INTERVIEW: MONIKA TU, Founder / Director Black Diamondz Group

Monika Tu

Monika Tu doesn’t mince words. Nor does she carry any passengers.

How else to explain what is now a rather well-worn tale – a story, hers, that details a Chinese immigrant who landed in Australia from Shenzhen in 1988 without any English.

She studied, claimed an RMIT scholarship and subsequently turned a basic market stall into a successful international electronics business. She’s since found incredible acclaim — and arguable dominance — as a property agent within Sydney’s tightly-held prestige property market.

There’s more to her work than simply opening residential doors — helping to forge and foster cultural and community links for her largely immigrant (predominantly from China, Middle East, Europe) client list, alongside arts philanthropy and an unwavering dedication to each and every day.

We caught up with Tu to discuss the difficulties of 2021 — and to better understand the road ahead.

Kanebridge News: There’s an incredible resilience that seems to frame the Sydney prestige market – but how difficult was 2020 in regards to your business and key clients?

Monika Tu: Obviously, Covid-19 had huge impacts on many businesses last year and ours was no exception. The restrictions on international travel hit us hard, however, we saw a surprising rise in local Chinese buyers wanting to buy a property quickly.  People may think that most of our buyers are international. However, that’s not the case and many of these people had been holding out for the ‘perfect’ property — but when Covid hit they relaxed their expectations slightly because their main aim was to secure a property.

KN: And how do you view the road ahead?

MT: I see the market continuing to do well. The prestige market will always follow a different trajectory to the general market, but I don’t see things slowing down.  With the influx of movie stars and wealthy individuals wanting to call Australia home, there’s only one way prestige property is going, and it’s up.

KN: There’s a belief in some economic quarters that things must naturally end, and soon.

MT: People have always said this, even prior to the pandemic. But Sydney and Australia’s prestige property market is robust, resilient, and has proven itself repeatedly.  As long as Australia is seen as a world-class lifestyle destination, people will always be willing to pay.

KN: What was the allure of property that made you start Black Diamondz?

MT: If I’m honest, it wasn’t so much the allure of property that made me start Black Diamondz. It was the gap in the market of servicing the multitude of high net-worth individuals, predominantly from China, who were looking to call Australia home. Some agents were more than capable of finding them a great property but could not open other doors such as schools, lifestyle, business opportunities, networking, and philanthropy.  This is the gap that I knew I was able to fill.

KN: How did you get your start in the prestige market?

MT: Black Diamondz really started by chance.  There were a lot of conversations at the dinner table about new migrants searching for luxury homes, but a lack of services or guidance for them when it came to making decisions.  One of my friends had a friend from China looking for a property and was having no luck with local real estate agents. I took him for a drive around Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs and just asked him what type of house he liked. He picked one, I knocked on the door and the owners said it was not for sale. Fast forward five days later and they sold it for $13.5 million. That is when I realised the need for this type of service was out there and took full advantage.

KN: Does the size of the deal you’re working to close ever intimidate, or is it something that drives you?

MT: For me it’s never about the size of the deal. I treat a $5 million apartment with the same work ethic that I treat a $50 million home. For me it’s all about giving my clients, both buyers and sellers, the very best experience possible.

I love smashing records, like selling Sydney’s most expensive home in 2019, but those things don’t happen every day and if that’s what drives you, you won’t last long in real estate.

KN: What do you think gives Black Diamondz a competitive edge?

MT: On the surface, it’s our proven ability to achieve consistent, market-leading results over the past ten years, as well as our international database. But deeper than that is our standing within the community. I know almost everyone in Sydney, and I have nurtured these relationships over the years. This is the key to a successful real estate business — your network and influence.

KN: You’re a self-confessed workaholic, is that a necessary mindset to achieved success especially in the market you work?

MT: I think the entrepreneurial mindset I have is what has made me successful — not only in real estate but in life. I never stop working but I also don’t see it as work, it’s my life and it’s what I do day in, day out.

Blackdiamondz.com.au

Auction Results On Maintained Ascent

In yet another weekend of unprecedented results, Saturday (March 13) saw three capital cities record auction clearance rates above 90%.

Sydney (90.6%), Adelaide (90.9%) and Canberra (93.4%) led the national results.

