About the author: Patrick L. Springeris an institutional-equities business developer and Japan and Asia market specialist. He worked at Morgan Stanley in management roles for more than 20 years.
Japan just concluded a 34-year trek in the wilderness of deflation and ended its nearly 20-year negative interest-rate policy. The stock market has responded by achieving new all-time highs, last seen in 1989, rising 35% in the past year.
This might look like the top, but a closer look at Japan’s market suggests that the end is just the beginning for the world’s third-largest market. This year likely marks the beginning of a multiyear Japan market revival that will start a major new capital markets cycle. Japan’s companies are just beginning to celebrate a long-awaited return of pricing power supported by an enamoured global investor base looking for international ideas in a friendly market.
Investors should focus on two trends. First, new micro and macro forces are at work to make Japan a preferred non-U.S. destination for several years. With the U.S. dollar at 20-year highs, portfolio managers know that it is typically time to diversify and buy cheaper overseas markets, but where to go? Europe is cheap but challenging, and the I of India is what currently remains best of the emerging markets BRICS grouping. Exposure to Asia is important for global portfolios given it is 45% of global gross domestic product. Yet strategists say that we now live in a “multipolar world,” a euphemism for the highest level of geopolitical risks in the world in decades. This limits China investment allocations for now.
But Japan is a pre-eminent security partner for the U.S. Japan also is quickly becoming a key partner in U.S. reshoring strategies, especially as an alternative supplier of semiconductors and technology components. The reshoring trend is compounded by the yen’s weakness. At nearly 152 yen to the dollar, Japan’s currency is trading at the lowest ratio since 1990. That means Japan is also likely to regain market share that it lost over the past 20 years to China in automobile components, industrial products, and machinery. Status as a security partner matters to investors now, which will keep allocations to Japan higher for longer.
Second, Japan’s differentiated market structure may provide more alpha-idea opportunities than investors might expect from an older, developed economy. In the U.S., megacaps and the Magnificent Seven rule the world for investors—and for good reason, given their recent outperformance. The high level of exchange-traded fund penetration in the U.S. also favors large-caps over small- and medium-capitalisation stocks. But in Japan, the list of Japan’s largest companies remains unchanged: Excluding SoftBank, all were established pre-1960.
According to Abrdn Investments, 45% of Japan’s benchmark Topix Index of 2000 constituents have no analyst research coverage, compared with just 3% of the Russell 3000 universe for the U.S. As inflation sparks growth, earnings surprises and inflections of Japan’s under researched companies will lead to significantly higher alpha capture opportunities.
Additionally, the Japanese government and the Tokyo Stock Exchange have initiated important corporate-governance reforms, and 26% of all listed companies have submitted specific plans to improve their stock valuation. But many more companies have yet to respond, providing more opportunities for investors.
Sorting Japan’s nearly 3,900 stocks into market segments is revealing. Japanese mid-cap and small-cap stocks have lagged behind large-cap stocks by 40% and 60% year to date, respectively, and have lagged by 25% and 46% on a one-year basis.
Such underperformance by itself is one thing, but for the many investors who have never seen inflation, wage growth, and domestic sales gains in Japan, they may find a discovery universe of new stocks with interesting characteristics such as these:
Organo , a $2 billion market-cap water treatment company that has traded over $60 million a day on some days and counts Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing as one of its key growth customers.
Nakanishi , a $1.5 billion dental-equipment and precision-tools maker that grew sales 23% last year, sports a 2.5% yield and a 24% return on equity, and has 12% of its stock price in net cash.
Chugoku Marine Paints , a global top-three maker of marine paints that has a 20% global share and a 15% return on investment capital, sells at nearly 11 times earnings, and has a 2.6% dividend yield.
Overall, this analysis finds nearly 100 companies with a market cap above $1 billion with net cash equal to 20% or more of their stock price.
The bottom line is that Japan’s culture of innovation, combined with an end to deflation, is likely to produce a new wave of capitalisations. During the decades of deflation, corporates and consumers alike were incentivised to save more, spend less, and underinvest. But with nominal GDP growth now running at a whopping 5% and record wage growth, inflation incentivises new capital investment, stimulating a new investment-banking cycle of financing.
There are risks to this outlook. Double-digit market rallies can lead to pullbacks, and investors need to watch for threats to Japan’s inflation and currency levels and to its appetite for reform. But what’s most important for investors to realise about Japan is how much has changed there, amid a changing world.
Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron’s newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors.
Andrew Pratt doesn’t expect pushback when he pitches Bitcoin to his firm’s investment committee this week. Bitcoin’s 140% surge in the past year has all but erased memories of the crypto crash and scandals. And now that companies like BlackRock are backing Bitcoin funds, he sees no harm in adding 1% to some client portfolios.
“The downside, if it were to blow up, is just a percent,” says Pratt, investment manager at Wiser Wealth Management in Marietta, Ga. “But the upside benefits could be very large.”
Debating Bitcoin has come to feel futile. That the token has no underlying value or real-world uses increasingly seems beside the point. Buoyed by a flood of new crypto products and services, Bitcoin has scaled new heights, reaching $1.3 trillion in total market value and lifting the broader token market to $2.5 trillion.
Wall Street, after years of dismissing crypto, is now embracing it as a practical matter: There’s money to be made , fear of missing out, and fewer executives willing to call crypto an emperor with no clothes.
Many strategists argue that crypto remains a speculative trade without much underlying utility. Valuing it remains a black-art exercise of technical analysis, mixed with assumptions about supplies of tokens, demand from U.S. investors and overseas traders, and hopes that Bitcoin will endure as a “store of value” akin to gold . Making it all the more challenging are the opaque nature of crypto markets, thin liquidity and volumes, and valuation models that lack traditional analogues.
“To be a real asset, you have to generate cash flows,” says Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel. “It’s also attempting to be a currency, but then it would have to be used for transactions. Until I see Bitcoin transacted in everyday life, it’s not a currency. It’s more of a speculative instrument.”
Yet on Wall Street, executives are now far more supportive. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, a former critic, epitomises the about-face. BlackRock scored a win with its iShares Bitcoin Trust , part of a crop of such ETFs approved in January. BlackRock’s fund is now the second-largest Bitcoin ETF on the market with nearly $18 billion in assets. And it’s promoted by Fink, who talks up Bitcoin in public, saying that he’s “very bullish” on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects in a recent Fox Business interview.
