Average Home Loan Deposit Exceeds $100,000

As record-low borrowing costs, stimulus payments and low stock levels send home prices to unprecedented heights, the average deposit required by first home buyers has topped $100,000.

Recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data has revealed the national average deposit needed to secure a mortgage is no $106,743, a 16% increase from January 2019, and the first time in Australia’s history the average deposit has exceeded $100,000.

The ACT had the largest house deposit increase since 2019, with the upfront amount required surging by 24 per cent to 117,790. NSW was just 1% behind at 23% for an average of $128,469.

The average deposit in Tasmania has climbed by 17% to $81,438 while Queensland (13%) and Western Australia (14%) sit at $95,784 and $92,784 respectively.

South Australia is the only capital city offering stable first home buying conditions with an 8% increase since 2019 to $85,710.

 

Prestige And Pricing: It’s Often in the Stars

When it comes to real estate, some people reach for the stars.

Many affluent buyers are as drawn to properties designed by so-called starchitects—architects who have achieved celebrity status for their exceptional projects—as they are to luxury cars or haute couture.

“Look at Birkin bags. Why are they worth so much? It all comes down to the brand,” said Ryan Serhant of Serhant brokerage in New York.

But starchitect projects also offer quality alongside the cache. Buyers also want to know their investments are safe, especially in a volatile market. Buildings by architects whose past projects have sold well and retained value are a safer bet.

“Buyers are not willing to take risks on those unknown developments, especially if they are not finished or don’t have a good percent sold,” said Vickey Barron, a New York City-based agent with Compass. She served as director of sales for the converted Walker Tower, built in 1929, and two other buildings by Ralph Walker, once called the “architect of the century” by The New York Times.

Ultra-high-net-worth buyers, or masters of the universe as Ms. Barron calls them, may be dazzled by the stars of the architecture world, but they also want value.

Mr. Serhant, who is something of a celebrity himself after nine seasons of Bravo’s television series “Million Dollar Listing New York” and its spinoff “Sell it Like Serhant,” agreed.

“In a new building, what you’re buying is the architect,” he explained. “You’re not just buying concrete and wiring and drywall, wood and metal. Anybody can create that. But if yours was designed, handled, studied, pored over by a famous architect who has a history of creating great properties that hold their value, then it works.”

Big Names Leave Big Impressions

Robert A.M. Stern is one such architect. His classic Manhattan towers are some of the most sought after in the city, according to Ruthie Assouline, a Compass agent in New York and Miami. She and her husband, Ethan, represented Mr. Stern’s 20 East End Avenue, an Upper East Side construction completed by the architect in 2015.

“Whenever we show in his building, and we’re speaking about Robert Stern, it’s always very impressive to people,” she said.

A new residential development by Mr. Stern on the Upper East Side, 150 East 78th, launched sales in January. The 17-story, limestone-clad tower will bring 22 residences to the neighbourhood and feature interiors by designer Robert Couturier and a rooftop terrace with Central Park views. Prices range from $5.2 million to $20 million.

An exterior view of 150 East 78th. Hayes Davidson

Some high-net-worth buyers even go so far as to collect apartments by the same architect, Ms. Assouline said. One example: Sting and his wife, Trudie Styler, who have bought in several of Mr. Stern’s buildings, including a nearly $66-million penthouse at 220 Central Park South.

An interior view of a residence at 150 East 78th. Hayes Davidson

Others look to starchitects when they are moving to a new city, Ms. Assouline added.

“In New York, talking about the architect was hugely important, and I see a lot of those same architects are now in Miami,” she said, noting examples such as architects like Renzo Piano, Jean Nouvel and the late Zaha Hadid. “That gives people a sense of trust and comfort, especially people from overseas…They don’t know the location as well, but they know who they’re buying, whether it’s people that they’ve read about, or their friends have bought in homes with that architect.”

Jean Nouvel is another collection-worthy architect. His eponymous firm is behind the new Monad Terrace in the South Beach neighbourhood of Miami, including the interiors and landscaping as well as the architecture. The project will feature a “reflection machine” between its reflective facade and the pool and lounge area, called the lagoon, at the centre of the property.

Exterior view of the new Monad Terrace in the South Beach neighbourhood of Miami. Monad Terrace / JDS Development Group

“He’s a master of art and light,” Marci Clark, managing director of strategy at the project’s developer JDS, said of Mr. Nouvel. The reflection machine is “this living art piece that is constantly changing, not just throughout the day and whatever’s happening with the clouds, but also with the seasons and time of year.”

Monad Terrace will have 59 units, with two- to five-bedrooms available. Prices start at US$3.36 million, and move-ins are set to start by early March. Other amenities include extensive outdoor space for residences and one of the largest green walls in Miami, Ms. Clark noted.