It is the second time in three weekends that the Sydney market sat above 90%, reporting 716 auctions, a rise on the 655 of the weekend prior and the 644 12 months earlier.

Sydney’s results saw rates of 90.4% for houses and 90.3% for units — with a median house price from the weekend’s results of $1,550,000.

Melbourne, meanwhile, returned from a holiday weekend with a surge in listings. 978 homes were reported for auction, well above last weekend’s 405, though still below the 1090 offered on the same weekend last year.

Melbourne returned a clearance rate of 81.5%, up on last weekend’s 80.6%. The Victorian Capital recorded a median house price of $1,100,000 for weekend sales — up on the previous weekend’s $948,000.

Data powered by Dr Andrew Wilson of MyHousingMarket.com.au

Tom Cruise’s Action-Packed Colorado Estate Lists For $50 Million

Tom Cruise

Tom Cruise’s Telluride, Colorado, estate—which is full of sports-oriented amenities befitting an action star—is returning to market for approx. $50 million.

This isn’t Mr Cruise’s first effort to sell: Seven years ago, he tapped a real-estate agent to market the property for around $76 million, though it was never publicly listed, according to current listing agents Eric Lavey of LIV Sotheby’s International Realty and his colleague Dan Dockray. “I’m not sure [Cruise] was ready to sell it yet,” Mr Lavey said.

Ultra-private, the roughly 320-acre property is located at the end of a gated mile-long driveway that is surrounded by a forest of Aspen trees. It borders a national forest on three sides and is a few minutes downtown Telluride. Located on a hillside, the property sits at an elevation that allows the owner to look down on planes arriving at the nearby airport, the agents said.

“Everybody knows who owns this property, but you can’t see it from almost anywhere,” said Mr Dockray.

Mr Cruise spent several years designing and constructing the native stone-and-cedar home, which was completed in 1994. Roughly, 10,000 square feet, the four-bedroom house is designed in classic mountain style, with wood-beamed ceilings, wood-panelled walls and stone fireplaces. There is also a three-bedroom guesthouse on the property.

The activity-oriented features include a large sports court, a dirt bike and snowmobile track and an extensive network of trails for hiking, snowshoeing and all-terrain vehicles. There is also a spa, an office and a three-car garage.

A spokeswoman for Mr Cruise didn’t respond to a request for comment on his reasons for selling. The listing agents said they believed the actor hadn’t used the house in quite some time. They noted that the market in Telluride has been extremely active over the past few months as a result of the Covid-19 crisis, with buyers coming in from major cities across the country.

“People sat down during this lockdown and said ‘What am i doing with my life? I want a better lifestyle,’” Mr Dockray said.

Mr Cruise, 58, has appeared in movies like “Top Gun” and the “Mission Impossible” franchise. He has recently been filming in Europe.

Property Of The Week: 6 Crews St, St Kilda East, VIC

Stylish, sophisticated and a warm embrace of the past – this astute St Kilda entertainer perfectly melds contemporary living with period perfection.

From the alluring double-fronted street presence, this lovingly restored Victorian cottage offers all ease and elevated liveability across an updated set of three bedrooms and two bathrooms, replete with deck and lush, landscaped rear.

The open plan travertine kitchen boasts views to the garden as well as Smeg appliances and spills to a well-planned north-facing living area bathed in light.

Each bedroom (one featuring original brick fireplace) holds integrated BIRs/storage with the master owning an extensive unit of twin storage alongside a luxury ensuite.

The main bathroom features skylight and soaker bath, with other highlights including clever built-in storage, dedicated laundry room, split heating/cooling system, high ceilings, American Oak floors throughout and off-street parking.

Positioning here is equally desirable – in easy reach of the beach and local cafes, shopping on Carlisle and Chapel Streets and walkable access to trams, trains, Alma Park, Acland Street, St Kilda Primary, St Michaels Grammar and much more.

For auction Saturday March 27 with a guide of $1.55 – $1.6; buxton.com.au

Eight Smart Home Must-Haves

8 Smart Home essentials

Smart domestic features increasingly inform luxury living. And where once this didn’t move past a robotic vacuum or some sensor lights, the ultimate modern home should be stacked with technology that ultimately makes for an elevated daily experience.

