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Silver Prices Jump In GameStop-Like Frenzy

Silver Bullion

Online investors who spurred a trading frenzy in the shares of GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. have moved onto the global silver market, powering the precious metal to its biggest one-day advance in more than a decade.

Futures prices for silver in New York on Monday settled at their highest level in eight years, the latest work by a loosely knit group of speculators who congregate on social-media platforms including Reddit’s WallStreetBets. Some participants have been contending aggressive buying could power GameStop-like, quadruple-digit percentage gains in other arenas, with some chatter over the weekend focusing on the roughly $50 billion market for silver investments.

The idea of buying silver in unison was mentioned in the popular Reddit forum WallStreetBets last week, then quickly spread to other corners of the internet, even as many Reddit users said they weren’t behind the silver-market advance. Many investors piled into silver bars and coins online, along with silver-linked exchange traded-funds and shares of silver producers.

Many traders with experience in commodities say the trade is highly speculative. There is more than enough silver to meet industrial demand for everything from semiconductors to solar panels, and producers can raise output to take advantage of higher prices. Previous efforts to corner the market have ultimately preceded crashes, most famously when the Hunt brothers are alleged to have artificially boosted silver in 1979 and 1980.

Still, the recent wave of speculation is unlike anything many in commodities have witnessed in the recent past. Shares of miners like First Majestic Silver Corp. and Hecla Mining Co. have been among the stock market’s best performers recently—each rose more than 20% on Monday—while the largest exchange-traded fund tied to silver logged its biggest-ever daily inflow on Friday. Online silver dealers around the country have even reported soaring demand from retail buyers.

“It’s become like the GameStop of commodities,” said Edward Meir, a consultant focused on metals at brokerage ED&F Man Capital Markets. “It doesn’t make any sense…It could be equally ugly on the way down.”

The most actively traded silver futures advanced 9.3% to $29.42 a troy ounce, ending the day at a nearly eight-year high after briefly rising above $30 earlier in the trading session. Prices have risen nearly 15% in the past week, and Monday’s climb marked the metal’s biggest advance since 2009.

Silver’s rally echoed the recent leap in GameStop and AMC, propelled by a phalanx of individual traders gathering online. Highlighting the risks associated with these trades, GameStop shares fell 31% to $225 on Monday. Shares of the struggling videogame retailer are still up some 1,100% in the past month as traders undertake a “short squeeze,” forcing investors who had bet on share-price declines to buy back stock at higher prices to minimize their losses. That trend can add further fuel to rallies.

Professional traders are now weighing whether the flurry of demand from individuals can sustain the climb in silver—a market where trading is still concentrated in a small group of banks.

“They can cause very significant disruption because silver is a market with a history of very, very high volatility,” said Tai Wong, head of metal derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets. “But can they replicate a GameStop? Unlikely.”

Rostin Behnam, the acting chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates markets for silver futures, said the agency is watching the action closely.

“The commission is communicating with fellow regulators, the exchanges, and stakeholders to address any potential threats to the integrity of the derivatives markets for silver, and remains vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation,” Mr Behnam said in a statement Monday.

Silver’s climb to start the week was even more remarkable to market watchers because gold rose only 0.7% and trading in other commodities was muted. Gold and silver often trade in similar directions and are seen as safe-haven investments during times of market turmoil.

Depositories at CME Group’s Comex—the biggest marketplace for silver futures—are brimming with almost 400 million troy ounces of silver, valued at around $12 billion at Monday’s prices. Vaults in London housed 1.1 billion troy ounces—worth $29 billion—at the end of 2020, according to the London Bullion Market Association.

Monday’s advance followed a weekend rush to buy the physical metal—which is used in electronics, jewellery and photography. Retail silver marketplaces including Money Metals and APMEX Inc. had notices on their websites Sunday saying they were unable to process new orders until markets opened because of unprecedented demand.

On Monday, many popular sites for purchasing silver and gold reported shipping delays or other purchase restrictions.

“Precious metals have never seen such a sudden surge in new interest,” said Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault. Over the weekend, openings of new accounts at the online marketplace for gold and silver rose to almost four times the daily average from 2020, itself a record year since BullionVault went live in 2005, he said.

Many traders and analysts are baffled by the moves in silver and said the logic behind a “short squeeze” is also questionable.

In GameStop’s case, hedge funds that had bet against the stock were forced to buy the retailer’s shares when individual investors drove the price higher to avoid bigger losses, propelling the shares even more. But for silver, hedge funds and other speculators actually have a net long position and stand to benefit from rising prices, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

“This is just a speculative boom,” said Georgette Boele, senior precious-metals strategist at ABN Amro Bank.

A broad attempt by day traders to corner the market in silver wouldn’t be the first time someone has tried to dominate the precious metals market. Analysts have alleged price manipulation in the silver market going back several decades, including the episode with the Hunt brothers more than four decades ago.

Traders are also watching big inflows into the largest ETF tied to silver, the iShares Silver Trust, and other large funds. These funds and mining stocks are the easiest ways for individuals to bet on higher prices. The fact that silver futures themselves are rising shows that professionals are also trying to profit from the current excitement, traders say.

ETF buying can also add to market momentum because the traders who manage the fund must buy physical silver when investors put more money into the ETF. As a result, large inflows signal that the metal is in high demand.

Still, many professionals warn the silver rally will also end badly.

“It’s devoid of any fundamentals,” Mr Meir said.

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All Aboard the Stock-Market Solar Coaster

Solar Farms

Solar stocks are sizzling—quite an accomplishment for the simplest and most mature of the green-energy technologies. Finding companies that could keep shining might require looking in less obvious places.

The MAC Global Solar Energy Index has generated a 233% return including dividends for dollar investors during the past year. That is well ahead of returns from wind-turbine makers Vestas and Siemens Gamesa, nevermind the S&P 500’s 15%.

As public and political support for green power has broadened, markets have come to expect a decadeslong renewables rollout. It is hard to see any catalyst for a change in sentiment, says Sam Arie, a veteran utilities analyst at UBS. Solar panels can be the cheapest way to generate electricity in many parts of the world. “In some cases it is even cheaper to build a new solar farm than run existing coal plants,” says Alex Monk, a portfolio manager at asset manager Schroders.

The catch is that the shift to renewables doesn’t guarantee shareholder returns. To justify high valuations, investors need to ensure companies have a defensible business as well as growth prospects.

Solar investors have already experienced at least two stomach-churning cycles. A key lesson has been that making panels themselves is a low-margin, hypercompetitive market best avoided. But other parts of the value chain offer better prospects.

For example, SolarEdge and Enphase make power inverters, which convert a solar panel’s power to alternating current and adjust performance to maximize output. Their Nasdaq-listed shares have returned 179% and 444% respectively during the past year and now trade for 72 and 93 times forward earnings. That is a lot of growth priced in. However, the technologies are patent-protected and could also be central to managing a smart home’s power between electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and the like—a potentially vast market.