Back in New York, Mr. Serhant is representing the soon-to-be-launched 101 West 14th Street by Eran Chen of ODA New York, which will bring 44 homes by the in-demand firm to Greenwich Village in Manhattan.

Exterior rendering of 101 West 14th Street Binyan Studios

“[Chen] is a great architect because he’s created buildings that stand out from the crowd while also blending in,” Mr. Serhant explained. “He doesn’t design on a rectangle, then draw it out and see what fits in the rectangle. He created 44 individual homes, then had to put them together like interlocking puzzle pieces, which makes every single unit unique and specific to that owner.”

Many of the residences, which start at US$1.25 million, are duplexes with double-height living areas and private outdoor space. Amenities included a landscaped courtyard and a roof deck with an outdoor kitchen and views of the city.

Interior rendering of a residence at 101 West 14th Street Binyan Studios

Word Gets Around

Projects with big names attached to them often mean more publicity, with real estate publications eager to report on the projects of renowned architects. That was the case with the Lost House in London, a 2004 design by architect Sir David Adjaye, which went on the market in the fall, according to listing agent Guy Bradshaw of United Kingdom Sotheby’s International Realty.

“When it first launched, it got picked up all over,” he said. “People were fascinated by it.”

The home’s starchitect pedigree also attracted fashion shows and television filmings, Mr. Bradshaw noted. Scenes from British shows like “Spooks” and “Silent Witness” were shot at the home, which is listed for £6.5 million (US$8.9 million).

The ultrachic backdrop didn’t hurt, either. The three-bedroom, three-bathroom home boasts an open living space with three light wells that flood the space with light and create interior courtyards. It also features an indoor pool, an office above the garage and a sunken entertainment room whose lime-green walls and couches are in stark contrast to the rest of the home’s black walls and floors.

Mr. Adjaye is also the architect behind 130 William, an 800-foot tower with 242 residences in Manhattan’s Financial District. The project also includes five furnished homes designed by the luxury car company Aston Martin that come complete with an Adjaye-designed Aston Martin DBX. Prices range from about $700,000 to $8.2 million.

130 William, an 800-foot tower with 242 residences in Manhattan’s Financial District. Michael Kleinberg

The building launched sales in 2018, but during the pandemic, people who’d already signed contracts in the project wanted to upgrade, according to Scott Avram, senior vice president of the Lightstone Group, its developer.

Interior view of 130 William’s lobby. Michael Kleinberg

Closings began in December, and since then, 12 buyers opted for larger units at 130 William, according to Lightstone. An additional 13 residences were sold in March, and there were no discounts on the closing price.

“People who not only know New York, but also know the building best, are willing to reinvest in the building because they see that value,” he said.

 

 

Are You Emotionally Ready to Retire? Eight Questions to Ask Yourself

It’s one of the most important decisions many of us will ever make. And we often get it wrong.

I’m talking about retirement—and specifically, when to do it. If you are lucky enough to be able to determine your own retirement date, be grateful that this change is not being forced upon you. But also be aware that it isn’t a simple decision. Many of us know friends who thought they were emotionally ready but later regretted having retired. And we know colleagues who thought they were not ready, and then got sick or died young, filled with regret that they had missed out on a phase of life that could have been wonderful.

It doesn’t have to be this way. After seeing hundreds of individuals and couples in psychotherapy over many years, and writing a book on retirement, I believe that retirement-timing mistakes can be the exception rather than the rule. The key is to know what questions to ask yourself—and how to understand the answers.

To that end, here are eight questions that I think can make all the difference.

1. Every Sunday night, as I anticipate returning to work, do I look forward to finishing tasks, seeing friends and colleagues, and perhaps learning something new? Or do I dread another week of tedious tasks and difficult people?

To answer this takes a little soul-searching, especially after decades of simply accepting your weekly routine. But if you pay attention to your gut feelings at the end of the weekend, or at the end of a vacation, you’ll know whether your stomach is in an unhappy knot with worry, a happy knot with anticipation, or somewhere in between.

One CEO, whom I saw weekly from ages 59 to 69, had been in his position for 18 years. Although he would tell you he loved his job, he hated the angst he felt at the office every day—especially on Mondays.

Over time, he realised that he was hanging onto work as his refuge—the place where he found success and recognition—to avoid confronting issues he had at home.

People were shocked when he announced his retirement at age 67 because they thought he had nothing else in his life. But he knew the decision was right for him. For the next two years I saw him learn and grow and find other sources of happiness with his family. His stomach had told him what his mind was unable to see.

2) Have I thought carefully about my financial picture? What expenses am I prepared to cut if money becomes tight?

By this age, you should know what resources you need to live on and what you will have in income and savings for your retirement years. But people sometimes screw up, or circumstances screw them up. Maybe they (or a financial adviser) mismanaged their nest egg. Maybe the market collapses in a totally unexpected way just after they stop working. The unknowns are unknown.