Here, eight absolute must-haves.

Savant Pro

Allows for the control of all smart home gadgetry under one system – think lighting, sound, TV, climate control, blinds and more. Video tiling and the TrueControl app allow you to add up to 9 things to a single screen – including from various streaming services – giving you complete control over your entertainment, while. the system also allows you to program ‘scenes’ to be set, which can lock doors, turn off light and engage security cameras from the touch of an Apple watch.

POA; savant.com

Offmat Tulèr Responsive Kitchen

The world’s first responsive kitchen bench, Tulèr weighs, cooks and washes through gesture controls and touch surfaces enabled by a system of state-of-the-art sensors. You’ll feel like a domestic sorcerer as you magically wave at the workspace to open drawers, commence induction cooking, make the kitchen sink appear and disappear and activate built-in countertop scales – which displays weight via a built in light or chosen device.

POA; tipic.it

Embrace Smart Mirror

Believe it or not, ‘splash-proof’ isn’t even the main selling point here, this so-called ‘smart mirror’ making for easy living with in-built voice command, gesture and touch screen capabilities. This allows a user to work with Google assistant, send emails, skype or video chat with friends, control the lights or play music while getting ready. Or, watch shaving tutorials and more through the 23-inch touchscreen display.

Approx. $1390; embracesmartmirror.com

Ecobee Smart Thermostat With Voice Control

Once connected to an air-conditioner, this thermostat learns and adapts to an occupant’s schedule to deliver comfortable temperatures at all times. Make adjustments via voice control, set timers and schedules and also regulate humidity (if connected to a humidifier).

Approx. $346; ecobee.com

LG’s CX OLED TV

Arguably the smartest TV in market, LG’s CX OLED leads the pack with its webOS technology. The user interface is built around launch bar for apps, inputs and features – which like a computer is customisable. You can Miracast images from your smartphone, screen share and use voice commands through LG’s own AI platform, or trust favourites like Amazon Alexa and Google Assistant. To help keep the image crisp, Dolby Vision IQ automatically adjusts the picture depending on the ambient light in the room.

$4295; lg.com

Vivint Home Security & Bit Defender Box

Vivint has built a reputation as the go-to for smart home security. With a range of customisable packages, Vivint offers smart sensors (for doors and windows), smart locks (to control remotely), doorbell cameras, outdoor cameras and more all controllable via a single app. You can set the outdoor cameras to record someone’s approach and view them via your smartphone. Physical threats aside, hackers are increasingly breaching smart home technologies. Enter the BitBox Defender, which monitors every device connected to a residence’s network and alerts to any threats by smartphone.

POA; Vivint.com / $149; bitdefender.com

Wi-Charge R1 Wireless Charger

More gadgetry means a greater need to charge. Here, Wi-Charge and its R1 ultra-compact chargers create wireless charging from any power or light socket. With accuracy of 9 metres, it projects infrared beams across the room charging a given device without a second thought.

Coming soon; wi-charge.com

U by Moen Smart Faucet

This, tap, as we would say, offers temperature-controlled water accessible through Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa. It remembers favourite temperatures and reacts to conversational requests like ‘a little warmer’. Beyond temperature control, the U by Moen can also disperse water in specific quantities, handy for when cooking and you need exactly 150ml. Offered in a wide variety of styles to cover most kitchen designs.

Approx. $620; moen.com

Five Rural Estates To Own

The well-documented escape to the country continues unabated – metro dwellers looking for something more given ascendant city prices and COVID’s forced rethink on space and the traditional working week.

Here, we cut through the dross to deliver five standout escapes from across the country.

 

Olio Milo Estate, Pokolbin, NSW

Olio Milo represents the pinnacle of Hunter Valley living. The country estate features a 25.5-hectare vineyard and olive grove, including a small olive oil and wine business.

Elsewhere, the southern European styled six-bedroom main residence is accompanied by magnificent grounds, while a two-bedroom guest house, managers cottage and olive processing plant round out what is an exceptional and unique offering.

POA; Cullenroyle.com.au

 

5 Blake Court, Mount Samson, QLD

Courtesy Innov8 Property

Situated in a breathtaking location — with views of the hills and beyond — this impeccable residence is a combination of Hamptons and contemporary Queenslander, with soaring ceilings and beautiful timber adornments.