Developers are another option. They bid for, build and run solar farms. While installing the panels isn’t complex, experience is valuable when pricing bids and navigating the permitting process, and scale is crucial to sourcing panels effectively.

NextEra Energy, Enel and Iberdrola have built huge renewable-power farms as part of wider utility businesses and have ambitious rollout plans for solar and wind. Their shares have given investors total returns of between 16% and 28% over a year, and now change hands for between 15 and 32 times forward earnings. Barclays utilities analyst Dominic Nash credits part of the rise to general growth investors coming into the sector for the first time.

Then there are U.S. residential developers, which offer homeowners rooftop solar-panels paired with battery storage. The products provide added reliability, and monthly payments for the cost of batteries and solar panels that are often lower than existing utility bills. “It’s a pretty easy sale,” says Stephen Byrd, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Shares in SunPower and Sunrun, two such developers, trade at Tesla-type multiples, 118 times and 360 times forward earnings respectively. Revenues will grow—U.S. solar penetration will rise from 3% now to 14% by 2030, says Mr. Byrd—but margins will also come under pressure once installers compete head-to-head rather than with incumbent utilities.

Investors need to choose carefully as the stock-market solar coaster speeds up again. The general direction of travel may be up, but it likely still has plenty of twists and turns in store.

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Vaccination Delays Put Global Rebound at Risk

COVID 19 Vaccinations

Timetables for vaccinating enough people to effectively curb Covid-19 are slipping in many countries, raising fears that a large portion of the world will still be battling the pandemic and its economic effects well into 2022 or beyond.

While the U.S. and some other mostly small countries are making progress toward vaccinating most of their populations by late summer, health experts and economists are concluding that much of the planet—including parts of Europe, Asia and Latin America—face a longer slog.

Places from Germany to Mexico are running into serious problems sourcing sufficient vaccines. Other countries with low caseloads are less pressed to start vaccination campaigns and aren’t eager to reopen borders anytime soon.

At the current rates of vaccination, only about 10% of the world would be inoculated by the end of the year and 21% by the close of 2022, UBS says. Just 10 countries are on track to vaccinate more than one-third of their population this year.

The UBS data includes hard-hit middle-income countries such as South Africa where vaccination rates are expected to be painfully slow, though some countries it measured are expected to increase the pace of vaccinations soon.

But richer regions such as Europe are also facing delays. European officials in recent days watched as their goal of vaccinating 70% of the population by summer looked unachievable after doses ran out in some places, with just 2% of European Union residents covered so far.

The differing pace in vaccine rollouts world-wide raises the prospect of divergent economic fortunes for the world’s main economic blocs, at least in the near term. The U.S. economy could grow by 5.1% this year, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts, but recoveries of the eurozone and developing economies have become more uncertain given vaccination delays.

The U.S. and a few other countries could wind up enjoying many benefits of herd immunity but still be unable to fully mend their economies because they are waiting on other places to catch up. With borders shut globally, some businesses even in vaccinated countries would have to rely on domestic demand.

“So long as the pandemic terrorizes part of the world, normality will not be restored anywhere,” said Erik Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit Bank.

Uneven vaccine distribution also means that Covid-19 could keep circulating for years, especially in nations such as Brazil and South Africa, where new infections are vastly outpacing inoculations. Both have become breeding grounds for more infectious new strains. In time, virologists expect the virus could mutate—in particular, modifying the shape of its outer protein spikes—an outcome they fear might ultimately render our current vaccines less effective.

Many scientists and policy makers predicted immunization programs would take a long time. Still, the unusually rapid development of vaccines raised hopes that 2021 would mark a return to normal for most of the world. Economists began upgrading their forecasts.

Global growth is still expected to be strong this year, and residents of many countries including the U.S. will undoubtedly see restaurants filling up and other signs of progress. The recovery is already so strong in some places that supplies of semiconductors are running short.

The U.S. and U.K. also experienced some early delays rolling out vaccine campaigns, only to see distribution pick up as snags were worked out.

Still, the outlook is growing considerably more uncertain elsewhere.

Borders are closing across much of Europe. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said last week the country would continue to bar international visitors through most of 2021. A senior Australian health official recently made a similar prediction, in part because it isn’t clear whether Covid-19 vaccines prevent transmission of the virus or just stop people from getting severely ill.

Even the world’s fastest-vaccinating country—Israel—remains in a lockdown, with international flights banned indefinitely.

“This assumption that when Jan. 1 came we could just burn the old calendar and everything would be fine is proving to be a wildly optimistic view,” said Robert Carnell, an ING Group economist in Singapore.

The World Bank has forecast that remittances to the developing world—a vital lifeline—will fall 7.5% this year, after a 7% drop in 2020. Concert halls and schools might remain closed longer than expected.

Hotels in places such as Southeast Asia and the Pacific aren’t expecting business to fully rebound until the middle of next year. Many international students could be absent from university campuses until mid-2022.

“I’ve just been on the phone this morning to some lovely American clients,” said Mark Fraenkel, who owns Blue Dive Port Douglas, a scuba-diving business near Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. “I said, ‘Let’s not book you for 2021. We’ll just have to cancel.’ ”

Shippers, including DHL, are expecting air freight to get tighter for the first part of this year, not better, because fewer planes are flying to carry cargo. Discussions at the United Nations to normalize air traffic by creating a vaccine passport or even a common set of rules for tests are snagged in U.N. bureaucracy.

Intercontinental flight traffic won’t return to 2019 levels until 2023 at the earliest, the International Air Transport Association forecasts.

“We’re talking about years rather than months, and it’s partly related to the two-speed vaccination,” said Senior IATA Vice President Nick Careen. “We need governments to agree on a process; we can’t continue to operate like this.”

A central problem is that it is proving hard to scale up vaccine production quickly. Delayed deliveries can have domino effects on other buyers.

In Europe, where several top vaccines are made, production issues emerged last month with factories saying they couldn’t keep up. Frustrated, the EU introduced new measures on Friday that would let it block exports to wealthier countries, such as Canada, Japan or the U.S.

Slow production at a Belgian plant has meant Canadian officials recently received 70% fewer doses of a Pfizer vaccine. The same troubles have left Japan struggling to get doses it needs to vaccinate its population by the end of June, a crunch that may mean few fans for Tokyo’s Summer Olympics in July.

“I can’t tell you which month,” said Taro Kono, the minister in charge of Japan’s vaccine rollout, when asked when the general public could get immunized.

China also faces challenges. Although it has started inoculations using homegrown vaccines, without providing a firm timeline for reaching herd immunity, approvals and production arrangements have come more slowly than anticipated, according to Trivium China, a consultancy.

In one sign of the difficulties, the Beijing government’s talent office said that vaccine producer Sinovac is struggling to hire new staff.

“The main issue is production volume,” said Guo Wei, deputy secretary general of the health-care logistics association at the government-backed China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in an interview. He said that based on production estimates by China’s vaccine makers, the country wouldn’t be able to reach herd immunity this year.