BlackRock’s backing of a Bitcoin ETF helped convince advisors like Pratt to consider buying some crypto for clients. And Fink is a powerful voice as head of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with more than $10 trillion under management.
“When Larry speaks, a lot of people listen,” said WisdomTree Head of Digital Assets Will Peck, whose firm also launched a Bitcoin ETF and is creating tokens of assets like Treasuries that customers could then trade in digital wallets.
Some Wall Street firms and asset managers, meanwhile, are putting out lofty price targets for Bitcoin. Bernstein Research in late March raised its year-end price target to $90,000—a gain of 30% from recent prices around $69,000. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, an uber Bitcoin bull, has said she expects the coins to trade above $1 million by 2030.
Bitcoin needs a few things to keep going right to maintain its momentum. Its run-up coincided with rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates; without favourable macro conditions, Bitcoin could slump like other areas of tech.
The price has also risen in anticipation of April’s “halving,” an event that occurs roughly every four years when the amount of Bitcoin that miners receive for processing transactions on the network drops in half. The next halving will cut the reward to 3.125 tokens, reducing new issuance sharply. Bulls see more gains with the event, but J.P. Morgan analysts have said Bitcoin’s price could fall to $42,000 after the halving “euphoria” wears off.
Is Bitcoin really worth $42,000 or $1 million? No one can say, reflecting the fact that Bitcoin lives in a mystery zone of valuation and trading dynamics. The token frequently has massive swings on seemingly little news. Regulators have said that many trading platforms, especially those based abroad, are subject to manipulation and “wash trading,” in which traders exchange tokens with themselves to create artificial volume.
Given the risks, some financial advisors aren’t convinced there’s no harm in owning a touch of Bitcoin. When Pratt mentioned to a colleague at another firm that he was considering adding Bitcoin to client portfolios, the response was, “That’s pretty insane,” Pratt says.
But the fact that traditional firms are now backing crypto may lead more people to invest. “Folks are buying these products assuming they’re legitimate because a legitimate Wall Street actor offers them,” says Mark Hays, a senior policy analyst for the Americans for Financial Reform. “That’s not the case.”
Also worrying to consumer advocates is that investment firms may sell and trade Bitcoin without traditional investor safeguards. Investment banks, for instance, are required to separate their equity research arms from the banking side and must disclose banking relationships; the goal is to avoid conflicts of interest in research. Since Bitcoin isn’t considered a security, such laws potentially don’t apply to it, according to former SEC counsel Tyler Gellasch.
“It’s easy to see the potential for the types of abuses that have plagued the investment research business since its creation,” says Gellasch.
Wall Street has far bigger aspirations for crypto than ETFs. While the products now hold more than $55 billion in assets, they aren’t big fee generators. BlackRock until next January will only charge a 0.12% expense ratio on the first $5 billion in assets of the iShares Bitcoin Trust, with the remaining assets carrying a 0.25% fee. Even after the waiver expires, the fund will only charge a quarter percentage point. Other firms including Invesco , Franklin Resources , and WisdomTree are charging similar fees or less. For firms like BlackRock with $17.9 billion in 2023 revenue, the ETFs alone won’t move the needle.
The real prize for much of Wall Street will be convincing pension funds, sovereign-wealth funds, and insurance-company portfolios to own Bitcoin and open actively traded separately managed accounts for crypto, says Steven McClurg, head of U.S. asset management for CoinShares . McClurg was co-founder of Valkyrie Investments, whose ETF business was recently acquired by CoinShares and was among the nine firms that launched a Bitcoin ETF in January . Now, he says he is competing with major investment managers to win the business of pensions and insurance companies’ portfolios.
“For the last four years it’s been me begging them to listen to me and now people are begging me to talk to them,” says McClurg of executives in traditional finance.
The financial industry’s embrace of Bitcoin isn’t entirely a recent phenomenon. Fidelity Investments was early with CEO Abigail Johnson heavily involved in the company’s early research and experiments into Bitcoin, according to her recounting at industry conferences. In 2017, the company started letting employees pay with Bitcoin in the company cafeteria. The firm started a blockchain meetup and developed an internal list of dozens of potential crypto use cases. Fidelity also started offering Bitcoin custody services to institutions.
Now Fidelity is all-in on crypto, with ETFs, custody, and brokerage services. Its research division puts out reports that are generally favourable to crypto. Fidelity is also offering digital assets accounts to 401(k) plan sponsors. Fidelity declined to comment on how much its 401(k) products and crypto platform have grown so far.
Some executives early on found Johnson’s Bitcoin focus risky but didn’t feel comfortable challenging her, partly because her family controls the company, according to a former Fidelity executive. Johnson herself said in 2022 that her early push into crypto “was very controversial in the organisation,” adding “a lot of people are still very confused, and you kind of can’t blame them.”
Yet 2022 may have marked a nadir for crypto’s reputational risk. Between late 2021 and the end of 2022, the token market crashed 70% amid a spate of scandals, culminating in the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s trading platform FTX. In March, a federal judge sentenced Bankman-Fried to 25 years in prison for fraud.
Coinbase and some other large crypto companies survived, though, and the token market recovered amid a broader rebound in risky assets. Sentiment also got a big lift last June with BlackRock’s application to launch an ETF holding spot Bitcoin. Even though its product and the other applications wouldn’t be approved until January, others on Wall Street took it as a signal that it was safe to move into crypto.
“We continue to focus on education and believe it’s imperative for investors to consider the potential upside of investing in bitcoin and its volatile characteristics and risks,” BlackRock said in a statement.
Today, the conversation isn’t so much about whether to own crypto as how much. A few years ago, pro-Bitcoin firms and advisors would make the case that a 0.5% slug could improve risk-adjusted returns, said VanEck director of digital assets product Kyle DaCruz. Now advisors talk about 3% to 5% to a portfolio, he says.
“There are still folks asking the question ‘Is this a real asset?’ But the numbers are far less,” says DaCruz, whose employer offers a Bitcoin ETF and aims to launch an ETF holding Ether , the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Many advisors are getting ready to offer crypto to clients. The major wealth managers— Wells Fargo , Bank of America , UBS , and Morgan Stanley —can already include Bitcoin ETFs in some portfolios if clients ask. Some of their executives have met with ETF sponsors to consider whether to allow advisors to suggest Bitcoin ETF trades to clients, according to people familiar with the matter. UBS has no plans to put the ETFs in portfolios on a proactive basis, a person close to the firm said.
