoin’s price last year.

In recent trading, Bitcoin was selling for $48.726. Bitcoin was up more than 4% earlier on Tuesday but has retreated back. Its price is up nearly 70% so far this year.

This month, Elon Musk’s Tesla (ticker: TSLA) said it bought $1.5 billion of Bitcoin and will start accepting it as payment for its electric vehicles at some point soon. BNY Mellon said it would hold, transfer, and issue Bitcoin for clients, and Mastercard (MA) said it would integrate Bitcoin into its payments network this year.

A possible catalyst for Tuesday’s move higher: MicroStrategy (MSTR), a business-intelligence company that has become a Bitcoin investing platform, said it would sell $600 million of convertible notes to buy the crypto. It sold $650 million of notes in December to do the same thing.

Shares of MicroStrategy fell 3.7% on Tuesday but are up 570% over the past year, compared with the S&P 500’s 16.7% one-year gain.

Bitcoin was once dismissed as a quirky sideshow in finance, with a shadowy history and cultlike following. Its increasingly mainstream appeal puts a spotlight on regulation as banks and professional traders take it seriously.

Earlier this month, newly confirmed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told an industry innovation policy roundtable that she sees “the promise” of these new currencies. “But I also see the reality: Cryptocurrencies have been used to launder the profits of online drug traffickers; they’ve been a tool to finance terrorism.”

President Joe Biden’s nominee to head the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, is also well-versed in crypto, having spent the past few years teaching about digital currency and the blockchain technology that underlies it at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will come under the spotlight from watchdogs like never before and this can be expected to create volatility in the market,” said Nigel Green, the founder and CEO of U.K.-based deVere Group, a financial advisory firm.

DeVere sold half its Bitcoin holdings in December, when the price had surged to $25,000.

Green said in a December blog post about the sale that it was to take profit after last year’s run-up. “It was not due to a lack of belief in Bitcoin, or the concept of digital currencies,” the post said.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said Tesla’s embrace of Bitcoin could be a “game-changer” for the crypto. “We believe the trend of transactions, Bitcoin investments, and blockchain-driven initiatives could surge over the coming years,” he said. “This Bitcoin mania is not a fad, in our opinion, but rather the start of a new age on the digital currency front.”

More financial and payment companies are pushing Bitcoin into the mainstream. Robinhood, Square (SQ), and PayPal Holdings (PYPL) allow Bitcoin trading. Fidelity Investments has a business to store and trade crypto.

And more are considering jumping in. In January, asset management giant BlackRock (BLK) gave two of its funds the go-ahead to invest in crypto.

A unit of Morgan Stanley’s (MS) asset-management business is reportedly examining adding it as an option for investors. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Co-President Dan Pinto said last week client demand isn’t there yet, but it will get there.

“If over time an asset class develops that is going to be used by different asset managers and investors, we will have to be involved,” Pinto said on CNBC.

China Blocked Jack Ma’s Ant IPO After An Investigation Revealed Who Stood To Gain

Jack Ma

When China’s leader Xi Jinping late last year quashed Ant Group’s initial public offering, his motives appeared clear: He was worried that Ant was adding risk to the financial system, and furious at its founder, Jack Ma, for criticising his signature campaign to strengthen financial oversight.

There was another key reason, according to more than a dozen Chinese officials and government advisers: growing unease in Beijing over Ant’s complex ownership structure—and the people who stood to gain most from what would have been the world’s largest IPO.

In the weeks before the financial-technology giant was scheduled to go public, a previously unreported central-government investigation found that Ant’s IPO prospectus obscured the complexity of the firm’s ownership, according to the officials and government advisers, who had knowledge of the probe. Behind layers of opaque investment vehicles that own stakes in the firm are a coterie of well-connected Chinese power players, including some with links to political families that represent a potential challenge to President Xi and his inner circle.

Those individuals, along with Mr. Ma and the company’s top managers, stood to pocket billions of dollars from a listing that would have valued the company at more than $300 billion.

During his eight years as president, Mr. Xi has sidelined many of his rivals, and his hold on power now compares to that of Mao Zedongr.

His initiatives have included campaigns against corruption, real-estate speculation and other high-risk financial activities. Mr. Xi has used the antigraft crusade to target both actual corruption as well as to strengthen his own hold on power. Ant’s IPO plan represented the kind of payday and accumulation of wealth that Mr. Xi has long frowned on.

An Ant spokesman said in a statement that the details of Ant’s shareholding structure were fully disclosed in the group’s prospectus and in its public business registration records.

Before the probe, regulators at the central bank were already worried about Ant’s business model. The company owns a mobile payments app called Alipay that is used by more than a billion people. It gives Ant voluminous data on consumers’ spending habits, borrowing behaviors and bill- and loan-payment histories, which the company has used to build a financial-services giant.

It has made loans to close to half a billion people, operates the country’s largest money-market fund and sells scores of other financial products. But it hasn’t had to follow the tough regulations and capital requirements that commercial banks are subject to. It makes profits from the transactions, while state-owned banks supply the majority of the funding and take on most of the risk.