So it’s a useful exercise to imagine cutting expenses if you ever have to. How might your life change in that way, and how would you feel about that? Are you emotionally prepared for it, or would it be best to keep working, at least for a while?

3) What do my already-retired friends, relatives and colleagues think?

You are unique, yes, but you can learn a lot from people you know and trust.

In my experience, seeking the advice of trusted friends is particularly important for successful women, who are prone to second-guess themselves and feel insecure about next steps, especially when it comes to retirement. They have often worked harder than men to establish their success, and the job has given them identity and independence. They think they will go crazy without work. But almost all are surprised how much they love retirement, how quickly they fill up their time with meaningful projects, and how much better they feelwhen they control their own time.

I have one friend who loved her job, and while she wanted to make some kind of change when she turned 65, she feared she would suffer a recurrence of her lifelong depression if she left work and had nothing to do.

Her husband advised her to continue working. Instead, she got a group of professional women friends together, and they told her: “Do it now! You’ll be glad you did.”

Their encouragement gave her the courage to see that she was ready for retirement—even if her fear didn’t allow her to see that. She found volunteer work with a political candidate she admired, she started speaking at schools about career choices, and she started discussion groups at the local YWCA, helping others make the retirement decisions that had been so hard for her.

4) Would I like part-time work for a more gradual retirement, or is “cold turkey” better for me? Is part-time work even realistic in my field?

The easiest emotional transition away from full-time work is sometimes a part-time or consulting contract, either with a new company or with your existing employer. It’s a question many would-be retirees should be asking themselves.

It often works well, allowing a retiree to test the waters if they aren’t absolutely sure it’s the right time to leave the workforce completely. But people need to do their homework before they assume the answer is yes. I saw in therapy a former chief financial officer who at 66 wasn’t quite ready to retire fully. So he took a job handling the books for another company. He learned within the first week how different that system was from his old one, how upset he felt when he couldn’t quickly pick up nuances from his underlings and how angry he got when his boss criticized him. He quit within one month.

Although in the end it turned out well—thanks, in part, to therapy, which helped him to improve his marriage and understand the possibilities in retirement—it was a traumatic period that could have been avoided had he answered this question with more care.

5) Do I have hobbies or interests that could fill my time? Is there volunteer work that I’d like to do?

Some people are so consumed with hobbies already that they barely have time to work, while others have never had a hobby and doubt that they can think of anything in retirement. But being able to answer this question in the affirmative is often crucial: The most successful retirees seem to need either part-time volunteer work or hobbies that they love and that keep them busy.

Still, people who assume they would like volunteer work would do well to explore the idea fully before answering this question. If you fall in love with the concept of a volunteer job, it’s a good sign you’re ready to make the big move.

But it is entirely possible that you’ll find it tedious—especially if you’ve been a boss during your career. It is often a shock to offer your time, and then be asked to stuff envelopes or work in a boring gift shop. Or you may be honoured to be asked to be on a nonprofit board, but then walk into a hornet’s nest of infighting that you had thought you had left behind in your old job. You may also find that a large financial contribution is expected.

6) What friends do I have now that involve neither my career nor my partner?

This is a question that men, in particular, need to ask themselves.

People seldom think about which work friendships will continue in their postretirement life. In fact, they have no idea whether their co-workers are really friends or not. They are often shocked in retirement when they call former co-workers for lunch and are told “no.” Also, men have a tendency to think that their wife’s friends are their own; they are not. There is a famous quote: I married you for better or worse, but not for lunch.

In fact, a survey I did with groups I spoke to showed that on the question of “Who is you best friend?” more than 60% of men said “my wife,” while less than 20% of women said “my husband.” Friendship is not as easy for most men as it is for most women. Men think it’s a compliment to name their wife as best friend, but it’s really not. We all need best friends as well as spouses/partners.

So before retiring, think hard about whether you’re going to have those social connections that most of us crave and need to stay healthy, whether we think we do or not.

7) What role is my partner playing in my decision about retirement?

The decision should be yours as much as possible. You don’t want to blame your partner if things go wrong, as tempting as that will be.

Nevertheless, it is hugely important to understand the motivation behind your partner’s advice on whether you should retire. Is she already retired and pushing me to be more available? Is he getting ready to retire and doesn’t want to be bored at home alone?

Your relationship will thrive much more in retirement if you both know not only each other’s surface meanings but also the deep feelings involved. In other words, this question is important as a catalyst to a conversation—a lot of conversations—so that there are no surprises after the fact. Once one of you retires, a lot of those conversations that never took place when work was a refuge are suddenly on the table. It is much easier to have those conversations earlier rather than later.

I counseled one couple for four years. They were the same age, both accomplished and working in jobs they enjoyed. They had friends who were planning a year in Paris, and then a year in London. He decided it was time to retire and assumed she would feel the same. He was shocked when she said she wanted to work for another five years.