Pro-crypto advisors say the ETFs solve two problems: They make Bitcoin more seamless to own, and they allow advisors to charge fees far more easily on digital assets.
“For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, we have an easy and familiar way for everybody to participate,” says Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals. Far more advisors are now seeking crypto education, he says, as well as personnel at companies that run model portfolios for other advisors. “Let’s be honest, advisors can now bill on the assets,” he says.
Major banks are also coming around to crypto after arguing for years that many of the industry’s products—like high-yield accounts and stablecoins pegged to the dollar—were similar to bank products and should be regulated as such. Now, lobbying groups like the Bank Policy Institute and American Bankers Association are urging the Securities and Exchange Commission to change rules that make it difficult for banks to custody crypto tokens.
Wall Street still has skeptics. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is one, calling Bitcoin a “pet rock,” though his firm has experimented with blockchain technology. Goldman Sachs Wealth Management chief investment officer Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani recently told The Wall Street Journal that her firm’s executives are “not believers in crypto.” Vanguard remains unmoved, saying it won’t put the new Bitcoin ETFs on its brokerage platform due to the token’s lack of fundamentals.
Washington, for its part, is still cracking down on crypto. SEC enforcement is ongoing—notably a lawsuit the SEC is pursuing against Coinbase Global. SEC Chair Gary Gensler has said the entire industry is rife with fraud. Another big test is coming in May when the SEC will decide whether to approve ETFs holding Ether, the second largest token.
Firms including Coinbase have lobbied to convince Congress to pass crypto-specific rules though haven’t yet garnered enough support. The companies have given more than $80 million to pro-crypto political action committees this election cycle, a huge amount by Washington standards. The money will support crypto friendly candidates while blocking detractors.
“It gets harder and harder every year to find a crypto skeptic,” said Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong put it at a D.C. policy event in March.
His comment reflects the fact that a technology meant to disrupt the financial industry is now being embraced as prices rise and fees roll in. While the Bitcoin bears may have been silenced for now, however, they may only be hibernating until the next crash.
Artworks by Yayoi Kusama collectively sold for nearly US$81 million last year at the major global auction houses, making her the top-selling 21st-century contemporary artist, according to the Hiscox Artist Top 100 report.
The boost in sales for Kusama’s works pushed David Hockney, the previous year’s top-selling artist, to second place. Hockney’s art garnered US$50.3 million in sales last year, down from US$74.7 million in 2022, said Hiscox, a London-based specialty insurer.
The second annual ranking, compiled with research and analysis from London-based ArtTactic, also showed Kusama’s No. 1 ranking was consistent with a strong showing by women artists overall last year. Joining Kusama among the top five last year was Cecily Brown, who ranked fourth with US$31.7 million in sales.
Yoshitomo Nara, ranked third with sales of US$36 million and George Condo ranked fifth with sales of US$29.5 million.
Total sales of contemporary art made after the year 2000 fell 17% to US$955 million last year from US$1.5 billion in 2022, according to the report. Though sales of contemporary art by women fell 8% to US$306 million, the number of works sold rose 21%. And sales by their male peers fell a much sharper 20%, the report said.
“The market for female artists has been much more resilient than that for male artists,” the report said.
The results go beyond ultra-contemporary art. Earlier this year, ArtTactic reported that overall sales of art by women at the major auction houses hit a record US$825.8 million last year, up 7% from a year earlier.
Another mark of progress: Art by women comprised 32% of 21st-century art auction sales last year, up from 29% in 2022, as the number of women artists behind these sales continued to climb. There were 728 women artists represented last year, up 179% from 2019, the report said.
“Contemporary female artists have always been undervalued and underrepresented,” Robert Read , head of art and private clients at Hiscox said in a news release. “Meaningful progress has been made in recent years, as the market gradually begins to recognise the importance and value of their work, but we are still some way from parity.”
Following Kusama and Brown, the top female artists by sales value were Julie Mehretu, with sales of US$21.4 million; Jadé Fadojutimi, with sales of US$8.5 million; and Jenny Saville, with sales of US$7.8 million.
The Hiscox report just examined the auction market for works created in the 21st century and sold at Christie’s, Phillips, and Sotheby’s. This segment was stronger than much of the art market last year, with sales still 26% above pre-pandemic levels. Sales of art made before 2000 have fallen 22% since 2019, the report said.
This segment of the market is also making up a larger share of all post-war and contemporary art sold at auctions, reaching 70% last year from 63% a year earlier.
The Hiscox report was consistent with other analyses of the art market last year that found large-ticket sales, over US$1 million, declined in favour of sales of works with price tags of US$50,000 or less.
Within the 21st-century art category, the number of lower-priced works sold gained 25% while the number sold above US$1 million fell by 12%. The trend is backed by a near doubling in the number of artists making 21st-century works that end up at auction since 2019, the report said.
The benefits of so-called flipping—or the practice of selling art made by young artists within two years of their creation—fell dramatically, bringing in US$39 million in sales last year from US$67 million in 2022. That’s despite the number of lots with this newly made art at 662 was about the same as the previous year.
Though Kusama is 95 years old, 41% of those making 21st-century art are under age 45, unsurprisingly. Leading this group of younger artists last year was: Nicolas Party, whose works sold for US$20.2 million; the late Matthew Wong, whose works sold for US$16.5 million; Fadojutimi; Caroline Walker, whose works sold for US$7.5 million; and Dmitri Cherniak, whose works sold for US$6.7 million.
Art was the investment of passion that gained the most in value in 2023, according to Knight Frank’s Luxury Investment Index (KFLII). This is the second consecutive year that art has risen the most among the 10 popular investments tracked by the index, up 11 percentin 2023 and 29 percent in 2022. Art was followed by 8 percent growth in jewellery, 5 percent growth in watches, 4 percent growth in coins and 2 percent growth in coloured diamonds last year.
The weakest performers were rare whisky bottles, which lost nine percent of their value, classic cars down six percent and designer handbags down four percent. Luxury collectables are typically held by ultra-high-net-worth individuals(UHNWIs) who have a net worth of US$30 million or more.Knight Frank research shows 20 percentof UHNWI investment asset portfolios are allocatedto collectables.