“On one hand, you got a bunch of individuals potentially amassing large amounts of wealth,” one of the people familiar with the probe into the shareholders said. “Then on the other hand, much of the risk has been transferred to the state side.”

In a late-October speech, Mr. Ma harshly criticized regulators for rules he said were unnecessary and held back technology innovation. He infuriated top financial officials—some of whom were in the room for the speech.

The public blast of the state’s regulatory powers, coupled with the investigation into Ant’s ownership structure—which had started even before Mr. Ma’s speech—formed the basis for Mr. Xi’s decision to shut down Ant’s IPO and force the company to scale back lending and other banklike services, according to the people familiar with the probe.

Mr. Xi at the same time launched a campaign to rein in China’s technology sphere overall to prevent big firms like Ant from using their size and their troves of consumer data to engage in anticompetitive practices.

The moves indicate that after years of using a light hand with tech entrepreneurs, Mr. Xi is making greater demands for them to be aligned with the political priorities of the day.

Alarm bells

Some of Ant’s investors and the way their stakes were structured set off alarm bells as regulators dove into the details of the prospectus, the people familiar with the investigation said.

One is Boyu Capital, a private-equity firm founded in part by Jiang Zhicheng, the grandson of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin. Many of Mr. Jiang’s allies have been purged in Mr. Xi’s anticorruption campaign, though he remains a force behind the scenes.

Another stakeholder with ties to Mr. Jiang, part of what is called the “Shanghai faction,” is a group led by the son-in-law of Jia Qinglin, a former member of the Politburo Standing Committee, the top echelon of the Communist Party.

Other backers seen as problematic include a real-estate developer who benefited from peer-to-peer lending schemes years earlier—schemes that nonetheless caused scores of investors to lose their life savings when they went bust, the people familiar with the probe said.

Mr. Ma’s connection with Jiang Zhicheng, a Harvard-educated “princeling,” as the offspring of China’s leaders are called, goes back to the years when Mr. Ma was expanding Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., the e-commerce giant that is the source of his wealth as one of China’s richest people, and that eventually spawned Ant Group.

In 2012, the younger Mr. Jiang, also known as Alvin, helped Mr. Ma negotiate a deal to buy out half of Yahoo’s stake in Alibaba. A consortium of investors consisting of Mr. Jiang’s Boyu, China Investment Corp., and the private-equity arms of China Development Bank and Citic Group, all with strong political ties, financed part of the $7.1 billion needed. The nearly 5% stake in Alibaba the consortium received in return soared in value when the company listed on the New York Stock Exchange two years later.

Boyu became one of the early investors in Ant in 2016—although this time in a more roundabout way. Its base in Hong Kong was a potentially sticky issue at a time when Chinese regulations restricted “offshore,” or outside the mainland, ownership of payment services, a core part of Ant’s business.

According to commercial records viewed by The Wall Street Journal, Boyu first set up a subsidiary in Shanghai, which invested in a Shanghai-based investment firm. That firm then invested in a private-equity firm called Beijing Jingguan Investment Center, which in turn bought shares in Ant.

Beijing Jingguan is listed as one of 16 investors that provided a total of 29.1 billion yuan, or about $4.5 billion, to Ant in 2016. It also joined another group of funds that invested 21.8 billion yuan in Ant in 2018. Both investments gave Beijing Jingguan a nearly 1% stake in the company, according to Ant’s IPO document, putting it among its top 10 shareholders. The prospectus doesn’t mention Boyu’s involvement with Beijing Jingguan.

Mr. Jiang and other Ant investors mentioned in this article declined to comment.

Another stakeholder behind layers of investment vehicles is Beijing Zhaode Investment Group, controlled by Li Botan, the son-in-law of Mr. Jia, the former Politburo Standing Committee member with strong ties to Jiang Zemin.

Among China’s business and political elites, Mr. Li is best known for having helped establish in 2009 the Maotai Club, a private club in a historic house near Beijing’s Forbidden City that had been a haunt for princelings and their patrons until recent years.

Since he took power in late 2012, Mr. Xi has directed his ire at corruption in the party and the tales of members’ lavish banquets and harems of mistresses that had turned ordinary Chinese into cynics. Events like those held by Mr. Li’s Maotai Club were seen by the leader as harmful to the party. “You people, you either eat and drink yourselves into the grave, or die between the sheets,” he said at a meeting with senior officials earlier in his tenure, according to people briefed on the remarks.

Mr. Xi had little interest in having the Ant IPO funnel enormously lucrative financial stakes to well-known Chinese princelings, the people familiar with the probe said. For the leader, that could only widen the income gap and hurt his initiative to reduce poverty.

‘Red capitalist’

To fend off growing regulatory pressure as Ant became bigger, Mr. Ma made stakes in Ant available to an array of state stalwarts such as the national pension fund and China Investment Corp., the country’s massive sovereign-wealth fund, as well as its largest insurers.