Beyond the two-hectares of land and jaw-dropping pool, the five-bedroom, four-bathroom, four-car garage pile offers impeccable ‘granny flat’, cinema room, Smeg, Miele and Liebherr appliances and a raft of smart home gadgetry.

POA; Innov8property.com.au

 

534 Donaldson Road, Ancona, VIC

Donaldson

‘Hayfield Rise’ is an incredible take on high-country architectural modernity, situated in Victoria’s impressive Ancona Valley.

Sat on 20 hectares, the home’s s four pavilions, five bedrooms and four bathrooms offer space, light and designer flourishes at all turns.

The home – which also wraps around a central pool – is characterised by the use of recycled timbers, concrete, stone and galvanised iron, touching on the past and also developing a unique, modern narrative.

The gardens, by acclaimed landscape designer Paul Bangay, surround the house and include fruit tree orchard, rose garden, perennial garden beds and more.

POA; Mcgrath.com.au

 

 

3383 Chittering Road, Chittering, WA

This is a majestic and modern 1000sqm home perched on a rise that allows stunning views across the Brockman River Valley.

The single-level house – which rests on 61-hectares – boasts five-bedrooms, three-bathrooms and room for 14 cars. Yes, 14. Floor to ceiling windows dominate, so too the use of cedar and Toodyay stone.

Wrapped around a luxury 25-metre pool, it’s outside you’ll also find an LED floodlit tennis/basketball/netball court, with an all-weather surface and fully enclosed cricket pitch as well as large, undercover playground area.

Located in the hills outside Perth — meaning trips to the ‘big smoke’ remain an option whenever needed.

$4,750,000; ljhooker.com.au

 

71 Sand Road, Jupiter Creek, SA

Courtesy: Dee-Anne Hunt

A heady combination of privacy, luxury and functionality, ‘Bandarrah’ provides the best in country living.

The expansive 574sqm residence offers six living spaces, five-bedrooms and three-bathrooms and is set across 21.85-hectares. There’s also designer pool and impressive entertainer’s pool house.

Set up for horses with 16 paddocks and four holding yards, the shedding complex will prove attractive to any serious car collector or those seeking a solid workshop.

While you won’t want to leave – Adelaide remains an easy 35-minute meander.

POA; Williamsproperty.com.au

From Remote Work to Hybrid Work: The Tech You’ll Need To Link Home And Office

Hope your magic Mary Poppins, go-back-to-the-office bag is ready. Let’s see, you’re going to need your laptop, your laptop’s power adapter, your headphones, your headphones’ power adapter, your ring light, your ring light’s power adapter…

Oh, and you thought this was just a one-time pack? That’s cute. Prepare to do this two to three times a week, as you split time between your home-office and your office-office for the next, well, forever.

Welcome to the exciting new world of hybrid work.

“Somewhere in the vicinity of 60% of the workforce are choosing the hybrid option,” said Gartner analyst Suzanne Adnams, “which means their ideal is working at home and coming into the office three days a week.”

If I had a dollar for every time I heard “two to three days at the office” while reporting this column, a socially distanced steak dinner would be on me.

What isn’t as clear? Where you’ll go once you get to the office. That depends on your employer. Here are three possible options:

• Same-old desking: Business as usual. You still get your own desk, but maybe now, your chair and your colleague’s chair are farther apart.

• Hot desking: The horribly named trend where employees don’t have a permanently assigned desk. Also referred to as hoteling, flexing or desk swapping, this is becoming the leading hybrid option for a key reason: It doesn’t make sense to have one desk per person if people only come in a few times a week.

• No desking: The office isn’t for solo work but collaboration. So instead of desks there are mostly group meeting areas, with a privacy phone booth here and there. Companies including Dropbox have committed to this route.

I certainly can’t tell you in detail what’s going to happen at your company, but I can say this hybrid life will make you even more dependent on your tech tools. The very tech that enables us to work from anywhere (laptops and smartphones, video calling, Slack) is also the technology that stands to make this so messy.

Your colleagues are at the office whiteboarding but you’re stuck at home in a little Zoom box? You survive the commute to the office, only to discover you left your USB-C dongle on the kitchen table. Hey, Bob From Accounting, stop screaming on your video call. This isn’t your basement!