In 2023, the KFLII fell for only the second time, with prices down 1 percent on average.
“Despite record-breaking individual salesin 2023, a surge in financial market returns contributed to a shift in allocations impactingon luxury asset value,” the report said. “… our assessmentreveals a need for an ever more discerningapproach from investors, with significantvolatility by sub-market.”
Sebastian Duthyof AMRsaid the 2023 art auction year began with notable sales including a record price for a Bronzino piece. But confidence waned as the year went on.
“It was telling that in May, Sotheby’s insertedone of its top Old Master lots – a Rubens’ portrait– into a 20th Century Modern evening sale. But by then, it was clear that the confidence among sellers, set by the previous year’s record-bustingfigures, was ebbing away. In the same month,modern and contemporary works from thecollection of the late financier Gerald Finebergsold well below pre-auction estimates.”
The value of ultra contemporary or ‘red-chip’ art contracted the most in 2023.
“Works by a growing group of artists bornafter 1980 have been heavily promoted by megagalleries and auction houses in recent years.With freshly painted works in excess of £100,000almost doubling in 2022, it was little surprise thatthis sector was one of the biggest casualties last year. There is a risk there are now simply too manyfresh paint artists with none really standing out.”
In the jewellery market, MrDuthy noted that demand was strongest for colouredgemstones of exceptional quality, iconic signedperiod jewels, single-owner collections, and items with historic provenancein2023. In the watches market, Mr Duthy said collectors chased the most iconic and rare timepieces.
“A Rolex JohnPlayer Special broke the model record when it sold for £2 million at Sotheby’s in May, double the pricefor a similar example sold at Phillips in 2021,” he said.
Although whisky was the worst-performing collectable in 2023, it has delivered the highest return on investment among the 10 items tracked by the index over the past decade, up 280 percent. Andy Simpson of Simpson Reserved, said2023 was a challenging yearbutthe best of the best bottles gained 20 percent in value.“In myopinion some bottles that lost significant valuein 2023 will return through the next two years asthey are simply so scarce and, right now at least,so undervalued,” Mr Simpson said.
Whisky was the worst performing collectable in 2023 but it had highest return on investment over a 10-year period. Image: Shutterstock
Classic car expert Dietrich Hatlapasaid the 6 percent fall in collectable vehicle values in 2023 followed a 22 percent surge in 2022. “The strong performance of other investment classes such as equities may have dampened collectors’ appetites –it’s a very small market so it only takes a minor change in portfolio allocations to have an effect, and there has also probably been a degree of profit taking. However, we have seen some marques like BMW (up 9 percent in value) and Lamborghini (up 18 percent), which appeal to a younger breed of collector, buck the trend in 2023.”
Mr Duthysaid a dip in the share price of the top luxury handbag brands last Autumn appeared to spook investors.“Last autumn it was possible to pick up anHermès white Niloticus Himalaya Birkin in goodcondition for under £50,000. The recent slidereflects a general correction at the upper endthat’s been underway for some time rather thanchanging attitudes to the harvesting of exotic skins.”
According to Knight Frank’s Attitudes Survey, the top five investments of passion among Australian UHNWIs are classic cars, art and wine.Fine wine values gained just 1 percent in 2023 as the market continuedits correction, said Nick Martin of Wine Owners. “It’s been a hell of a long run, so I’m not that surprised. Some wines from very small producers that had enjoyed the most exuberant growth have seen the biggest drops. It had got a bit silly, £50 bottles had shot up to £200 or £300.”
Favourite investments of passion: Australia vs Global
1. Classic cars (61 percent of Australian UHNWIs vs 38 percent of global UHNWIs)
2. Art (58 percent vs 48 percent)
3. Wine (48percent vs 35 percent)
4. Watches (42 percent vs 42 percent)
5. Jewellery (18 percent vs 28 percent)
Best returns among investments of passion (10 years)
In the latest example of Dubai’s thriving luxury real estate market, a 19-bedroom megamansion in the city’s prestigious gated golf community of Emirates Hills has sold for US$40.2 million.
The villa, which sits on the largest lot in the posh enclave, changed hands last week, and the sale was handled by Leigh Borg and Timothy Ogunniyi of Dubai Sotheby’s International Realty.
“To own the largest land plot in Emirates Hills along with one of the biggest homes in the community makes this property stand out,” Ogunniyi said. “To find a property that gives you 80,000 square feet of land and 55,700 square feet of living space is rare in Dubai.”
Other large plots in the community are “not quite as massive,” he added. It’s “very seldom these plots come into the market in Emirates Hills. No doubt, this presented a great appeal to the buyer and an opportunity to capitalise on its value.”
DUBAI SIR
The home has a classic feel, with an exterior that “combines timeless architectural elements with the use of natural materials, all of which are reflected in the roof shape, window style and classic columns,” Ogunniyi said.
It also has far-reaching views of the Dubai skyline and the surrounding golf course.
“With the market in Dubai appreciating, it is fair to say that this was a very good deal to come by, both for buyer and seller,” Ogunniyi said, without disclosing the identities of the parties. The seller had owned the villa for the past 15 years and lived in the property when in town, he added. Mansion Global couldn’t identify either party.
Dubai’s luxury home market has been on a tear, complete with sky-high prices that grew 17.4% last year , and record-breaking transactions.
“This year, we have witnessed a significant evolution in the luxury real estate landscape, characterised by the introduction of new iconic developments and a sustained influx of wealthy investors, many of whom boast billionaire status,” said George Azar, CEO and chairman of Dubai Sotheby’s International Realty.
“While there exists a substantial demand for super prime homes, it’s crucial to note that the market currently lacks a sufficient number of uber-luxury projects and finishes that resonate with the discerning tastes of global billionaires,” he added. That gap “underscores the resilience and strength of this segment within our market.”
Social media personality Supercar Blondie, a London-based Australian whose real name is Alex Hirschi, found her niche posting automotive eyecandy for eager viewers rather accidentally.
“I started out as a journalist, and I just fell into cars through my radio show,” says Hirschi.
For someone who “fell into” cars, they’ve certainly been good to her—the Supercar Blondie network of social channels that includes Supercarblondie.com has 110 million subscribers, including 18.4 million on YouTube and 56 million on Facebook. The content has 2 billion views per month, according to the company.
