Chinese consumers watching the value of their homes fall are losing the confidence to spend on designer goods
3 min
How closely is demand for $3,000 handbags tied to home prices in China? Quite closely, it turns out, which is unfortunate for luxury brands.
Europe’s luxury stocks fell in early trading Tuesday after China’s economic planning agency failed to announce additional measures to kickstart growth that some investors had hoped for. The sector is still up 10% on average since Beijing launched its initial stimulus plans late last month.
Beijing hopes a cut to mortgage rates, and lower down-payment requirements for buyers of second homes, will jump-start the country’s troubled housing market. A package of loans to brokers and insurers to buy Chinese shares has had initial success at lifting the stock market.
Luxury spending in China has traditionally been more correlated with its home prices than with the financial markets or overall economic growth. Around 60% of net household wealth was tied up in property before prices peaked in 2021. Barclays estimates that falling home prices have destroyed about $18 trillion in household wealth since then, which is equivalent to roughly $60,000 per family.
This, along with worries about the wider economy, is hurting consumer confidence. Retail sales rose just 2.1% in August compared with the same month last year, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. When global luxury brands start to report their third-quarter results next week, Chinese demand is expected to have slowed since they last updated investors.
Flagging sales come at an unhelpful time for Europe’s luxury companies, which rely on Chinese consumers for a third of global luxury spending. After several bumpy years during the pandemic, luxury brands and their investors hoped that a comeback in Chinese spending would compensate for a slowdown among Europeans and Americans.
This looks increasingly unlikely. Luxury sales to Chinese shoppers are expected to shrink 7% in 2024 and by 3% next year, according to UBS estimates. As luxury brands have high fixed costs, including the most expensive retail rents in the world, a slowdown with such key customers could have an outsize impact on profit margins.
The last time the luxury industry went through such a rocky patch in China, barring the pandemic, was between 2014 and 2016 when Beijing was cracking down on corruption, including officials who were gifting Louis Vuitton handbags and Rolex watches in exchange for political favours. The global luxury industry barely grew for two years during China’s anticorruption drive, which also coincided with a property-market correction in the country. It didn’t help that shoppers in other markets were also tiring of logos back then.
Europe’s luxury stocks look expensive today compared with that time. As a multiple of expected earnings, listed brands’ shares now trade at a roughly 40% premium to their 2014 to 2016 average.
To justify the higher price tag, Beijing’s housing and wider economic stimulus would need to indirectly lift luxury demand. Measures rolled out so far may not be enough to slow the slide in home prices. China’s housing market is oversupplied by around 60 million units, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.
New incentives to kick-start consumption are expected soon but will probably target mass-market products like white goods. China already rolled out trade-in subsidies for home appliances earlier this year and a range of consumption coupons.
None of this is very helpful for sellers of expensive luxury goods. For brands to see a recovery, Chinese consumers that spend anywhere from $7,000 to $43,000 a year on luxury products would need to feel much better about their finances than they currently do. Spending by this group has fallen 17% so far this year compared with the same period of 2023, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group.
Half-finished, abandoned housing estates are a big headache for China’s government, and are also on the mind of executives in Paris and Milan. Though the fortunes of luxury bosses likely isn’t high on Chinese officials’ priority list, their fates may be intertwined.
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Australia’s wealthy class is expanding fast, and Knight Frank says that a surge in billionaires is reshaping the nation’s luxury property market.
3 min
Australia’s luxury property market is being quietly reshaped by one of the most significant wealth expansions in the world.
According to Knight Frank’s latest Wealth Report, the country’s billionaire population is set to grow by 77 per cent over the next five years, rising from 48 to 85 individuals.
That surge sits within a broader wave of wealth creation. Ultra-high-net-worth individuals, those with more than US$30 million, are forecast to increase by nearly 60 per cent to over 26,000 Australians by 2031.
Globally, the pace is accelerating. The report reveals that 89 new ultra-wealthy individuals are created every day, a figure that underscores a structural shift in capital formation rather than a cyclical upswing.
For luxury property markets, this is not just a headline number. It is a demand driver.
Australia’s wealth story is increasingly underpinned by diversification across resources, finance, technology and services, creating a depth of private capital that is both mobile and strategic.
And mobility is key. The ultra-wealthy are no longer tied to a single market. Instead, they are operating across multiple global hubs, maintaining footholds in cities like London, New York and Singapore, while using Australia as a stable base.
In this environment, real estate becomes less about shelter and more about positioning. Trophy assets remain desirable, but capital is increasingly being deployed across the full risk spectrum, from long-term holds to value-add opportunities. For Australia, the implications are clear. As wealth expands, so too does the expectation of product, and the locations that can attract it.
The billionaire effect
While property remains central to wealth preservation, the latest data shows that capital is increasingly spreading across luxury asset classes, albeit with a more disciplined approach.
Knight Frank’s Luxury Investment Index recorded a modest 0.4 per cent decline in 2025, signalling a stabilisation phase after several years of correction.
But beneath that headline number is a more telling shift. Collectors are moving away from speculative buying and toward assets defined by rarity, provenance and cultural significance.
Impressionist art led the market, rising 13.6 per cent, buoyed by landmark sales including a US$236 million Klimt painting. Watches also performed strongly, up 5.1 per cent, driven by continued demand for brands like Patek Philippe and Rolex.
At the same time, more volatile categories have corrected. Whisky values fell 10.9 per cent, while parts of the fine wine market have softened following pandemic-era highs.
Perhaps the most notable trend is behavioural. Younger investors are entering the market through fractional ownership platforms, gaining exposure to high-value assets that were once out of reach.
For property, the parallels are clear. The same focus on scarcity, narrative and long-term value is increasingly shaping buying decisions at the top end of the residential market.
Global wealth
The growth in billionaires is not just increasing demand, it is changing where that demand is directed.
In Australia, Brisbane has emerged as one of a handful of global cities experiencing rapid change in its luxury positioning. The city’s transformation is being driven by infrastructure investment and the 2032 Olympics, with top-end apartment prices rising from around US$6 million to more than US$10 million in just 12 months.
Luxury price growth has remained steady, with Brisbane rising 2.1 per cent in 2025, while the Gold Coast recorded 2.8 per cent.
At the same time, buying power is tightening. US$1 million now buys 5 per cent less in Brisbane than it did five years ago, reflecting the upward pressure on prime markets.
The trend is not confined to capital cities. Regional lifestyle markets are also capturing attention. Geelong’s waterfront has been identified as one of the world’s hottest luxury residential markets, driven by a combination of coastal amenity, infrastructure and relative value.
In these markets, pricing is no longer the sole driver. Lifestyle, accessibility and long-term growth are increasingly shaping buyer decisions, particularly among globally mobile wealth.
Alternative luxury assets
Beyond residential property, high-net-worth individuals are continuing to diversify into alternative assets that combine lifestyle and investment potential.
One of the most compelling examples is vineyard investment. Knight Frank’s Global Vineyard Index highlights the Barossa Valley as one of the best-value wine regions globally, where US$1 million can secure more than 18 hectares of land.
Despite a 10 per cent decline in land values over the past year, the broader outlook remains positive, particularly as the global wine industry shifts toward premiumisation.
This “trading up” trend is seeing consumers favour higher-quality, provenance-driven wines over mass-market products, reinforcing the long-term appeal of established regions like the Barossa and Eden Valleys.
For investors, the appeal lies in the intersection of lifestyle and capital preservation. Vineyard assets offer not only production potential, but also a narrative — something increasingly valued in a market where experience and authenticity carry weight.