Trivium estimates that a total of 850 million doses is the high end of what is possible for China this year, while administering at least 1.68 billion doses would be considered full inoculation. The Economist Intelligence Unit doesn’t rule out some major Chinese cities reaching herd immunity this year but estimates that the country as a whole likely won’t be able to reach it until late 2022.

Any production delays in China could affect other countries. Morocco planned to vaccinate 80% of its population in the coming months, in part using Chinese vaccines, but officials say they haven’t received all the supplies they need and have blamed manufacturers that can’t keep up.

Analysts doubt other countries can reach their stated targets. In Indonesia, officials want to vaccinate 65% of a population of 270 million in 15 months, which would more likely take three to four years, according to analysts at IMA Asia. The Philippines aims to vaccinate 70 million people this year.

“We doubt if half the 2021 goal can be reached,” IMA Asia said in a recent report.

Latin America’s two largest countries, Brazil and Mexico, have so far immunized just 0.8% and 0.5% of their populations, respectively. Argentina planned to receive five million doses of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine in January, but only 800,000 have been delivered because of production delays in Russia.

Nigeria’s 206 million people have only one delivery scheduled, of 100,000 doses, expected next month.

Meanwhile, more people are putting plans on hold.

Mohammed Waqas, a 25-year-old in London, initially aimed to start a master’s program in teaching at an Australian university in February. Mr Waqas decided to defer enrollment until at least July because Australia’s border is closed to most international visitors. If the border isn’t open by July, he could defer until 2022.

“I’m one year behind where I would like to be,” Mr Waqas said.

—Chao Deng, Peter Landers and Samantha Pearson contributed to this article.

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An Opulent Penthouse In The Heart Of Melbourne

7 Bowen Crescent

Emanating luxury, this breathtaking penthouse at 7 Bowen Crescent, in Melbourne offers elevated finishes, grand proportions and uninterrupted views of the city skyline, Port Phillip Bay and Albert Park Lake.

The David Hicks designed penthouse sets an opulent benchmark in apartment living offering 4-bedrooms, 4-bathrooms and 4-car parking spread across 439sqm and two floors.

Upon entry, the residence features dark stained American oak parquetry flooring across a palatial open plan layout. It’s here the living, dining and entertaining space is surrounded by 270-degree full height glass – giving access to the aforementioned sensational views and highlighting the penthouse’s soaring ceiling heights.

The living area then extends out on to an expansive, private, sun-terrace – ideal for entertaining – especially come time for the Australian Grand Prix (when it returns).

Inside, the kitchen offers Carrara marble finishes alongside Gaggenau appliances and integrated Liebherr refrigeration.

Also on the main level is the main bedroom, complete with a deluxe dressing room and bespoke cabinetry, alongside a marble ensuite. Elsewhere, two additional bedrooms arrive with marble ensuites and built-in robes.

Further, the living space features a sculptural spiral staircase – leading up to the versatile fourth bedroom, replete with office space – and a gas fireplace. There is also an internal lift servicing both levels.

The residence also offers underfloor heating in the bathrooms, video intercom, remote blinds, and powder room.

Purchasing the penthouse gives owners access to the Albert Place’s hotel-style amenities including the indoor pool and sauna, valet parking, concierge and lounge amenities and two private Vintech wine fridges offering approximately 300 bottles of storage.

The home is enviably located within walking distance of the Botanic Gardens, the Domain, Albert Park Lake, South Yarra and South Melbourne shopping and restaurant precincts.

The listing is with Marshall White’s Nicholas Hoo (+61 435 728 272) and Mark Harris +61 414 799 343. Price guide $8-8.8m.

Marshallwhite.com.au

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Robinhood Blocks Buying in GameStop, AMC, and Other Stocks. Other Brokers Also Add Guardrails.

Robinhood Blocks Trading

Investing app Robinhood blocked access to GameStop and other highflying names on Thursday as trading surged among retail users.

The move comes after GameStop (GME) stock has shot higher over the past week, inspiring a short squeeze. The action — driven by retail traders often using options — has spread to other names like BlackBerry (BB), AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). Several of those stocks were falling in premarket trading after enormous run-ups in the past few days.

Users began reporting that they couldn’t trade GameStop and other stocks on Thursday. They got a message that “This stock is not supported on Robinhood.”

In a statement on Thursday, Robinhood detailed which stocks now had restrictions. “In light of recent volatility, we are restricting transactions for certain securities to position closing only,” the company said. These include AMC Entertainment, BlackBerry, Bed Bath & Beyond, Express (EXPR), GameStop, Koss (Koss), Naked Brand Group (NAKD), and Nokia (NOK).

“We also raised margin requirements for certain securities,” Robinhood said. The trading platform is raising margin requirements for investors in GameStop and AMC to 100%, Robinhood told Barron’s on Wednesday.

On Thursday morning, Robinhood was also reporting outages.

Other brokers have instituted similar restrictions. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) on Wednesday put AMC, BlackBerry, Express, GameStop, and Koss option trading into liquidation “due to the extraordinary volatility in the markets,” the company said.

“In addition, long stock positions will require 100% margin and short stock positions will require 300% margin until further notice,” the company said. “We do not believe this situation will subside until the exchanges and regulators halt or put certain symbols into liquidation only. We will continue to monitor market conditions and may add or remove symbols as may be warranted.”

TD Ameritrade (AMTD) also placed restrictions on some transactions in GameStop and other securities, the broker said on Wednesday. A spokeswoman didn’t specify exactly what the company was doing but said it could include “actions like increasing margin requirements, or limiting certain types of transactions, like short sales and those that may involve unlimited risk. It is not uncommon for us to make such decisions, which we consider on an individual basis, in the interest of mitigating risk.”

“We have been adjusting our requirements for several days as we continued to see trends indicating unusual volume in an unprecedented market environment, which appear to be divorced from traditional market fundamentals,” the company said. “We have made what we believe to be prudent and appropriate decisions to place some limits on certain transactions for certain securities.”

And fast-growing privately held broker Webull said it was limiting some activities, too.

“Webull has been very successful in limiting our intraday risk during the course of these events by not allowing any short positions in these volatile names since as early as Friday of last week,” CEO Anthony Denier told Barron’s. “Trading has been open for these stocks and uninterrupted amidst this volatility and the only new restrictions we have placed is not allowing market orders opening of new multi-leg option strategy positions.”

Robinhood has grown faster than the rest of the industry over the past year, attracting younger investors. Last year, it said it had more than 13 million account-holders, adding 3 million from January until May. The privately held broker was sued last month by a Massachusetts regulator on allegations that it encourages risky investing among its clientele. The company denied those allegations and said it does not recommend stocks.

On Wednesday night, Robinhood sent a notice to users directing them to educational products in light of the recent volatility.

One trader who has made money in the GameStop trade through his Webull account was frustrated by the new limits.