Alex and Nik Hirschi, the Supercar Blondie couple, in Las Vegas. Jim Motavalli photo
Hirschi, whose first car was a lowly Mitsubishi Lancer, produces the Supercar Blondie content with her husband, Nik Hirschi, who is Swiss. The radio show was on the Arabian Radio Network in Dubai from 2012 to 2017. Dubai is full of supercars, and Hirschi, then known as “Radio Blondie,” said it was a natural fit to drive some of them—Bentleys, McLarens, Ferraris—for on-air features. The independent Supercar Blondie content creation company was launched in Dubai (where Nik Hirschi worked at Bloomberg, Barclays, and Thomson Reuters) in 2017 and has been growing ever since.
“I just loved supercars, and what started out as a hobby after I was loaned a Bentley Flying Spur to drive around Dubai eventually got more serious,” Alex Hirschi says. “We started filming my encounters with cars and uploading the video to our channel.” These days the couple travels 300 days a year; Penta first caught up with them at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
The Tyde Icon electric hydrofoil uses BMW batteries. SBX Cars Photo
And now SB Media Group, based in London with 65 employees, Nik as CEO and Alex as the co-founder and on-air talent, is going into the auto auction business. SBX Cars, based in California, launched this week. The inaugural inventory goes beyond cars, and includes an electric Tyde hydrofoil yacht designed by BMW. There’s also a no-reserve Tesla Cybertruck, a one-of-nine Lamborghini Veneno Roadster, and a one-of-three Lamborghini Veneno Coupe. Likely attracting attention will be the first public auctions of the Mercedes-AMG One and the Hyperion XP-1 hydrogen-powered prototype. There were three LaFerrari prototypes, and one will be auctioned by SBX Cars.
A collection of John Player Special Lotus F1 racing cars will also be auctioned, as well as Lotus transporters, and founder Colin Chapman’s personal plane and some vehicles from his garage. Other high-dollar items include a Mercedes 300SL “Gullwing,” a Lamborghini Miura, a BMW 507, and an Aston Martin DB5. The estimated valuation of the auction lots consigned is US$100 million.
The Mercedes-AMG One was limited to 275 units. SBX Cars Photo
The auctions will be online, but there could be some in-person events in the future. “We’re going to be the only digital auction site that focuses on the high end,” Nik Hirschi says. “We will focus on cars that are super-cool, with many that are one-of-a-kind, and we’re going to be attracting collectors from all over the world. Every car will be represented on the site with 200 photographs, taken by our global network.” Video will also be available.
SBX Cars says it will speed up the process for consignors, with just a few weeks until their cars become available on the site. Once up, the vehicles will remain available for one to two weeks. SBX Cars Auction Director Lance Butler, a Bonhams veteran, said in a statement that the auction “introduces our clients to a far easier buying and selling process, all while accessing one of the world’s largest global audiences by way of Supercar Blondie.”
The prototype Hyperion XP-1. SBX Cars Photo
Mercedes 300SLs, Aston Martin DB5s, and BMW 507s are frequently auctioned around the globe, but SBX features some true exotics.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has spent years trying to build the automaker of the future. It’s the electric-car company of the present that’s now giving him trouble.
After a period of rapid expansion, the company has seen its sales fall and its once-enviable margins shrink. For the first time in years, the biggest question for Tesla is not whether it will be able to make enough cars, but whether people will buy them.
The company’s stock, down 34% this year, has been the worst performer in the S&P 500 index. While Tesla remains the world’s most valuable automaker by a wide margin, its market capitalisation has tumbled by more than half since it peaked in 2021.
Consumer appetite for electric vehicles is cooling. The core of Tesla’s lineup is dated. The company has been cutting prices to spur demand. Big, moonshot bets have not panned out as Musk predicted—at least not yet. And Chinese carmakers are now the ones that look like nimble, tech-savvy upstarts.
Musk’s attention, meanwhile, has sometimes been elsewhere. He bought Twitter, sold some Tesla stock along the way and started an artificial-intelligence company . Of late, he has been picking fights with everyone from OpenAI to Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger . Surveys suggest his public persona has alienated some would-be Tesla buyers.
This week, the company reported its first year-over-year decline in quarterly deliveries since 2020—a result that badly missed Wall Street’s expectations.
Musk’s company remains a formidable player in the electric-vehicle market globally and is the clear leader in the U.S. It is still making money on its vehicles, while many established car companies are struggling to turn a profit on their EVs, after committing tens of billions of dollars to expand their offerings. But the boom times of Tesla’s past have faded, and the bright future imagined by Musk—where people will ride around in fully autonomous Teslas—remains distant.
“Tesla is going from the golden era to a really challenging era,” said Mark Fields , a former CEO of Ford Motor who now serves on several corporate boards. Tesla and Musk didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Boom times
Three years ago, Tesla appeared all but unstoppable.
After years of financial uncertainty and production challenges, the company had turned a corner and was delivering quarter after quarter of record profit.
Its factories were humming , even as a global shortage of semiconductors led many rivals to curtail auto production. Consumer demand was strong enough that Tesla was hiking prices, and waiting lists for new vehicles grew long enough that some buyers were paying a premium for lightly used ones.
As automakers set about remaking themselves in Tesla’s image, Musk—a master salesman with an uncanny knack for inspiring investors to believe in his vision —sought to catch the next market wave: artificial intelligence.
At a Tesla recruiting event in the summer of 2021, the billionaire took the stage in Palo Alto, Calif., dressed all in black, as is his custom.
Tesla had for years been working to develop technology that would allow a computer to assume more of the driving tasks, rolling out the software as part of its Autopilot system.
In an attempt to emphasise Tesla’s might in the artificial-intelligence space—and ambitions beyond the competitive, traditionally low-margin automotive business—Musk unveiled the company’s latest effort: a friendly humanoid robot. The robot, Optimus, was not ready yet. In its place, a human dressed in a robot costume danced on stage.
“Tesla is much more than an electric-car company,” Musk told the crowd. “In the future, physical work will be a choice.”
In late October 2021, rental-car company Hertz Global Holdings said it was ordering 100,000 Tesla vehicles as it looked to expand its fleet of EVs. For investors, the deal was a sign that EVs were becoming mainstream—and soon more drivers would have an opportunity to try one.