The repercussions were ugly. He accused her of ruining their lives, and their children all took his side. But she held her ground. Despite the pressure, she just wasn’t ready. After much discussion in therapy, they came to an understanding: He was ready and she was not. He came up with other interests to pursue while she worked, and they agreed they might spend two years abroad when she retires. They are still happily married and she hasn’t retired yet.

I am often asked whether couples should retire together or at different times. There are good individual reasons for each position, but I generally recommend that husbands retire first. This may happen naturally because women are usually younger and have gotten serious about their career later. In that case, husbands who have never learned to cook or clean or organize the home have time to learn these skills and then share more equally in these tasks after both are retired.

8) Do my partner and I have similar ideas about travel or where we want to live in retirement?

In my survey, the No. 1 reason people felt they might divorce after retirement was because they wanted to live in different places and have different lifestyles—the woman often wanting to be near grandchildren; the man wanting sun and sports. This is a difficult area in which to find compromise. But asking yourself whether you’re on the same page before retirement is a crucial first step, rather than just assuming you are seeing things alike. It could have a big effect on whether you decide you’re emotionally ready for retirement.

Similarly, travel can be another deal breaker if not talked about ahead of time.

A man I know has always loved to ski. After he and his partner retired, he became obsessed with planning trips to exotic ski destinations. But his partner wasn’t on board, preferring to play tennis and lie on beaches in warm climates. Their arguments grew more fierce. My turn/your turn didn’t work because they were both unhappy half the time. Finally, they tried separate vacations. Fortunately, that has worked like a charm—for now, anyway.

Had they asked themselves this question ahead of time, had they talked it out calmly when it was still in the future, they would have saved themselves a lot of angst and a near-breakup. They might have come to their separate-vacation solution earlier. Or one or both might have decided that, in fact, they weren’t ready for retirement.

***

Retirement is wonderful, but it can also be difficult. “Am I ready?” is an emotional journey into yourself, as well as an assessment of your situation. There will be no perfect decision, but you’ll fare better if you consider all of the options carefully.

There is usually some excitement in every new stage of life. After raising kids and working hard and doing the best we can, this is the first time that most of us have had total control over our lives. It can be the best time ever—time to learn a lot about ourself, finally “growing whole” in so many ways. Are you ready for that?

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: April 12, 2021

Sydney And Melbourne’s Clearance Rates Slide

Auction markets resumed on Saturday following last weekend’s pause in activity for the Easter holiday break.

Clearance rates continued to reflect boom-time market conditions in all capitals however Melbourne and Sydney were well down on recent weekend results posting 79.1% and 82.4% clearance respectively.

Sydney, while strong at 82.4%, was well below the 90.4% recorded a fortnight ago and reported the lowest clearance rate since the 81.1% recorded on Saturday January 30.

Auction numbers in the Harbour City remained robust with 785 listings while the median price for houses sold at auction on the weekend of $1,550,000 was only 1.4% lower than the previous fortnight’s results.

Melbourne fell to a year low after the Easter holiday break reporting a rate of 79.1%. A total of 905 homes were listed for auction which, while healthy, produced a median price of $945,750 for houses sold at auction on the weekend, down 6.8% from Super Saturday.

However, despite Sydney and Melbourne’s slip, Brisbane performed well at 90.7%, while Adelaide (86.4%) and Canberra (92.5%) continued to surge.

Across the nation listings numbers were also, predictably lower compared to the auctions conducted over Super Saturday a fortnight ago, with markets slowed by school holidays.

Data powered by Dr Andrew Wilson of MyHousingMarket.com.au

Prestige Property: Olio Mio Estate, Pokolbin, NSW

Olio Milo Estate presents the unique opportunity to acquire an opulent escape nestled into the world-renown Hunter Valley.

Located in Pokolbin, the Hunter Valley’s oldest continuous wine regions, the approximately 63-acre vineyard and olive grove arrives with 8-bedrooms, 6-bathrooms and 4 car parking.

Here, and with Southern European flair, the decadent home is split into 6-bedroom main residence and a separate 2-bedroom guest house.

Once guided up the long palm-lined driveway to the private entrance, the warm invitation of the Tuscan styled residence is immediately felt. The beautifully landscaped grounds feature a swimming pool, mature gardens, an abundance of outdoor entertaining areas – including a pizza oven and alfresco terrace – ideal for entertaining.

Once inside, the southern European charm extends throughout the home with floor to ceiling picture windows capturing panoramic views of Pokolbin valley and large open plan living room – complete with stoneworked wood-burning fireplace – allow you to settle in and relax.

The main residence sees three living areas alongside the kitchen as well as five bedrooms (three with ensuites).

Of the bedrooms, upstairs sees the master retreat, with dressing room, bathroom and sitting room with commanding views of the Pokolbin valley.

The lower level is complete with an office and a cellar – ideal for storing the Stormy Ridge wine the property produces.