But I have hope. Not only did we prove our tech resilience when we embarked on the Great Work-From-Home Experiment a year ago but the makers of our most depended-upon products are paying attention and adapting for this next phase. Here are a few of the biggest hybrid challenges and some potential solutions.

I’m back to the good old commute, but at my hot desk, I have nothing, not even a coffee-stained mug.

There are no two ways about it, you’re going to need a bigger bag. And for the record: Anyone who tells you a backpack is only for middle schoolers is just wrong.

When you head to your building (assuming you remember where it is), you might have to pull out your phone. Your employer might require Covid-era health check-ins and other precautions, but it also might give you the opportunity to book your workspace, through systems like Robin or Salesforce’s Work.com.

Congrats, you made it to “your” desk. I can’t guess the tech that will be available when you get there, but expect it to be pretty bare-bones, especially if you BYOL (you know, bring your own laptop).

In Salesforce’s redesigned spaces, for instance, employees get just a desk and two side-by-side monitors, Jo-ann Olsovsky, the company’s chief information officer, told me.

At least Salesforce employees will be able to keep other belongings in lockers and easily get other tech peripherals—mice, keyboards, headsets, chargers—from tech vending machines situated around the offices. You don’t pay. Just swipe your employee badge, hit the button for your item and grab it from the bottom tray.

If your office’s vending machines only dispense stale Doritos, you might request stuff through your IT department. Regardless, you’ll likely be dragging your favorite equipment to and fro. Certainly, more expensive gear that you don’t own two of—tablets, microphones, noise-canceling headphones—will be in your bag.

For the smaller stuff—battery packs, charging cords, a mouse and the miscellaneous adapters to connect drives, memory cards and cables to your laptop—you’ll need a dongle bag. Don’t have one yet? Oh, you must. The one I just got, the InCase nylon accessory organiser, has mesh pockets and straps for organizing different cords and adapters. It lists for $50.

I’m at the office with some colleagues. Other colleagues are at home.

If you think going back to the office means the end of video calls, I have bad news for you. Expect most meetings from now on to have a video component and there to be even more cameras in the office—and not just in the conference rooms.

“It’s hard to imagine going into an office now and all those little closed spaces that might have had a phone in them not being video enabled,” Logitech Chief Executive Bracken Darrell told me, adding that he expects some companies to put webcams at hot-desk stations as well.

Executives who work on collaboration platforms at Microsoft, Google, Slack and Zoom said a key need was for employees at home and at work to feel like they’re on a level playing field when on calls and working together. Here are initiatives they’ve launched:

Microsoft Teams: A system called Teams Rooms links conference rooms with remote users who want to join in. Voice recognition in new compatible speakers can identify who in a room is talking, and the person’s name will appear on screen. You won’t be embarrassed dialling in from home, either: A new presenter mode removes the background of your video and places you in front of the presentation, or positions the presentation in a box over your shoulder in “reporter mode.”

Google Workspace: Google also powers speakers and cameras for the office, but as people leave the house, they’ll be using their phones more for video calling too. An update to the Google Meet phone app will better display people on video. A coming update to Google Docs, Sheets and Slides will include the ability to overlay voice and video chat as people work together on documents.

Slack: An audio-room feature is coming, so users can quickly hop on a conference call. Think Clubhouse but for quick meetings. The company, which Salesforce agreed to buy, is also adding a feature for sharing prerecorded video messages. This could help a manager send an announcement to everyone, whether they’re in the office or at home.

Zoom: The pandemic’s breakout star has its own conference-room service called, say it with me, Zoom Rooms. The company’s Zoom Rooms Controller app for iOS and Android lets people in the conference room control meetings from their phones—no need to touch the grimy shared keyboard or room control panel.

A bigger challenge: What if the in-person meeting includes some physical stuff, like a whiteboard? How do the people at home keep up and contribute?

Google and Microsoft have tried to make that easier. Microsoft makes the Surface Hub—a giant Windows tablet for offices that runs the cloud-connected Microsoft Whiteboard app. Those on a Microsoft Teams call can view and add to the digital whiteboard. Same idea with Google’s Jamboard. People in the office can scribble on the giant screen and those in a Google Meet video call can view and add to it. Zoom works with third-party hardware makers to integrate whiteboarding.