Tesla’s market value eventually peaked above $1.2 trillion in early November, up more than 2,000% in two years.
The euphoria was short-lived.
Musk soon began unloading Tesla stock, embarking on a spree that continued for more than a year and resulted in his selling more than $39 billion in shares. The sales—executed in part to fund Musk’s eventual purchase of Twitter—spooked the market and weighed on Tesla’s stock.
‘Enough on our plate’
The surprises kept coming in 2022.
On a late-January earnings call, Musk revealed Tesla would not be introducing any new models that year, attributing the decision to supply-chain constraints. Instead, the company would churn out as many of its existing models as possible.
Tesla sold four models at the time, but just two drove the lion’s share of the company’s sales: the Model Y sport-utility vehicle and the Model 3 sedan.
Plans for a $25,000 car—a model Musk had teased in late 2020 and said likely would be ready in three years—had been put on ice.
“We have enough on our plate right now,” Musk said.
The move was risky. In the car business, new and redesigned models are critical to holding buyers’ interest and maintaining pricing power.
Analysts were perplexed. One questioned whether Tesla could hit its growth targets with fewer than a half-dozen passenger-vehicle models in its lineup.
Musk brushed off the concern. Instead, he alluded to his vision for a future where Teslas would be able to operate autonomously around the clock—making them even more valuable.
“It’s apparent from the questions that the gravity of Full Self-Driving is not fully appreciated,” Musk said, referring to a souped-up version of Tesla’s driver-assistance technology. (The system doesn’t currently make Tesla vehicles autonomous.)
As the year wore on, investors grew increasingly jittery. Musk’s pursuit of Twitter only amplified concerns on Wall Street that the Tesla CEO was not focused enough on his carmaker.
“Twitter is a distraction,” Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund, a Tesla investor, said at the time. “All of the space has been sucked up by him talking about Twitter, and so you don’t hear him tweeting about EVs.”
Warning signs flashed in China, where wait times for new Teslas fell to about a month as of September 2022, from four-plus months in the spring, according to Bernstein Research.
Tesla executives, including chief designer Franz von Holzhausen, pressed Musk to revive plans for the company’s more affordable, mass-market car, arguing it was necessary for Tesla to reach its growth targets, according to Walter Isaacson ’s biography of the CEO. Musk had been more interested in developing autonomous cars that could operate in a robotaxi fleet.
‘Our responsibility is to try to get as many people into an EV as possible,’ says Tesla’s chief designer, Franz von Holzhausen. PHOTO: PHILIP CHEUNG FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
“Our responsibility is to try to get as many people into an EV as possible,” von Holzhausen told The Wall Street Journal earlier this year.
And while he is optimistic about the promise of self-driving cars and encouraged by Tesla’s recent progress, von Holzhausen said the transition will not be simple.
“Maybe I’m more pragmatic about it, but I think autonomy is…it’s going to be a challenge,” he said. “It’s still sci-fi to a lot of people.”
In late October, Tesla cut prices in China by an average of around 7%, according to Bernstein.
Soon after, it began offering temporary discounts on its most popular models in the U.S.—by $3,750 at first, then $7,500 plus 10,000 miles of free fast-chargin g if customers took delivery before year-end.
Tesla’s 2022 ended on a downbeat note. Its annual vehicle deliveries—up 40% over the prior year— fell short of the company’s initial goal and underperformed Wall Street’s expectations. The stock suffered its worst annual performance on record, declining 65%.
By early January 2023, it became clear within Tesla’s finance department that the company needed to take more aggressive action to move cars, people familiar with the matter said.
Tesla had opened two new factories in 2022—one in Germany and another in Texas—expanding its production capacity roughly 80% in less than a year. Unsold inventory climbed to 13 days’ worth of supply in the final three months of 2022, from just four days in the second quarter, according to Tesla’s financial disclosures.
As January unfolded, orders weren’t keeping pace with internal forecasts, one of the people said.
Employees developed a plan that called for Tesla to cut prices more permanently, an unusual strategy in an industry where companies typically try to be more discreet with their incentives.
Deep price cuts
Elsewhere in the auto industry, Tesla’s rivals were unleashing a barrage of new EV models, including ones designed to directly compete with the Model Y and Model 3.
On a Thursday night in January 2023, Tesla quietly updated its website, slashing prices across its lineup, in some cases by nearly 20%.
Tesla made cuts that were even deeper than the finance department had initially proposed, the people familiar with the matter said.
For Musk, it was a calculated gamble. Tesla’s double-digit operating margins meant it could better absorb the price cuts than rivals, and the move would also put the squeeze on competitors—many of which were losing money on their EVs.
Across the Atlantic, Vincent Cobée, then-CEO of Stellantis ’s Citroën brand, was at the Brussels Motor Show when a journalist told him about Tesla’s price cuts.
Cobée’s first thought: “He’s completely nuts.”
Then: “We’re in deep trouble,” he recalled later.
The maneouvre did boost sales at Tesla—for a time. The company’s vehicle prices fell by an average of 12% globally in the first half of 2023, and deliveries rose 19% compared with the prior six months, according to Wells Fargo.
But in the second half of 2023, as Tesla continued to lower prices and layer on incentives, the company’s vehicle-delivery growth slowed to 3%, compared with the first half—a figure that Wells Fargo analysts described as “concerningly low.”
Some in the auto industry were also starting to sour on electric vehicles.
Dealers who once were bullish about the technology began worrying about the cars stacking up on their lots. Companies that had been racing to scale up EV production suddenly began delaying their investments and shifting their attention to hybrids, which were selling well.
For Tesla, the only new model on the horizon was the Cybertruck—a long-delayed and difficult-to-manufacture pickup truck that eventually hit the market in November . Even so, the model is only available in North America, and Musk has warned it is unlikely to generate significant cash flow before the end of this year.
A Cybertruck on display at the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles last year. Elon Musk Musk has warned that the truck is unlikely to generate significant cash flow for Tesla before the end of this year. PHOTO: ROGER KISBY FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
In China, the world’s largest car market and a production hub for Tesla, a price war had already broken out. The country’s leading EV maker, BYD, and other Chinese car manufacturers were mounting their own offensive, rapidly releasing more affordable EVs that were winning over the domestic market and beginning to make inroads overseas.