“It’s one thing if I had a pattern of misconduct, or a lot of violations. It’s another thing for you to tell me that you can’t trade this stock because we don’t like what’s happening to it,” Brandon Luczek, a 28-year-old who lives in Virginia, told Barron’s on Wednesday night. “That’s not for you to decide. I have my own personal risk tolerance.”

Others on reddit’s wallstreetbets forum lashed out at Robinhood. “How in the hell is this legal? They are tanking our legitimately bought and held stocks/options by arbitrarily restricting trading,” one wrote.

 

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Fourteen Years And A Demolition Later, Greg Norman Lists Jupiter Island Home For US$59.9 Million

Greg Norman's Jupiter Island

Over a period of 14 years, golf legend Greg Norman has listed his home, reduced the price of his home, demolished his home and then replaced it with a large family compound filled with every bell and whistle he could think of.

Now he and his wife Kiki Norman have decided to sell, and are listing the customized compound for $59.9 million.

Named Tranquility, the 10-bedroom estate is over 8 acres and has nearly 2970sqm of living space, including the main house, a carriage house, a pool house, a guesthouse and a boathouse, according to the listing.

The home, completed last summer, has sprawling entertainment spaces, a bar, a trophy room and gallery, a large family room, an outdoor terrace, two offices, a luggage room and even a room for accessories like handbags, scarves and costume jewellery. There is also a more than 465sqm basement entertainment suite with a game room, a movie theatre and two 1900-bottle wine cellars.

Greg Norman's Jupiter Island
Photo: Robert Stevens.

“We’re on an island with hundreds of coconut trees, so it was very natural to build a coastal tropical beach house,” said Ms Norman, 52. “My goal was to make the house feel like we were on permanent vacation.”

Many of the home’s interior-design details were inspired by yachts, Ms Norman said, including a pair of navy banquettes in the kitchen custom designed to accommodate all the couple’s grandchildren. She said she also drew inspiration from the couple’s travels to places like St. Barts, the Bahamas, Jamaica and Australia, resulting in the incorporation of lacquered teak and high-gloss mahogany into the finishes.

The property is geared to the couple’s outdoor lifestyle, with a tennis pavilion and a gym. The construction of a pool house with an open terrace and two pools turned out to be a bonus amid the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Greg Norman's Jupiter Island
Photo: Robert Stevens.

“With it being open air, the pool house was the only real safe place to have a meal with a few friends or family that we trusted,” Ms Norman said. The boathouse is also used to accommodate Jet Skis, fishing rods and yacht equipment, and there is dockage for a yacht of roughly 150 feet.

The decision to sell the new home caps Mr Norman’s three decades on the island, which has since become one of the nation’s golf meccas. The area is home to several high-profile courses and training facilities. By 2016, The Wall Street Journal estimated that there were nearly 30 players on the PGA Tour residing in the area, including Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson.

Mr Norman, 65, arrived in Jupiter in 1991, when he was introduced to the lush Florida island by golfer Jack Nicklaus, who lived in the area. Mr Norman was immediately drawn to the area’s laid-back lifestyle, which reminded him of his native Australia, and signed a contract for the house the same day he saw it.

“This gave me a compound where I could create my own private practice world,” Mr Norman said. “I had my own tee box and bunker and putting green. I would come home and people would think I wasn’t practising, but I’d be home practising and getting my game ready for the next week.”

For most of their years there, the Normans lived in a shingled cottage built-in 1902. It had its quirks. Some of the doorways were just 6 feet and 2 inches tall, and the staircase balustrade was just 30 inches high. “It didn’t have any insulation, not in the attic, not in the walls,” he said of the house. “As a matter of fact, it didn’t even have a foundation. It was basically buried into the sand dunes, and there wasn’t any hard foundation underneath.”

Greg Norman's Jupiter Island
Photo: Robert Stevens.

Mr Norman put that property on the market in 2007 for US$65 million but said he was just testing the market. It went on and off the market for roughly a decade and he and Ms Norman dropped the price to US$55 million in 2016. Still no buyers.

“I had a lot of people who came to take a look at it. A lot of my wealthy friends came,” said Mr Norman, noting that most of them concluded the house required too much work. “People wanted to have a turnkey property,” he said.

They decided to keep the property and upgrade it instead. Among the motivating factors was that the couple had a short window to take advantage of a permit they had to expand the property. The provision was sunsetting and wouldn’t be passed on to a new owner.

So three years ago, the couple tore down the existing house. “There one minute gone the next,” Mr Norman tweeted, as he watched a giant excavator tear down his home of close to two decades. Ms Norman snapped a photo as he stood in the giant hole left in the ground and pretended to play a bunker shot.

The Normans said they didn’t expect to be putting the finished product on the market so soon, but the Covid crisis made them re-evaluate their priorities. They want to travel more, they said, and spend more time in Australia with Mr Norman’s family. The couple also recently won their own battles with Covid-19. “This virus kicked the crap out of me like nothing I have ever experienced before,” Mr Norman wrote on Instagram. The couple has since fully recovered.

In addition to listing Tranquility, Mr Norman also recently made a deal to sell his ranch in Colorado, which had been on the market for $40 million, though it has not yet closed, he said.

Jill Hertzberg of the Jills Zeder Group and Michelle Thomson of the Thomson Team at Coldwell Banker Realty have the Florida listing.

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GameStop Is A Bubble In Its Purest Form

Gamestop

GameStop is the platonic ideal of a stock bubble.

A combination of easy money, a real improvement in the company’s prospects, technical support from a short squeeze and a mad rush to get rich or die trying pushed stock in the retailer up 64-fold from late August to Wednesday’s close. Anyone who has held on for 10 days made gains of more than 10 times their money.

It is tempting to see GameStop as merely clownish behaviour in a chat room having some amusing effects on a stock few care about. That would be a mistake.

Sure, the wildly popular Reddit group Wall Street Bets—slogan: like 4chan found a Bloomberg terminal—is full of childish chat. Several users report that they have bet their parents’ pension fund on GameStop or that the boss’s daughter has bought in. There are plenty of calls for the stock to go to $1000 or more (it started the year at $18.84).

But GameStop’s soaring stock—and similar moves in BlackBerry, Nokia and others—is a bubble in microcosm, with lessons for those of us worrying about froth elsewhere in the market.

GameStop’s rise started with some genuine good news, just as bubbles always do. Ryan Cohen, who built up and sold online pet-food retailer Chewy, started building what is now a 13% stake for his RC Ventures in GameStop last year. He pushed for the staid mall-based seller of videogames to improve its internet sales. This month he joined the board.

Mr Cohen’s arrival means GameStop at least has a chance of joining the 21st century. From the first disclosure of his stock purchases in August up to the end of November the shares tripled, helped too by the improved prospects for the vaccine-driven reopening of the economy.

Along the way, some private investors latched on to the stock, helping its rise, and it became an item of discussion on Wall Street Bets, or r/WSB as it’s known.