I’m working from home today—how do I share that with the world?

The upside to all this is being stuck at home won’t be as bad as it once was. You’re already honing your setup, and some companies even plan to continue subsidizing employees home-office needs. And now that you’ve gotten used to overcommunicating your schedule and deadlines? You just keep doing that, wherever you are.

Google’s added some features to its calendar to help, including what it calls “segmentable working hours.” You can make it clear to colleagues what location you’re working from or if you’re doing something else, like exercising or commuting. Slack is also exploring adding more status options to indicate your whereabouts.

This return to the office may have a slick name—hybrid work—but make no mistake, it’s as hybrid as Frankenstein’s monster. Just remember, one year ago we got through a pretty cataclysmic work change, and we will do it again. Just don’t forget about the dog.

SURGE IN NATIONAL HOUSING AND RENTAL PRICES

REIA HOUSING

The weighted average capital city median price of houses and other dwellings officially increased for the December quarter 2020.

Figures from the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) report ‘Real Estate Market Facts’ indicate a 6% rise for houses and 0.9% rise for other dwellings during for the period.

“The weighted average median house price for the eight capital cities increased to $825,205,” said Adrian Kely, REIA President. “Over the quarter the median house price increased in all capital cities,”

“At $1,211,488, Sydney’s median house price continues to be the highest amongst the capital cities, 46.8% higher than the national average.

“At $490,000 Perth has the lowest median house price across Australian capital cities, 40.6% lower than the national average. Over the 12 months to the December quarter, the weighted average capital city median house price increased by 6.6%.

The weighted average median price for other dwellings for the eight capital cities increased to $601,345, a quarterly increase of 0.9%. The only city to not see a rise was Adelaide.

The REIA figures also outed a rise in median rent for 2-bedroom houses in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra and Darwin.

Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart, meanwhile, remained steady.

“Other dwelling rents during the quarter, the median rent for 2-bedroom other dwellings increased in Perth, Canberra and Darwin, remained steady in Brisbane and Hobart but decreased in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide,” added Kelly. “Darwin had the largest increase over the quarter [6.6%].”

Regional Areas Increasingly Unaffordable

Regional areas have felt the affordability pinch far greater than capital cities according to the latest report by the Housing Institute of Australia (HIA).

“Housing in Australia became less affordable in the December 2020 quarter due to rising house prices and a slight fall in average incomes. Despite the decline, housing is considerably more affordable than the average over the past 20 years,” stated Angela Lillicrap, HIA’s Economist.

HIA’s Affordability Index is calculated for each of the eight capital cities and regional areas on a quarterly basis and takes into account the latest dwelling prices, mortgage interest rates and wage developments.

“Regional areas experienced a larger decline in affordability than the capital cities. The regional index fell by 3.7 per cent in the quarter to return to the level it was in December 2019,” added Ms Lillicrap.

Ms Lillicrap also said that COVID-19 was a driving force that shifted consumer preferences in the first three quarters of 2020 with migration data showing more Australians left the capital cities during that time since records began in 2001.

“As a consequence of this shift in population, house prices in regional areas outperformed the capital cities over the past year.

“Sydney continues to be the most unaffordable market with an index reading of 66.4 in the December quarter. Melbourne is also considered an extremely unaffordable market with an index level of 77.5,” concluded Ms Lillicrap.

The HIA Housing Affordability Index for the capital cities decreased by 2.5 per cent in the December 2020 quarter, meaning affordability deteriorated. This was driven by declines in Darwin (-4.9 per cent), Brisbane (-3.1 per cent) and Adelaide (-3.1 per cent). Hobart and Perth both declined by 3.0 per cent, followed by Canberra (-2.8 per cent) and Melbourne (-1.4 per cent). Affordability in Sydney declined by 0.8 per cent. Regional areas declined by 3.7 per cent over the same period, 

 

 

How to Understand The Small-Stock Rally

Small stocks so far this year have beaten their large-capitalisation brethren by a wider margin than they have in more than two decades, raising questions about what is driving the outperformance and what it means for the overall market ahead.