In January of this year, Hertz delivered another blow, saying it was selling about a third of its global EV fleet —much of it made up of Tesla vehicles. The rental-car company had previously flagged problems with fast-falling EV resale values and pricey repairs.
Drop in deliveries
Then came the news from earlier this week: Tesla delivered 386,810 vehicles globally in the first three months of 2024, down 8.5% from a year earlier . It was the company’s lowest quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2022.
Wall Street analysts had slashed their expectations for Tesla’s first-quarter performance in the weeks before the disclosure on Tuesday, but the company still came up short.
Musk has sought to quell concerns by describing the company as being in between two growth waves—the first driven by the Model 3 and Model Y, the second to be propelled by the company’s next generation of vehicles, including the much-anticipated low-cost car , which he said in January is due to enter production in late 2025.
In recent weeks, employees were told to prioritise development of a robotaxi, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Reuters on Friday reported that Tesla had canceled plans for the inexpensive car. Musk denied the report on X, as Twitter is now known. Hours later, he added that Tesla plans to unveil its robotaxi model in August.
As Musk has used his social-media platform to address polarising topics such as immigration and race, there is evidence that Musk is doing Tesla no favours with his extracurricular activities.
The company’s reputation among potential U.S. buyers has taken a hit since Musk acquired Twitter, according to market-intelligence firm Caliber. The automaker’s “consideration” rate—where survey respondents said whether they are very likely to buy, or continue buying, products from Tesla—fell from 46% to 35% between September 2022 and this March, Caliber said.
As Tesla’s profitability has weakened, Musk has talked up the potential of the company’s autonomous-driving strategy.
“Most people still have no idea how crushingly good Tesla FSD will get,” he posted on X in late March. “Cars will take you where you want automatically, just like getting in an elevator and pressing a button, something that also used to be manual.”
Despite the recent stock decline, Tesla’s valuation—$525 billion at Friday’s close—still towers over those of other automakers.
Many investors remain confident that Musk, who has defied the odds many times before, can deliver on this vision. Some, such as Owuraka Koney, a managing director at investment manager Jennison Associates, are betting Tesla will be able to generate ample revenue by selling downloadable software, such as its driver-assistance technology, long after it makes that initial car sale.
Said Koney: “We remain very bullish over the long-term.”
— Ryan Felton, Tim Higgins, Mike Colias and Sean McLain contributed to this article.
For celebrities like Taylor Swift, Rihanna, Tiger Woods, and Steven Spielberg, fame is bringing fortune.
They’re among 14 performers, athletes, and entertainment moguls―along with Oprah Winfrey, Tyler Perry, and Michael Jordan― on the 2024 Forbes World’s Billionaires List, which the media company released this week. The annual ranking “has seen an explosion in celebrity billionaires in recent years,” Forbes said in a statement.
Topping the roster of fortunes: LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault , with an estimated net worth of US$233 billion―up from US$211 billion last year. Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk ranked second, with a US$195 billion war chest, up from US$180 billion in 2023. Just a billion dollars short of second place, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos placed third with US$194 billion, or $80 billion more than a year ago.
LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault topped the list with an estimated net worth of US$233 billion. Getty Images
Tech titans dominate the rest of the top 10, which includes Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg (US$177 billion), Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison (US$141 billion), Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett (US$133 billion), Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates (US$128 billion), former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer (US$121 billion), Reliance Industries honcho Mukesh Ambani (US$116 billion), and Google co-founder Larry Page (US$114 billion.)
Swift made her debut on the list this year, along with 262 other “new billionaires” including shoe mogul Christian Louboutin, 19-year-old Brazilian heiress Livia Voigt, and NBA legend and entrepreneur Earvin “Magic” Johnson.
For Swift, worth an estimated US$1.2 billion, it’s the second star turn on a rich list this month. Last week, Swift made her first appearance on the 13th Hurun Global Rich Report, an annual survey from China-based media and research firm Hurun.
But the ultra wealthy had a very good year regardless of name recognition. The world now has more billionaires than ever, Forbes reported, with 2,781 in all. That adds up to 141 more than last year’s list, and 26 more than a record 2,755 billionaires set in 2021.
The richer are also richer, according to the list. Billionaires’ aggregate worth is now US$14.2 trillion, up US$2 trillion from 2023―and US$1.1 trillion above the previous record, also set in 2021, Forbes said.
Taylor Swift made her debut on the list this year with an estimated US$1.2 billion. Getty Images
A “flurry” of billionaires are getting rich through the AI “gold rush,” according to Forbes.
“The poster child for all this is Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jensen Huang ,” whose company’s stock surged 300% over the past year. Open AI CEO Sam Altman , who briefly lost control of his company last year, also made the list, owing to canny investments in his former role as head of VC firm Y Combinator.
The U.S. leads in billionaires, with a record 813 worth a total US$5.7 trillion. China ranked second, with 473 billionaires whose combined net worth is US$1.7 trillion. India set a record with 200 billionaires this year. Forbes said it calculated wealth using stock prices and currency exchange rates as of March 8. Two-thirds of the billionaires on the list emerged wealthier than a year ago; one-third have lost money.
Forbes’ list diverged from the Hurun rich list, where Musk reigned as the world’s wealthiest and Bezos and Arnault ranked second and third, respectively. The Hurun list was even richer, ranking 3,279 billionaires, up from 3,112 the previous year. The number of billionaires increased by 5% and their total wealth was up 9%, Hurun said.
At the Wharton School this spring, Prof. Ethan Mollick assigned students the task of automating away part of their jobs.
Mollick tells his students at the University of Pennsylvania to expect to feel insecure about their own capabilities once they understand what artificial intelligence can do.
“You haven’t used AI until you’ve had an existential crisis,” he said. “You need three sleepless nights.”
Top business schools are pushing M.B.A. candidates and undergraduates to use artificial intelligence as a second brain. Students are eager for the instruction as employers increasingly hire talent with AI skills .
American University’s Kogod School of Business is putting an unusually high emphasis on AI, threading teaching on the technology through 20 new or adapted classes, from forensic accounting to marketing, which will roll out next school year. Professors this week started training on how to use and teach AI tools.
Understanding and using AI is now a foundational concept, much like learning to write or reason, said David Marchick, dean of Kogod.
“Every young person needs to know how to use AI in whatever they do,” he said of the decision to embed AI instruction into every part of the business school’s undergraduate core curriculum.