This month the stock moved into the pure speculative phase, producing several daily jumps of 50% or more, and fundamentals were abandoned. Many cheerleaders on r/WSB stopped even making the pretense of arguments about Mr Cohen’s chances of turning the company around. Instead, there were two justifications for buying: wanting to get in on the price action to avoid being labelled, in the abusive parlance of the forum, a “retard” who missed gigantic profits, and the self-fulfilling prospect of hurting the large numbers of short-sellers.

As the late economist Charles Kindleberger put it: “There is nothing as disturbing to one’s well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich. Unless it is to see a non-friend get rich.”

The scale of trading in GameStop shares is as extraordinary as the daily gains in price, suggesting widespread disturbance to people’s judgment. On Tuesday, $22 billion of shares changed hands, more than in Apple, the world’s largest company, and double GameStop’s market value. Adam Smith, the founder of economics, called speculative manias “overtrading,” and this is what they look like.

The hope of getting rich is only part of what’s inflating the bubble. Kindleberger argued that speculative manias needed innovative sources of financing, and the private traders on r/WSB have one: the shift last year to make trading in options free on Robinhood and several other platforms.

Options, like other derivatives, allow traders to use implied leverage to boost their bets, similar to borrowing money. In the same way that Japan’s bubble in the 1980s was fueled by cheap mortgages, and low Federal Reserve rates combined with collateralised debt obligations to support the housing bubble of the 2000s, the bubble in GameStop is aided by an increase in the money supply of private stock traders. Stimulus checks from the government can’t hurt, either.

Bubbles also frequently have support from technical factors that prevent the asset from being priced correctly. In the late 1990s, many dot-coms had a small float available, and none for short-sellers, making it hard or impossible for those who doubted the story to have their views expressed in the share price.

In GameStop, there are plenty of short-sellers, but they are making things even worse. The stock is caught in a vicious short squeeze. Short sellers had borrowed and sold more than 100% of the stock outstanding, as some was borrowed again. As the price rose, at least some of the hedge funds bought back shares to prevent further losses, so pushing the price up even further.

The most obvious parallel here is to K-Tel, the TV retailer of compilation tapes and the Veg-o-matic food processor, among other things. It announced in 1998 that it was moving online, prompting a jump in the shares that turned into an extraordinary short squeeze. K-Tel’s appropriately named public relations representative, Coffin Communications, gave this wonderful justification to the Washington Post: “Which do you think has more likelihood of success, a pure start-up that has never sold a product, or one like K-Tel that has been in business for 35 years?”

It turned out the answer was a pure startup, and K-Tel’s shares collapsed—but not before they had soared from $3.34 to more than $35 in under a month.

The difference with GameStop is that the r/WSB mob is actively engineering a short squeeze, discussing the pain they hoped to inflict on the short sellers and encouraging buyers not to cash in their profits.

Because there are so many shares that need to be repurchased by short-sellers, this offers an exit route for those who sell. But not everyone can do this, and those who are left holding the stock when demand eventually evaporates will watch the price plummet as it reverts back to something closer to what is justified by the company’s profit potential, just as K-Tel did.

Warren Buffett attributed to his mentor, Ben Graham, the line that “in the short run, the market is a voting machine—reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability—but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine.”

The absence of emotional stability on r/WSB is obvious and has worked out beautifully for buyers of GameStop so far. But when the stock is weighed, many will be found wanting, as they always are in bubbles.

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GameStop Mania Reveals Power Shift On Wall Street—And The Pros Are Reeling

The power dynamics are shifting on Wall Street. Individual investors are winning big—at least for now—and relishing it.

An eye-popping rally in shares of companies that were once left for dead including GameStop Corp., AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and BlackBerry Ltd. has upended the natural order between hedge-fund investors and those trying their hand at trading from their sofas. While the individuals are rejoicing at newfound riches, the pros are reeling from their losses.

Long-held strategies such as evaluating company fundamentals have gone out the window in favour of momentum. War has broken out between professionals losing billions and the individual investors jeering at them on social media. Meanwhile, the frenzy of activity is stirring regulatory and legal concerns, as well as the attention of the Biden administration. The White House press secretary said on Wednesday that its economic team, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is monitoring the situation.

The newbie investors are gathering on platforms such as Reddit, Discord, Facebook and Twitter. They are encouraging each other to pile into stocks, bragging about their gains and, at times, intentionally banding together to intensify losses among professional traders, who protest that social-media hordes are conspiring to move stock prices.

“I didn’t realize it was this cultlike,” said short seller Andrew Left of Citron Research, who has become a particular target of some investors on social media. “It’s just a get-rich-quick scheme.”

GameStop, AMC and BlackBerry have received hundreds of thousands of mentions across social media since early January and have vaulted into the ranks of the most traded stocks in the U.S. market.

The mammoth gains have forced money managers to dump bets that the stocks would fall, magnifying the rally. Bearish investors who took short positions have lost $23.6 billion this year through the close of trading Wednesday on GameStop alone, according to financial analytics company S3 Partners, including $14.3 billion on Wednesday when the stock price jumped 135%, its largest percentage increase in history, to a record $347.51.

On Wednesday, GameStop shares hit a high of $380, briefly giving the videogame retailer a market value of $26.5 billion—more than that of Delta Air Lines Inc.

Sam Daftarian, a 44-year-old recent law school student, said he started trading during 2020’s market crash. In the movies, they portray a broker as “the guy with the red Lamborghinis, with Redbull or cocaine problems,” said Mr Daftarian, of Brisbane, Calif. “They never have in the movies some guy sitting on a hill in Brisbane sitting in his pyjamas. That’s how I’m trading. I’m trading sometimes at Safeway buying groceries. I’ve traded at a traffic light.”

Among his recent winners: the embattled movie-theatre chain AMC, which soared 301% on Tuesday to $19.90, recording its biggest one-day move in history.

After buying more than $1000 worth of the shares last year—as the stock price hovered around $4—he was recently on track to more than double a small options bet on the company, which has been fighting to ward off bankruptcy.

He said if he had realised how lucrative trading could be, he wouldn’t have sprung for his online law or undergraduate degree. “Please tell the wolf of Wall Street that the pigeon of San Francisco is gonna eat your lunch,” he said.

Noah Williams, a 36-year-old Atlanta resident, said he has earned close to $150,000 in cash from his GameStop options positions over the past two weeks, allowing him to pay off more than $43,500 of outstanding student loan debt. He currently holds about 1100 shares of GameStop, he said, after starting to buy shares at $16 in the autumn. He has continued purchasing shares in the months since with profits from his GameStop trades.

“I think the big takeaway is, fundamentals do not apply to retail traders,” said Mr Williams. “It’s all about sentiment. The only reason why Tesla is worth what it is is because people believe in that company.”

