Tech Earnings Season Starts Soon. Warnings Are Already Piling Up

With tech earnings season about to start, investors should be aware that a flurry of the industry’s less-followed players have been warning about emerging weakness across the enterprise and telecommunications-networking landscape.

Evercore ISI hardware analyst Amit Daryanani, speaking Tuesday on Barron’s Live, noted that heading into earnings he has concerns about weakness in IT enterprise spending, continued soft demand from communications carriers, and continued caution by consumers. The primary bright spot he sees heading into earnings: spending on cloud and AI infrastructure.

The list of companies providing cautious commentary on the outlook is growing by the day.

NetScout Systems stock (ticker: NTCT) is down 17% on Tuesday after the cybersecurity software company slashed its revenue forecast for its March 2024 fiscal year to a range of $840 million to $860 million, down from a previous forecast of $915 million to $945 million. NetScout also trimmed its adjusted profit per share forecast for the year to $2 to $2.20, down from $2.20 to $2.32. The company said it is seeing “slower order conversion,” due to “industry and economic headwinds facing our customers” that began in September.

Ericsson American depositary receipts (ERIC) are 3.3% lower after the networking infrastructure company on Tuesday provided disappointing financial guidance. “We expect the underlying uncertainty impacting our Mobile Networks business to persist into 2024,” the company said.

Adtran (ADTN), which provides networking hardware, on Monday warned that it now sees third-quarter revenue of $272.3 million, below its previous guidance range of $275 million to $305 million. Adtran said that its “customers remain focused on reducing inventory levels and managing capital expenses.”

Late last week, Belden (BDC), another network infrastructure provider, said it now sees third-quarter revenue of $625 million, down from a previous forecast of $675 million to $690 million. “Demand began to weaken in the third quarter, adding to ongoing pressure from channel destocking,” Belden said in its announcement. “We believe softer demand will continue as we move into the fourth quarter, impacting both revenue and profitability.”

A10 Networks (ATEN), which also provides networking infrastructure, likewise provided September quarter preliminary results that failed to match previous estimates. “In our third quarter we experienced delays related to North American service provider customers pushing out capital expenditures,” the company said earlier this month. “Deals we expected to close at the end of the quarter were delayed into future periods.”

Cambium Networks (CMBM), which provides wireless-network infrastructure, said earlier this month that it now sees third quarter revenue of $40 million to $45 million, below previous guidance of $62 million to $70 million. The company cited a number of reasons for the big miss, including a delay in government orders due to U.S. government budgetary timing issues, and a decrease in orders from distributors in the company’s enterprise business, among other things.

Tech earnings season kicks off Wednesday with results from Netflix (NFLX), to be followed by a deluge of financial reports next week from Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), International Business Machines (IBM), Meta Platforms (META), ServiceNow (NOW), Amazon.com (AMZN), Intel (INTC), and Juniper Networks (JNPR), among others.

The Apple growth and profit machine is wavering, and the boost from price increases might not be enough to keep it going at historic rates. That dials up the pressure on Apple’s new chief executive, John Ternus.

The company saved the bad news for its earnings call, an hour after it posted its results for the September quarter, projecting that for the current quarter its high-margin services business will continue to slow and that its widely watched gross profit margin will continue to fall.

Apple AAPL -1.83%decrease; down pointing triangle shares had been flat in post-close trading but declined as much as 4% after the company made the projections, which fell short of Wall Street estimates.

The impact of high memory costs are weighing even more heavily on the company, Ternus and Apple Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh said on the company’s earnings call. Apple has stockpiled cheaper components purchased earlier, but those inventories are dwindling.

When Ternus took over as Apple’s third chief executive of the past 29 years on Sept. 1, he inherited sky-high expectations. The men he followed were among the most successful company leaders in American business history. Steve Jobs revolutionized consumer devices multiple times. Tim Cook expanded Jobs’s creation to spectacular heights.

The expectations are reflected in Apple’s huge valuation. Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang noted that Apple stock trades at 36 times next year’s expected earnings, a premium to the overall market, even though its earnings are only expected to grow 1%, which is slower than its tech peers.

“We see insufficient upside to justify the premium,” Yang wrote in an investor note, adding that Apple needs to boost iPhone sales growth and turn around its slowing services business to make him more bullish.

Investors have bid up Apple shares because it has been a port in the AI storm—a reliable and capital-efficient business that stands apart from rivals which are spending hundreds of billions of dollars racing to the AI frontier.

While others invest in data centers, Apple has been pouring its own cash into buybacks and dividends. But that safety may be challenged if Ternus can’t speed up Apple’s innovation engine.

Apple’s lagging performance in AI was evident when its new “Siri AI” chatbot arrived this past quarter. Its long-maligned assistant was already stale the day it arrived, surpassed by agents such as Instinct and Muse that can complete multistep tasks for consumers, while Siri still sets kitchen timers.

Apple needs to give people reasons to buy its devices as they get more expensive. The company raised prices across the board last quarter to help offset higher costs. Without compelling new features, a big question is whether consumers will slow the frequency of iPhone upgrades.

The new iPhone Duo appears to be a bright spot. Consumers are scooping up the $1,999 foldable smartphone despite mixed reviews—so many that Apple can’t keep up with demand. Shipping dates jumped out to January soon after the device went on sale, a disappointment for the normally reliable Apple supply chain.

Apple said its revenue grew 12% in the September quarter, slightly ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. Its widely tracked gross profit margin, at 47.9%, also came in just ahead of analyst estimates.

Apple will need to find new growth avenues because a reliable engine during the Cook era—the services business—is slowing. Courts and regulators worldwide have limited Apple’s ability to charge developers big fees to distribute apps through its App Store, the biggest component of the company’s services segment.

One of its most lucrative App Store fee generators has been the ChatGPT app from OpenAI. Around the time Apple accused OpenAI of trade-secret theft this past summer, OpenAI began redirecting potential subscribers to pay via its website instead of the App Store, skirting Apple’s tollbooth.

Apple’s valuation has bumped up against a ceiling in recent weeks. Six times it traded above a $5 trillion market capitalization intraday before finally closing above the threshold, which it has already fallen back below.

News Corp, owner of The Wall Street Journal, has a commercial agreement to supply news through Apple services.

Tech Earnings Season Starts Soon. Warnings Are Already Piling Up

Apple’s growth engine is showing signs of slowing, as rising costs, weaker services growth and AI competition challenge its profitability. With John Ternus taking the helm, the pressure is on to reignite innovation and sustain investor confidence.