Marchick, who uses ChatGPT to prep presentations to alumni and professors, ordered a review of Kogod’s coursework in December after Brett Wilson, a venture capitalist with Swift Ventures, visited campus and told students that they wouldn’t lose jobs to AI, but rather to professionals who are more skilled in deploying it.
American’s new AI classwork will include text mining, predictive analytics and using ChatGPT to prepare for negotiations, whether navigating workplace conflict or advocating for a promotion. New courses include one on AI in human-resource management and a new business and entertainment class focused on AI, a core issue of last year’s Hollywood writers strike.
Officials and faculty at Columbia Business School and Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business say fluency in AI will be key to graduates’ success in the corporate world, allowing them to climb the ranks of management. Forty percent of prospective business-school students surveyed by the Graduate Management Admission Council said learning AI is essential to a graduate business degree—a jump from 29% in 2022.
Many of them are also anxious that their jobs could be replaced by generative AI. Much of entry-level work could be automated, the management-consulting group Oliver Wyman projected in a recent report. That means that future early-career jobs might require a more muscular skillset and more closely resemble first-level management roles .
Faster thinking
Business-school professors are now encouraging students to use generative AI as a tool, akin to a calculator for doing math.
M.B.A.s should be using AI to generate ideas quickly and comprehensively, according to Sheena Iyengar, a Columbia Business School professor who wrote “Think Bigger,” a book on innovation. But it’s still up to people to make good decisions and ask the technology the right questions.
“You still have to direct it, otherwise it will give you crap,” she said. “You cannot eliminate human judgment.”
One exercise that Iyengar walks her students through is using AI to generate business idea pitches from the automated perspectives of Tom Brady, Martha Stewart and Barack Obama. The assignment illustrates how ideas can be reframed for different audiences and based on different points of view.
Blake Bergeron, a 27-year-old M.B.A. student at Columbia, used generative AI to brainstorm new business ideas for a project last fall. One it returned was a travel service that recommends destinations based on a person’s social networks, pulling data from their friends’ posts. Bergeron’s team asked the AI to pressure-test the idea, coming up with pros and cons, and for potential business models.
Bergeron said he noticed pitfalls as he experimented. When his team asked the generative AI tool for ways to market the travel service, it spit out a group of very similar ideas. From there, Bergeron said, the students had to coax the tool to get creative, asking for one out-of-the-box idea at a time.
Professors say that through this instruction, they hope students learn where AI is currently weak. Mathematics and citations are two areas where mistakes abound. At Kogod this week, executives who were training professors in AI stressed that adopters of the technology needed to do a human review and edit all AI-generated content, including analysis, before sharing the materials.
Faster doing
When Robert Bray, who teaches operations management at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, realised that ChatGPT could answer nearly every question in the textbook he uses for his data analytics course, he updated the syllabus. Last year, he started to focus on teaching coding using large-language models, which are trained on vast amounts of data to generate text and code. Enrolment jumped to 55 from 21 M.B.A. students, he said.
Before, engineers had an edge against business graduates because of their technical expertise, but now M.B.A.s can use AI to compete in that zone, Bray said.
He encourages his students to offload as much work as possible to AI, treating it like “a really proficient intern.”
Ben Morton, one of Bray’s students, is bullish on AI but knows he needs to be able to work without it. He did some coding with ChatGPT for class and wondered: If ChatGPT were down for a week, could he still get work done?
Learning to code with the help of generative AI sped up his development.
“I know so much more about programming than I did six months ago,” said Morton, 27. “Everyone’s capabilities are exponentially increasing.”
Several professors said they can teach more material with AI’s assistance. One said that because AI could solve his lab assignments, he no longer needed much of the class time for those activities. With the extra hours he has students present to their peers on AI innovations. Campus is where students should think through how to use AI responsibly, said Bill Boulding , dean of Duke’s Fuqua School.
“How do we embrace it? That is the right way to approach this—we can’t stop this,” he said. “It has eaten our world. It will eat everyone else’s world.”
Makers of consumer goods have been bracing for a slowdown in consumer spending after ebullient pandemic times. Ulta Beauty is now saying that the decline is happening faster than it expected.
The entire beauty category is experiencing weaker spending across price points and product segments, said Dave Kimbell , Ulta’s chief executive, at an investor conference Wednesday. The retail chain is among beauty companies that reported strong growth in revenue and profits over the past three years as consumers stepped up purchases of makeup, perfumes and skin-care items.
“Things that are going on in our consumers’ lives has led to a bit slower growth than we had anticipated in the category,” Kimbell said.
Ulta also isn’t expecting much growth in comparable sales in the current quarter from the first quarter last year. Comparable sales reflect sales at Ulta stores open at least 14 months and from e-commerce.
The comments helped send Ulta shares down 15% in Wednesday trading. Other beauty companies, including e.l.f. Beauty , Coty and Estée Lauder , also fell.
Ulta’s shares have lost about a fifth of their value after closing at a record of $567.18 on March 13, the day before the company released its fourth-quarter earnings.
“We do expect a normalisation to occur this year in the category,” said Jessica Ramirez , senior research analyst at Jane Hali & Associates. “However, we believe the consumer will continue to prioritise the beauty category as products across skin care and wellness are replenishable.”
The competitive landscape is also shifting in beauty. Sephora, the LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton -owned rival to Ulta, is expanding its bricks-and-mortar presence in Kohl’s stores. Other retailers are also increasing their presence in the beauty business, Ulta executives said. New products are expected to help drive traffic to Ulta, including those from tennis star Serena Williams ’s new line Wyn Beauty, executives said.
U.S. retail sales are expected to rise this year from 2023, but at a slower pace than during the Covid-19 pandemic period, according to the National Retail Federation. The trade group forecast that retail sales would increase between 2.5% and 3.5% this year, just below the 10-year average of 3.6% before the health crisis.
“The foundation of the economy is relatively sturdy and still on a sustainable path,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said Wednesday. “Barring unexpected shocks, it should continue growing in 2024, although not spectacularly” as a result of slower job and wage gains.
Other consumer-goods companies are bracing for a slowdown. PVH , the company behind brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, said on Tuesday that it has taken a cautious approach to planning in 2024 as a result of softer consumer spending in January and February. It forecast overall revenue this year would fall between 6% and 7% from 2023.