The guest house sees interiors of a contemporary style and offers two bedrooms, a kitchen, bathroom and its own private courtyard entrance.

Beyond the spacious accommodation, the property also produces Olio Mio premium olive oil from its grounds and holds a complete olive oil processing plant on site, as well as a six-acre vineyard that produces Stormy Ridge Wines.

Whilst gated and intensely private, the estate is remarkably close to Pokolbin village centre and is roughly 2 hours north of Sydney.

The listing is with Cullen Royle’s Deborah Cullen (+61 401 849 955) and Richard Royle (+61 418 961 575). Price guide, $7.5 million; cullenroyle.com.au

P&G Worked With China Trade Group To Sidestep Apple Privacy Rules

Procter & Gamble Co. helped develop a technique being tested in China to gather iPhone data for targeted ads, a step intended to give companies a way around Apple Inc.’s new privacy tools, according to people familiar with the matter.

The move is part of a broader effort by the consumer-goods giant to prepare for an era in which new rules and consumer preferences limit the amount of data available to marketers. P&G—among the world’s largest advertisers, with brands such as Gillette razors and Charmin toilet paper—is the biggest Western company involved in the effort, the people said.

The company has joined forces with dozens of Chinese trade groups and tech firms working with the state-backed China Advertising Association to develop the new technique, which would use technology called device fingerprinting, the people said. Dubbed CAID, the advertising method is being tested through apps and gathers iPhone user data. Through the use of an algorithm, it can track users for purposes of targeting ads in a way that Apple is seeking to prevent.

Apple is planning a software update in coming weeks that will require app users to choose whether they want their activity to be tracked across other companies’ apps and websites. Apple has touted the new software as an important step for putting privacy controls in users’ hands. Device fingerprinting runs afoul of Apple’s rules, and the tech company has said it would ban any app that violates its policies.

“The App Store terms and guidelines apply equally to all developers around the world, including Apple,” an Apple spokesman said. “We believe strongly that users should be asked for their permission before being tracked. Apps that are found to disregard the user’s choice will be rejected.”

Facebook Inc. and ad-tech firms have been vocal critics of the Apple changes, fearing users won’t consent to being tracked. They say the flow of user data is critical to providing more tailored digital advertising that better resonates with consumers.

P&G, whose involvement hasn’t been previously reported, said in a statement that it is providing input to the trade group consistent with the company’s goal of finding ways to “deliver useful content consumers want in a way that prioritizes data privacy, transparency and consent. That means partnering with platforms and publishers—both directly and through our advertising associations across the globe,” it said.

The company declined to provide additional details about the program, including whether it intends to use the technology.

P&G was involved in testing CAID, the people said. The testing has also involved ByteDance Ltd., the parent company of TikTok, and Tencent Holdings Ltd., according to people familiar with the matter. Those companies operate some of the most widely used apps in China.

Through apps, CAID collects user device data, such as the device start-up time, model, time zone, country, language and IP address. Based on China’s personal information security standards, most of those data aren’t counted as “personal information.” But a so-called device ID can be generated by algorithm based on these data. That device ID can achieve a similar tracking effect as the identifier that Apple is allowing users to block.

CAID can be used without having to obtain user consent. If in operation, it could track activity even if a user had opted out of tracking through a pop-up prompt Apple is using with the rollout of new privacy controls. Recently, Apple has issued warning letters to app developers who have used tools like CAID, asking for their removal within 14 days.

Also involved in the China-based effort are business units of accounting firms Deloitte LLP and PricewaterhouseCoopers as well as ratings company Nielsen Holdings PLC, according to documents of the advertising association that were viewed by The Wall Street Journal. Representatives for PwC and Nielsen didn’t respond to requests for comment, and a spokeswoman for Deloitte declined to comment.

Apple’s changes are expected to most affect marketers, such as game makers, that aim to get apps installed on iPhones. Large advertisers such P&G, which can use their own data for advertising, will see less impact, said Aaron Shapiro, former chief executive and co-founder of Huge, a digital ad agency that has worked with P&G and McDonald’s and was acquired by Interpublic Group.

Still, P&G—which has spent years building a formidable data operation—has a lot at stake.

“Advertising effectiveness in digital is all about the data,” Mr. Shapiro said. “Even if this issue is not a problem, they might just be forward-thinking, which is they have to proactively put in place solutions for future clampdowns that are going to happen.”

Apple’s privacy changes are set to upend the digital ad industry and come after P&G has sought for years to carefully target digital ads at would-be buyers. The consumer-goods giant spent $7.3 billion on advertising in the past fiscal year and has long used its hefty ad budgets to push the tech industry for better ways to prove that digital ads reach their intended targets.

P&G marketing chief Marc Pritchard has advocated for a universal way to track users across platforms, including those run by Facebook and Alphabet Inc.’s Google, that protects privacy while also giving marketers information to better hone their messages.