Mr Williams recently updated his LinkedIn profile to include a job as a “Short Squeeze Astronaut,” a reference to Reddit’s popular WallStreetBets forum, where traders regularly boast that stocks such as GameStop are going “to the moon,” alongside rocket ship emojis. He said he doesn’t plan to sell his shares until GameStop’s share price hits $1,000.

Individual investors racing to buy shares have encountered disruptions and technical glitches at online brokerages including Fidelity Investments and Vanguard Group this week. Some brokerages, including Charles Schwab & Co., TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. and Robinhood Markets Inc. have also been increasing margin requirements—or the amount that investors can borrow to execute trades—for GameStop and AMC, a move typically done when volatility or risk for a security changes.

The sharp run-up in GameStop and AMC shares comes amid a period of relative calm in the broader stock market. The S&P 500 has slipped about 2.4% this week, leaving it with a small loss for the year. That compares with week-to-date gains of 435% for GameStop and 467% for AMC. Both companies didn’t respond to requests for comment Wednesday.

AMC has been the most actively traded stock in the entire market in recent sessions, replacing Apple Inc., a behemoth more than 350 times its size. Speculative options trading on GameStop and AMC has grown to the highest level ever, leaving traders ogling at the dramatic price moves on their screens.

Pinpointing the origins of the GameStop frenzy is difficult, but signs of individual investor interest began to emerge in earnest in 2019 on Reddit forums. At the time, some users began posting screenshots of bullish options positions and debating why the stock could rise.

That same year, one Reddit user posted in March that the company was a “deep value play.” Another Reddit user noted at the time that Michael Burry, the investor who famously bet against mortgage securities before the late-2000s financial crisis, had built a stake in the company through his investment firm Scion Asset Management LLC.

Mr Burry “is trying to start an epic short squeeze,” one user posted on an investing Reddit forum in August 2019, a reference to a phenomenon that occurs when a stock’s price begins rising, forcing bearish investors to buy back shares that they had bet would later fall to curb their losses.

By 2020, chatter about a possible short squeeze had moved beyond being a working theory among a few users. Post after post noted the elevated short interest in GameStop stock, with one user in April 2020 predicting it would be the “biggest short squeeze of your entire life.” Even more, many users predicted, new consoles including the PlayStation 5 were coming in late 2020. That alone, they thought, could help lift the share price of the struggling videogame retailer that had already begun closing stores around the globe.

By early January, GameStop had moved from a stock recommendation to a phenomenon. GameStop was no longer only an opportunity for a big payday or a way to back a struggling company. Buying GameStop for some users had turned into a way to confront institutional money. Users encouraged others to hold the line: “Do not sell.”

Big losses

The soaring stock prices of heavily shorted stocks have ensnared some of Wall Street’s best traders. Top-performing hedge fund Melvin Capital Management, which managed $12.5 billion at the start of the year, had lost nearly 30% for the year through Friday due largely to its array of bets against companies including GameStop, said people familiar with the fund.

With losses mounting, Melvin founder Gabe Plotkin orchestrated an emergency deal Monday in which Citadel LLC, its partners and Point72 Asset Management would immediately invest $2.75 billion into Melvin’s fund to help stabilize it. As part of the deal, they got non-controlling revenue shares in Melvin for three years. The move effectively reduced Melvin’s reliance on borrowed money and, therefore, the likelihood of margin calls from Melvin’s prime brokers.

Melvin’s put options against GameStop—bearish contracts that typically profit as stocks fall—expired in mid-January and it was completely out of GameStop Tuesday. “Melvin Capital has repositioned our portfolio over the past few days,” a spokesman said in a written statement. He declined to comment on how much of Melvin’s losses came from GameStop.

Maplelane Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund that started the year with about $3.5 billion, was down roughly 30% for the year through Wednesday, with its bearish GameStop position a significant driver of losses, said people familiar with the firm. One of the people said the fund has adjusted its portfolio over the past two weeks to preserve capital.

The steep loss is rare for Maplelane, started in 2010 by former Galleon Group trader Leon Shaulov. Maplelane has returned an average 29.4% a year since its inception, according to an investor document.

Some traders said they had been covering short bets on other stocks such as Palantir Technologies Inc. and Stitch Fix Inc. because they worry those companies could be the next GameStop. Others have been forced out as stocks like GameStop and AMC soar, triggering their firms’ limits on the amount of risk a portfolio manager can take. Hedge funds reduced their exposure to stocks, by trimming their bullish positions and covering bearish ones, on Monday at the sharpest clip since August 2019, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Meanwhile, chatter about “Melvin” has been dominant on Reddit, according to an analysis by Meltwater, a global media intelligence company, with more than 40,000 posts tied to the firm circulating over the past month. One post gloated: “We are better at being irrational than Melvin is at being solvent.”

Individual investors are aware of their growing clout, and know when to deploy it.

On Jan. 19, a Twitter account identifying itself as moderators for WallStreetBets posted that the forum had long been dismissed, but “we are also now a powerful force to be taken seriously.” Some users have expressed concern that the Securities and Exchange Commission would act if users appeared organised. On Discord, in a chat room linked to WallStreetBets, a user on Tuesday posted, “Guys, we need to pump $GME. Everyone buy 1000 shares in exactly 60 seconds.”

Some on WallStreetBets have targeted Mr. Left of Citron Research, who made his bearish position on the company public. He said he has been trolled by throngs of people on the internet, including many who he said harassed family members, including his children. Many people ridiculed him as a “boomer,” he said.

His announcement served as a cue for hordes of other investors to pile into the stock.

“When Citron got involved, that’s when I think I wanted more involvement,” said Danny Faiella, a 33-year-old house painter in Hilo, Hawaii, who trades between jobs and has poured about $3,500 into GameStop stocks and options. He has been buying calls tied to GameStop since November—positions that rapidly jumped in value as the stock soared—and ramped up the trade after Mr. Left revealed his position. “I find value in the stocks that he now shorts.”

On Wednesday, Mr. Left said in a video that he closed most of his short position.

Although investors betting on and against stocks had one of their best years in more than a decade last year, they have been buffeted in recent years by monetary stimulus by central banks around the world and by the rise of passive and quantitative investing. Stock pickers say all of these forces have distorted equity markets.

Social media, they say, may be the next force with which to reckon.

The extraordinary moves in individual stocks come as trading activity among individual investors has surged during the coronavirus pandemic, drawing investors young and old, inexperienced and seasoned. In 2020 alone, it is estimated that more than 10 million new trading accounts were created, according to JMP Securities.

To market observers, the companies that individual investors favour don’t always make sense. In recent months, they have sent soaring shares of Hertz Global Holdings Inc., the car-rental service that filed for bankruptcy protection last year, and Eastman Kodak Co., the struggling photography company. Hertz was ultimately delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and trades on the over-the-counter market, while Kodak has fallen more than 60% from its 2020 high.

That has many Wall Street traders convinced that rallies like GameStop’s could ultimately fizzle, too.