Having such “strategic investors” on board—all poised to profit from the IPO—helped Ant’s stock-listing application sail through various levels of securities regulators last summer, the people familiar with the matter said. The application was approved in a month.

“Jack is very politically savvy,” said Gary Rieschel, a venture capitalist who helped manage Softbank’s investments in Asia in the early 2000s. “But if he hadn’t made them all rich, that wouldn’t have mattered.”

Over the years, with the political connections he garnered, Mr. Ma had become one of the most prominent of the “red capitalists”—tycoons with strong links to rulers—that have been a fixture of Communist reign in China.

For instance, after the 1949 takeover, the party turned to wealthy industrialist Rong Yiren to get the war-torn nation back on its feet. Giving business magnates some leeway and support also has worked in Beijing’s favour. Soon after China started to revamp its planned economy in the early 1980s, Liu Chuanzhi founded what is now Lenovo Group, the world’s largest maker of personal computers, with a loan from the government.

Mr. Ma, 56 years old, started Alibaba in 1999 in his apartment in Hangzhou, the capital of economically vibrant Zhejiang province. Softbank’s chief executive, Masayoshi Son, famously invested $20 million in Alibaba after a short meeting with Mr. Ma a year later. “I could smell him,” Mr. Son, known as a risk taker driven by instinct, recalled in a public talk in 2019. “We’re the same animal.”

The value of Zhejiang’s entrepreneurialism wasn’t lost on Mr. Xi, who ran the province from 2002 to 2007 and encouraged companies like Alibaba to expand.

Freewheeling finance

Some backers found among the layers of Ant’s shareholders highlighted the freewheeling attitude to internet finance, or fintech, the people with knowledge of the probe said. One was the real-estate developer Wang Xiaoxing, who raised funds from peer-to-peer lending firms that regulators say channelled the life savings of some mom-and-pop investors into high-risk financing schemes.

When those lending schemes went bust in the past few years, Ms. Wang found her way to invest in Ant through a private-equity fund set up by China International Capital Corp., or CICC, a leading Chinese investment bank.

Some of Mr. Ma’s longtime friends also gained stakes in Ant through various investment vehicles. They include some of China’s wealthiest individuals, such as property tycoon Lu Zhiqiang; Shi Yuzhu, chairman of the online gaming firm Giant Interactive; and Guo Guangchang, co-founder of Fosun International Ltd.

Mr. Guo’s Fosun, along with several other highflying private companies that took out large loans to finance overseas buying sprees, landed in hot water a few years ago for taking on too much debt. Regulators launched a series of investigations that curtailed the companies’ ability to borrow, shaking China’s business elite.

At a Beijing forum on Oct. 24—the same day Mr. Ma made his critical remarks at a Shanghai venue—Pan Gongsheng, a deputy governor at the People’s Bank of China, hinted at concerns over the nature of Ant’s owners.

“Some nonfinancial companies have blindly expanded into the financial industry,” Mr. Pan said, according to a transcript of his speech at the forum hosted by the prestigious Peking University. “Their shareholding structure and organizational structure are complex, and there are even prominent problems such as cross-shareholding, false capital injection and huge capital extraction,” he added.

Mr. Pan’s remarks were aimed squarely at Mr. Ma’s Ant, people close to the central bank said.

“Shareholding structure is one reason why we need to regulate firms like Ant,” an official at the central bank said.

For years, the kind of innovation Mr. Ma brought into the Chinese economy was in line with the leadership’s goal of turning China into a tech powerhouse. In recent years, Alibaba has also ventured into artificial intelligence and cloud computing, both deemed as key to China’s future.

There was some grumbling among officials in 2014 that Mr. Ma took Alibaba’s listing to New York, but the political environment was still encouraging, as evidenced by official moves to liberalize China’s currency and boost stock investing.

In 2015, that changed. Chinese stock markets crashed as a slowing economy popped a debt-financed stock boom. In the years since, the policy pendulum has shifted in favour of the state sector.

Mr. Ma had planned to list Ant on the new tech-oriented STAR Market in Shanghai, along with the market in Hong Kong, in an effort to please top leadership, according to people close to the company. The STAR Market was developed at the behest of Mr. Xi to create a Chinese stock market for tech firms that would rival Nasdaq.

The gesture did little to ease officials’ concerns about the billionaire’s plans.

Ant will now be restructured mainly as a financial firm subject to the kind of capital requirements applied to banks. The more stringent rules mean the firm may have to raise funds to beef up its capital base, opening a door for big state banks or other types of government-controlled entities to buy stakes. Existing shareholders’ stakes could be diluted as a result.

Ant’s key shareholders, senior managers and directors are also expected to be vetted by financial regulators, who will focus on examining their qualifications and sources of capital.

The officials close to the probe said it would take some time for Ant’s restructuring to be completed. “Whether the company can revive its IPO or not is not within the scope of the high-level government agenda right now,” one of the officials said.