Frustrated with what it saw as tech companies’ lack of transparency, P&G began building its own consumer database several years ago, seeking to generate detailed intelligence on consumer behavior without relying on data gathered by Facebook, Google and other platforms. The information is a combination of anonymous consumer IDs culled from devices and personal information that customers share willingly. The company said in 2019 that it had amassed 1.5 billion consumer identifications world-wide.

China, where Facebook and Google have a limited presence, is P&G’s most sophisticated market for using that database. The company funnels 80% of its digital-ad buying there through “programmatic ads” that let it target people with the highest propensity to buy without presenting them with irrelevant or excessive ads, P&G Chief Executive Officer David Taylor said at a conference last year.

“We are reinventing brand building, from wasteful mass marketing to mass one-to-one brand building fueled by data and technology,” he said. “This is driving growth while delivering savings and efficiencies.”

China is P&G’s second-largest market. The company said in 2017 that it would invest $100 million into its China digital innovation centre, in part to bolster its digital marketing.

Facebook has been among the most vocal opponents of Apple’s proposed changes, which could hurt its core ad business. If users opt out of sharing their info with the social-media giant, for example, the company would lose some of the data it uses to create profiles of individuals for ad targeting. Advertisers say they would also have a harder time measuring the return they get for their ads.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reiterated in recent weeks that the change could make it harder for small businesses to market to customers. He also said it might bolster his own company’s platform, making it a more appealing place to conduct transactions if online advertising in general isn’t as effective.

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: April 8, 2021.

Golf Courses Target Those Who Think 18 Holes Is Just Too Many

Golf has been a game of 18 holes ever since the ruling bodies of the sport decreed it so at the end of the 19th century. But now, some course operators—and even the U.S. Golf Association—are challenging the idea.

The idea is that less could be more, in terms of breathing much-needed new life into the game. When would-be golfers don’t play, the main reason given is the length of an 18-hole round—typically four hours or longer.

While pros and many serious players will continue to play 18 holes, the industry is looking at ways to shorten the game for others. Lots of courses are marketing nine-hole options, and some tout even fewer holes than that.

“The most common complaint we hear is that the game takes too long,” says Steve Skinner, chief executive of KemperSports, a Chicago-based owner and manager of more than 100 courses across the country. “We need to let them know golf does not have to be a four- or five-hour experience.”

The USGA has lent its stamp of approval to shorter games, beginning with its “Play 9” initiative, launched in 2014, consisting of TV ads, especially during the heavily watched U.S. Open and U.S. Women’s Open telecasts, and an effort to give owners marketing ideas to promote the nine-hole option at their courses. The association also permits scores from nine-hole games to be posted on its USGA Handicap Index.

“The nine-hole round, the two-hour experience, is much closer to the type of entertainment people usually have,” says Rand Jerris, senior managing director of public services for the USGA. “Going to a movie. Two hours. Going to dinner. Two hours. Two-hour windows seem to fit comfortably in the American lifestyle. For people like that, nine holes works.”

According to the National Golf Foundation, there are 3,777 nine-hole golf facilities in the U.S., or about 26% of the total number of courses.

For the millennial

The shorter game is particularly targeted at millennials, who currently are playing a lot less than their parents or grandparents did at a similar age, mainly due to the game’s length, says Mr. Skinner.

To Kevin Berliner, at 32 a millennial himself, the problem is the mercurial nature of his generation.

“It’s about perception. Millennials will wait 3½ hours for the best burger in town, but will say 3½ hours for golf is too long,” says Mr. Berliner, who is a medical-device salesman and participates in the Young Executives Program at Cantigny Golf, a public course in Wheaton, Ill.

Cantigny and other courses market nine holes as an option for all golfers. But, as Mr. Berliner says, the shorter round is particularly attractive for people in his age group, especially at the end of a working day.

“It’s not just the golf course that matters,” Mr. Berliner says. “If we can go to a place where you can play nine holes and then get a burger and a beer, that is very enticing to the younger generation.”

Indeed, many facilities are looking to pair shortened rounds of golf with food and drink. Various versions of “Nine-and-Dine” promotions are being marketed to couples and families, and some locations are cutting even more holes. A six-hole round of golf with an on-course happy hour after play is offered at Chambers Bay, a course managed by KemperSports just outside of Seattle and the site of the 2015 U.S. Open.

Urban setting

Skyway Golf Course in Jersey City, N.J., offers another possible alternative—a shortened game, and beautiful greens, in a more urban setting. Built in 2015, this upscale, public, nine-hole course features challenging holes with dunes and a view of the Manhattan skyline. TJ Wydner, who oversees the facility, says Skyway did more than 40,000 rounds last year despite being closed for six weeks because of Covid. He says the course is more accessible and popular with time-compressed serious golfers who want to squeeze in a quality two-hour round.