Short sellers’ interest in GameStop remains high, even as the borrowing cost, or the fee that bearish investors must pay a broker to borrow shares in order to short them, has skyrocketed. The median borrow cost for stocks in the S&P 500 is 0.3%.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the borrow fee for GameStop stock was around 38% for existing shorts, according to S3 Partners. The borrow fee on new short sellers has climbed as high as between 150% to 200%.

Inflicting pain

The record run for stocks like GameStop comes as access to options bets has grown easier than ever, allowing investors to supersize their bullish bets and, in some cases, inflict additional pain on short sellers.

Options give investors the right to buy or sell shares at specific prices, later in time. They can be used as trading tools to wager on the direction of stocks, or to hedge portfolios. Lately, many investors have been using them to rapidly double, triple or even quadruple their money, since they can put down a relatively small sum in exchange for a giant return, albeit risking a giant loss. They have been snapping up options on GameStop that would expire within days.

The volume of trading and the high number of outstanding, short-dated call options in GameStop has astonished Wall Street veterans. More than 2 million options contracts tied to GameStop changed hands Friday, the most on record. Options volumes for AMC hit a high on Monday.

As shares rise, dealers who have sold the calls have to buy shares to hedge their positions. These call options multiplied in value as GameStop shares surged, forcing dealers to buy more of the company’s shares to hedge their positions.

And the surging share price lured even more traders into the fray, spurring demand for the shares, creating a snowball effect. Meanwhile, systematic funds started to get involved in the stocks, helping push the stocks higher.

Options volumes this year are accelerating after a record 2020. Four of the five largest volume days for call options dating back to 1973 have happened in the first few weeks of 2021, according to Trade Alert data. On Jan. 27, more than 39 million bullish calls changed hands, making it the most active day for such bets in history.

The momentum surrounding the stock could ease and these bullish bets could quickly reverse. And all the options trading on the way up could exacerbate a downward spiral in the stock, traders said.

Repercussions

The mob-like mentality on WallStreetBets has some professional investors calling foul.

Mr. Burry, who drew some of the early attention to GameStop, on Tuesday posted in a now-deleted tweet: “If I put $GME on your radar, and you did well, I’m genuinely happy for you. However, what is going on now—there should be legal and regulatory repercussions. This is unnatural, insane, and dangerous.”

Many traders have been questioning whether users who have been posting about the company and urging others to buy shares and calls could be considered a “group” by the SEC’s definition. That designation could require regulatory disclosures for investors acting together on a particular stock and at certain thresholds restrict trading and require a return of some short-term profits.

Hedge funds and their clients also have been asking whether the activity could be considered market manipulation.

SEC staff is likely looking into the trading activity and messages on Reddit, said Brad Bennett, a former enforcement chief at the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Proving any type of fraud, such as market manipulation, would require showing that traders conveyed false or misleading information to goose the stock price, he said. An SEC spokesman declined to comment.

“If it is just folks whipping each other into a frenzy on the internet, it is hard to find a violation,” Mr. Bennett said. “But if you have people putting information out on a website, and these are stock pickers selling into the frenzy and they are not disclosing that, it can be fraud.”

Moderators on Reddit investing and trading forums have disputed in posts the notion that the forum manipulates markets, and in replies to users have said they are strict on enforcing group rules, which “relate to promotions and pump and dumps,” one moderator said in a forum this month.

“There is NO organized effort by those [of] us who moderate this community to promote, advise or recommend any stock,” another recent post on WallStreetBets said. “It is against our policy to do so and we feel it is crucial to allow members to be able to share their ideas amongst each other with autonomy.”

Some individual investors have also questioned to what extent retail traders are driving the massive share-price increases.

“We control the sentiment, but we don’t have the money to control this kind of volatility or the price,” said Mr. Williams, the Atlanta-based individual investor. “There’s definitely big money, market makers and hedge funds that are essentially bankrolling our feelings.”

Securities and regulatory lawyers say neither market manipulation nor group cases, particularly in the context of anonymous internet posters, are easy to make. The former raises the question of whether the SEC has the will to go after individual investors or require a short seller to file suit and open up its own books for discovery, they say.

Jordan Laws, a 40-year-old video producer who worked for Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign last year, said he considers WallStreetBets to be an equalizing force among professionals and amateurs.

“The hedge funds have been doing it forever. It isn’t like they haven’t taken their guys and gone on CNBC,” said Mr. Laws, adding that their comments can move markets.

He bought bullish call options tied to AMC after seeing the run-up in GameStop shares and tracking the incessant chatter on Reddit and Discord. They have ticked up in value, but he thinks there’s more room to run.

“I’m waiting for the cavalry to arrive,” he said.

—Sabrina Siddiqui and Dave Michaels contributed to this article.

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Louis Vuitton, Dior Power LVMH’s Sales

Louis Vuitton

PARIS—LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE said surging revenue at its biggest fashion brands, Louis Vuitton and Dior, propped up the luxury-goods company’s results during the fourth quarter, offsetting other businesses such as Champagne that have fizzled during the pandemic.

The Paris-based conglomerate on Tuesday said revenue in the quarter fell 3% to €14.3 billion ($22.4 billion). Sales at its fashion and leather-goods division—where Louis Vuitton and Dior account for most of the revenue—rose 18%. Revenue for all of 2020 fell 17% to €44.7 billion. Net profit for the entire year was down 34% at €4.7 billion.

The results show how some of the marquee brands of luxury fashion have gained market share during the pandemic. Louis Vuitton, the world’s top-selling luxury brand, Dior and Hermès have posted strong sales growth since boutiques were allowed to reopen after lockdowns in March and April. Smaller brands—both inside and outside LVMH—have lagged behind.

Drawn by the performance of Dior and Louis Vuitton, investors have sent LVMH’s shares to near record highs, brushing aside concerns about the future of the luxury business during and after the pandemic. The company’s market capitalization is now €260 billion, solidifying the place of Bernard Arnault, LVMH’s chief executive and controlling shareholder, among the ranks of the world’s wealthiest people.

Jean Jacques Guiony, LVMH’s chief financial officer, said Louis Vuitton and Dior had a strong pipeline of new products that they continued to roll out despite the lockdowns. The brands also maintained fashion shows in reduced formats and continued digital-marketing efforts when others were forced to pull back drastically. Dior, for example, held a closed-door fashion show for its cruise collection in Lecce, Italy, in July, while rival brands pushed the unveiling of new collections until later in the year.

“We did it when nobody else was talking,” Mr Guiony said. “It was really Dior and Vuitton taking the bulk of the customers’ attention.”

Mr. Guiony said that Fendi and Celine—two of LVMH’s midsize fashion brands—also gathered momentum toward the end of the year. Marc Jacobs managed to turn a profit in 2020 for the first time in years, Mr Guiony said, though that came after a wave of layoffs at the American brand.

LVMH’s performance also benefited from strong consumption of Hennessy, the world’s top-selling cognac brand. Sales in the U.S. surged, LVMH said, bolstered by large government stimulus payments to consumers. Global cognac volumes were down only 4% for the year and rebounded in the second half, the company said.