Golf-course owners, especially in expensive urban areas, may find another benefit of fewer holes: cost. “We know that land is expensive and that it is expensive to maintain 18 holes,” Mr. Jerris says. “We know for the game to be sustained, it has to be on a smaller footprint.”

Covid surprise

The timing for a shift to shorter games and courses seems favourable. The big story in the early 2000s had been the closing of many golf courses as a result of overbuilding for a big boon that never came. When Covid hit, operators prepared for the worst last summer.

Instead, the opposite occurred. With many entertainment options closed, people flocked to golf courses seeking to be outdoors, and to find a sense of normalcy. According to the National Golf Foundation, golf in the U.S. last year experienced a 14% increase in rounds from 2019, and that figure would have been much higher if virtually every course hadn’t been shut in the spring. More telling was the volume from June through year’s end: Packed courses had approximately 75 million more rounds nationally than in the same stretch in 2019.

Another dynamic also came into play. With people working more at home, thus eliminating their commutes in many cases, many found time to play golf, perhaps by sneaking out for an early-morning nine or shutting down the computer for a late afternoon round. In previous years, typical tee sheets often had plenty of vacancies from 2 to 5 p.m., Mr. Skinner says. Not last year.

“Those times were full every day,” Mr. Skinner says. The pandemic “completely flipped the tee sheet.”

Mr. Skinner does not think it was a one-year trend either. With expectations that many people will continue to work remotely once things return to normal, that means they will again have more time to play golf.

Mr. Jerris believes it is incumbent for operators to be creative, giving golfers more alternatives than just playing 18 holes. He notes that some courses are experimenting with fees based on the numbers of holes played or by the hour.

“Golf operators have to understand they have a lot of unused inventory on their tee sheets,” Mr. Jerris says. “Perhaps they can send players off the back nine when it is empty in the early morning. They can look at sending people out to play a few holes when there isn’t much daylight left. Those kinds of things are found revenue at no additional expense.”

Ultimately, it is about getting and keeping people engaged in the game, Mr. Skinner says. He speaks from personal experience. Even though he is a leading golf-industry executive, his children never got into the game before last year. During the pandemic, he often played late afternoon, nine-hole family rounds. Those outings led to his 23-year old son, Jack, getting the bug, as he played more than 30 rounds last year. Mr. Skinner now describes his son as “being addicted” to golf.

That is exactly the aim of the Play 9 campaign and other initiatives to get people out to the course. The idea is for them to become returning golfers, no matter how many holes they play.

“Golf is an addictive game,” Mr. Skinner says. “But first we’ve got to get people out to experience it. Once they do, hopefully they keep coming back for more.”

 

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: April 7, 2021.

Are Low Interest Rates A Risk to the Property Market and Economy?

OPINION

It is to the astonishment of most economists, politicians and property experts that we are experiencing an extraordinary V shape recovery.

This week’s fundamental economic good news is that the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.8%, smashing expectations. The property market seems to be booming, job adverts are increasing and consumers are now freely going back to pre-Covid-19 spending levels. Millennials are once again ordering smashed avocados whilst leisurely completing their online home loan applications in order to begin the hunt for their first property purchase. That debut purchase, mind you, is now mostly sponsored by the government’s extraordinarily generous schemes, such as ‘home builder’ ($2billion worth) and other various grants (providing up to $50,000 per person).

This is a far cry from expectations a year ago, when Prime Minister Scott Morrison sternly prepared Australians for a 6-month hibernation, followed by a high unemployment rate and a long and hard economic recovery.

Despite current positive economic euphoria, there are some very respected and seasoned investors, politicians and economists who are extremely worried — of the view that the economic recovery, both locally and internationally, is founded on fragile thin ice.

There is a high risk that both our local economy and international economies may generate inflation past the prescribed target of the 2%-3% tolerance of central bankers around the world. This would place the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, under significant pressure to increase interest rates, despite his assertions that rates will stay put for at least 3 years.

Lowe’s motivations would be to avoid the undesirable economic and social impacts of hyperinflation, akin to past historical experiences that lead to the Great Depression of the ‘30s, the late ’70s oil crisis and the ’80s, where many people can remember living through official interests of 18.5%.

During the past few weeks we’ve seen a number of global central bankers — notably as those from Russia, Brazil and Turkey, among others — increase their official interest rates as their economies simply do not have the financial capacity to continue printing money as freely as our economy.

Increase in interest rates would put downward pressure on asset classes such as property and shares, whilst undermining consumer confidence — resulting in lower spending and impeding a full economic recovery.

The current unemployment trend would very quickly change from positive to negative. The most alarming comment is that both monetary and fiscal policies have pretty much been exhausted during the pandemic. Worse still, if the Government was unable to support the market, it could lead to a market collapse like the crashes of 1987 and 2004 and the various property market corrections we have experienced in the past.