That helped offset the poor performance of LVMH’s Champagne division, which includes brands such as Veuve Clicquot and Dom Pérignon. With weddings and birthday parties cancelled because of social-distancing rules, consumers had little reason to sip a glass of bubbly, pushing down Champagne sales by 19% for the year.

LVMH just completed its purchase of the American jeweller Tiffany & Co. at the start of this year, after the pandemic nearly cancelled the $15.8 billion deal. Mr Arnault pulled the plug on the merger in September before deciding to see it through after Tiffany agreed to a small discount.

The acquisition could be riding a tailwind: Jewellery sales in the final months of last year were one of the bright spots in the global luxury business, Mr Guiony said.

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In A Shift Away From Suburbs, Townhouses And Boutique Apartment Buildings In High Demand In Cities

Among the biggest real estate stories of 2020 was the outmigration of wealthy buyers from cities to suburbs, motivated to seek out larger homes and more space as the coronavirus raged in major metropolises.

In the New York area for instance, sales boomed in the suburban counties outside the city, with 65% more homes sold in Fairfield County, Connecticut, in the summer months of 2020 than in June and July of 2019. There was a similar exodus from London, with 73,950 homes purchased outside the capital in 2020.

But with the vaccine rollout underway—and as some buyers reconsider whether they want to settle down in the suburbs permanently—there are promising signs of a reawakening of prime markets in major cities, providing an opportunity for sellers to get a better deal than just a few months ago.

And while buyers are still wary of investing in units in large apartment buildings, demand for luxury single-family homes in London has strengthened, with some record-breaking deals made after the lockdown ended in May. In New York, there was a resurgence of interest in properties in Brooklyn, with the outer-borough perceived as a safer place to live than Manhattan.

There are commonalities in the features and amenities of city homes that are still attractive to buyers, one year into the Covid-19 pandemic, real estate analysts say.“Townhouses in central areas are in demand, especially those with gardens, private space, and all those things that have become more important during the pandemic,” said Liam Bailey, Global Head of Knight Frank’s Research Department in London. “Apartments have been weaker in terms of take up.”

 

In New York, in addition to townhouses, apartments in boutique buildings are increasingly desirable to buyers who, in light of the pandemic, are less interested in larger properties with extensive shared amenities.

 

“Buyers are looking for smaller, boutique buildings, and at the high end, they want elevators that open directly into their individual units,” said Julie Gans, a broker with Compass in New York. “Renovated apartments with outdoor space are well-positioned for this market.”

Such features have become especially attractive to buyers, who are no longer deterred by the pandemic but face tight inventory and heated competition, so sellers of these types of city homes will get the best deals if they list now.

“We are seeing people who have committed to coming back to the city, and in the first month of the year inventory has lessened and more deals are happening,” said Allison Chiaramonte, an agent with Warburg Realty in New York. “Multiple offers are being made on certain properties.”

Desirable Features of City Homes in 2021

The demand for large, amenity-packed buildings significantly diminished over the course of 2020, as the pandemic made shared fitness, work, and entertainment centres in high-end buildings undesirable and inaccessible.

Now, buyers committed to staying in cities are looking for boutique buildings with larger apartments, where they can work and enjoy leisure time in their own individual spaces, or townhouses where they can have control over the entire property.

“Over the last 10 years, lots of bigger developments have focused on gyms and shared office spaces, all of which have become much less attractive during the pandemic,” Mr Bailey said. “The real focus is now around privacy and staying separate from other households—anything that offers that opportunity, as well as outdoor space, is at a premium at the moment.”

In Los Angeles, some developers are shifting gears and moving amenities to the outdoors, so that residents can still enjoy building perks in a safer way.

“Prior to the pandemic, multifamily developers were trying to provide live, work, and play spaces in the same location,” said Keith McCloskey, principal at KTGY Architecture + Planning in Los Angeles. “During the pandemic, they’re offering outdoor spaces at a variety of scales, so there are opportunities to work in a covered garden space, use rooftop lounges, and get out of small living units.”

Such features are also in demand in Sydney, even as the Australian city is deemed a Covid-19 success story for its comparatively low case numbers. Expats and foreign buyers alike have been flooding the city’s prime real estate market, with properties close to the water, particularly in demand.

“The way Australia has been able to manage the virus so far has people from all over the world looking at this market as a safe haven, and I expect that we’ll be experiencing a property boom in the next five to seven years, driven largely by that desire for safety,” said Steve Grant, Chairman of Capital Corporation, developer of BOND at Bondi Junction, boutique residences close to a number of beaches. “The waterfront will remain a major drawcard for the top end of the market in locations like Watsons Bay in Sydney’s East, where there are still great buys around.

In addition to more square footage that allows for discrete spaces to work and attend school from home, proximity to the office and school is more important than ever, in light of the pandemic.

“Walkability can’t be duplicated in the suburbs, and more and more we’re seeing people who want to move within a 30-block radius of school and the office,” Ms Chiaramonte said. “Before, they didn’t mind hopping on the subway, but now they want to be closer.”

In New York, buildings with their own parking garages or nearness to garages is also a bigger priority now, as more New Yorkers purchase cars to avoid the close quarters of public transportation.

But with the vaccine rollout underway, some real estate experts foresee a return to the expectations buyers had before the pandemic.

“Because now the vaccine is on the horizon, people see the future and they’re optimistic about it,” Ms Gans said. “In certain buildings, they’ve reopened gyms at 25% capacity, and some people are ready to go back. I think November was the bottom and now the market has exploded again.”

Why Sellers Shouldn’t Wait to List Their Homes

Sellers of city homes with these in-demand features should consider listing their properties now. In the U.K., where a stamp duty holiday is set to end by March 31, buyers may be especially motivated to act quickly.

“It’s a positive time to be a vendor,” Mr Bailey said. “Stock is eroding quickly, and if you’re in a good location with a well-presented property you could try to do a sale before the end of March.”

(One potential caveat is the new shutdown. The U.K. housing market remains open for now, but further regional and national shutdowns are possible depending on the spread of a new, particularly contagious strain of the coronavirus.) Also looming is a new foreign buyer tax, which enacts a 2% tax on non-residents purchasing a property in the U.K.

Meanwhile, in New York, the fourth quarter of 2020 saw an uptick in luxury sales in Manhattan, along with fierce competition for high-end homes in Brooklyn.

And in early January, apartments over US$4 million represented the largest number of contracts signed, Ms Gans said.

“After spending 10 months inside, people see the deficiencies in their apartments and want a change,” she said.

Many of these buyers want homes with room separation in a shift away from the open floor plan trends of previous years, along with plentiful storage, and of course, outdoor space.

“If you have a junior four, or a two-bedroom with an office or maid’s room, the value there is a little higher because it allows people to stay in separate spaces,” Ms Chiaramonte said. “Those homes are the ones attracting people the most this year, and those sellers are better positioned.”