The rationale for such divergence of economic opinion is fundamentally based on the fact that we’re living through an economic experiment. The combination of monetary and fiscal policy employed by the Government and RBA has never before been tested — think zero interest rates, Quantitative Easing, Job Keeper, Job Seeker and mortgage payments deferrals to name but a few.

Another way to appreciate this is via the below graph prepared by AMP. It demonstrates the hypothetical green line if Covid-19 had not happened. The blue line depicts actual GDP figures.

Despite Australia’s GDP being in excess of 3% for the past two quarters (for the first time ever), we remain 2.4% below than what we would have been if Covid-19 never arrived. Our unemployment was mid 4% pre-Covid, with wage growth peaking at a mere 1.4%p.a., whereas today unemployment sits 5.8%.

It is the RBA’s fundamental economic assumption that in order for inflation to shoot past 3% maximum traditional target, interest rates must be kept low and we require the unemployment rate to fall to 3%. This is because in the current economic situation, wage inflation is the key element to push overall inflation. According to many economists, it  could take years for unemployment to reach a rate below 4% and which therefore supports the RBA’s expectation.

The estimated financial cost to future tax payers to ensure we have this V shape recovery is estimated to be circa $350b, roughly 17% of our GDP. This is 5 times larger than any stimulus that was provided during the GFC.

And so, despite the surging asset values, it is unlikely for the economy to suddenly overshoot the green line while a number of industries, such as tourism and international students, remain subdued (and let’s not forget those industries being targeted in our ongoing trade war).

The true economic recovery picture will be seen in the next two quarters of GDP figures, where either the fear of inflation will abate or crystallise into reality.

Paul Miron has more than 20 years experience in banking and commercial finance. After rising to senior positions for various Big Four banks, he started his own financial services business in 2004.

msqcapital.com

Meet The Chatbots That Might Manage Your Money One Day

When it comes to banking and finance, chatbots are everywhere. In the future, they’ll be doing more than answering your questions and providing phone numbers, according to people who work in artificial intelligence.

Chatbots will be more proactive, says Zor Gorelov, chief executive of Kasisto, a company creating conversational AI for banking and finance clients. They’ll be able to anticipate individuals’ needs and offer advice before users even ask a question, though there is still a long way to go before many of these features become a reality.

Instead of pointing you to a resource such as a phone line or FAQ page, chatbots could one day be resources themselves, able to offer highly personalised responses to individual questions and scenarios.

Daria Zabój, product marketer at ChatBot, an AI software developer, says chatbots will be able to analyze investment questions, such as whether to invest in gold or bitcoin, in real time. At Chatbot, products like Cleo and the Covid-19 Risk Assessment Chatbot already take questions and process them to offer limited advice, but Ms. Zabój says that tools like this need more years of practice and thousands more conversations to improve their personalized instruction.

Fidelity Investments imagines a world of virtual assistants that will greatly reduce the need for clients to call and speak to a person. Decades from now—or years, depending on how quickly the tech advances—a bot like this could evaluate itself on task completion by better perceiving what an individual wants from an interaction.

Chatbots may become more lifelike by incorporating audio and humanlike forms. As augmented reality grows in popularity, users may want to invite the chatbots into their physical environments. This way, individuals could try out consumer products or ask for advice from a chatbot that answers their questions via voice assistant or computer-designed avatars.

As these chatbot experiments go mainstream, however, Ms. Zabój predicts some users will want companies to ask for their input on what feels too lifelike.

More people have to use chatbots to build better databases of chats and improve the bots, says Szymon Klimczak, chief marketing officer of LiveChat, ChatBot’s parent company. “As of now, all these scenarios are still very basic because the industry is still very young,” he says.

 

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: April 7, 2021

First Home Buyers Need A Decade For Deposit

Deposit saving Property

Just over one in 10 (11%) of first home buyers now need to save for more than 10 years before breaking into the housing market.

A poll of 1028 first home buyers by comparison website Finder.com indicated that would-be buyers are taking longer to reach the 20% deposit threshold as the average deposit reaches six figures amid booming property prices.

One in four need between five and 10 years, nearly two in five (38%) need between two and five years, while only 7% manager to save the deposit within a year.

According to Finder, the required deposit for an average loan had risen by 16 per cent nationally in just two years, reversing any deposit affordability gains and taking the national average deposit price to $106,743.

First home buyers in NSW require $128,469 and $113,092 in Victoria. The average deposit in Tasmania has climbed to $81,438, to $85,710 in South Australia, to $95,784 in Queensland and to $92,784 in Western Australia.

“While low interest rates mean the cost of paying your mortgage each month has come down, rising property prices are lengthening the amount of time required to save for a deposit,” Finder spokeswoman Sarah Meggison said.

Further, more than half of first home buyers (53%) indicated they are spending more than 30 per cent of their income on their mortgage repayments, a sign of mortgage stress.