The year-to-date return for small-caps through the end of February was a remarkable 25 percentage points greater than that of large-caps (as measured by the 20% of stocks with the smallest market caps vs. the comparative quintile of the largest). While it isn’t unexpected for small-cap portfolios to beat large-caps over time—a long-term tendency that Wall Street analysts refer to as the “size effect”—what is unusual is the magnitude of the outperformance. It has averaged just 0.9 percentage point over all two-month periods since 1926, according to data from Dartmouth professor Ken French.

You have to go back to January and February of 2000, at the top of the internet-stock bubble on Wall Street, to find a two-month stretch in which the small-caps beat the large-caps by more. Their margin of outperformance over those two months was 41 percentage points.

Any parallel to the top of the internet-stock bubble is ominous, to be sure. But there are several idiosyncrasies to small-caps’ recent performance that stand in the way of drawing any straightforward analogies to the frenzy in small stocks that heralded the 2000 tech-stock crash.

Indeed, according to several researchers, small-caps’ recent strength may actually be something else in disguise—that is, it may have to do with factors other than just size, such as the battle between growth and value stocks.

That doesn’t mean there is nothing to worry about in this bull market, where valuations are stretched thin for many stocks. But it does mean that investors who are focused solely on the small-cap/large-cap divergence could be missing the bigger picture.

Here’s why.

1. Value versus growth

One distinction that is crucial for understanding the relative strength of small-caps this year has to do with where small- and large-cap stocks lie on the growth-versus-value spectrum. Small-cap stocks currently are far closer to the value end of the spectrum than large-caps, meaning they are trading for lower prices relative to their net worth.

A stock’s place on this spectrum is defined by its ratio of price to per-share book value, with the highest ratios at the growth extreme and the lowest at the value extreme. Consider the Russell Microcap Index, which contains the smallest 1,000 stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 index. Its average price-to-book ratio was 2.5 as of the end of February, according to Russell Indexes. That compares with a 4.2 ratio for the Russell 1000 Index (which contains the largest 1,000 stocks) and a 5.7 ratio for the Russell Top 50 Mega-Cap Index (which contains the largest 50 stocks).

These are significant differences, according to Kent Daniel, a finance professor at Columbia University and a former co-chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs. He says that, on average, small-cap growth stocks tend to underperform the market, while small-cap value stocks tend to outperform. Since 1926, he says, the smallest-cap stocks closest to the growth end of the spectrum have lost 3.3% annualized, while the smallest most value-oriented stocks have gained 13.3% annualized.

This pattern has been especially strong in recent months, making it difficult to determine what accounts for small-caps’ relative strength this year. But Prof. Daniel says there is the distinct possibility that it is really a “value effect masquerading as a size effect.” If so, a bet on small-cap relative strength continuing is really a bet that value will outperform growth.

That bet may pay off in coming months, he says, and value could continue to outperform growth for many years. But he also says that value stocks have lagged behind growth stocks for at least a decade now, and while there have been numerous predictions of a value resurgence over that time, it hasn’t happened—at least not yet.

2. Sector bets

The benchmark indexes for small-caps and large-caps have different sector weightings, which also makes it difficult to gauge whether the recent relative strength of small-caps is actually due to company size.

Consider the information-technology sector. The ETF benchmarked to the largest 50 stocks currently has a 38.6% weighting to this sector, more than three times the 12.7% weighting of the Russell Microcap Index.

Conversely, the microcap index has more than 10 times the weighting of the largest-50-stock ETF to the industrials sector (11.7% versus 0.8%) and more than double the allocation to the financials sector (17.6% to 7.1%).

These differences are a big part of small-caps’ year-to-date performance, since industrials and financials have each outperformed the information-technology sector. It was just the opposite for calendar 2020, and sure enough, the smallest stocks lagged behind the largest last year.

Until there are small-cap and large-cap benchmarks with the same sector weightings—Prof. Daniel says he is unaware of any currently—it will be difficult to determine what is driving small stocks’ relative strength. If it is being caused by differences in sector weightings, however, it is likely to persist only if the sectors in which the small-caps are overweight continue outperforming.

3. Is the small-cap effect real?

This discussion also points to a more fundamental question that many researchers have been asking in recent years: Does the small-cap effect even exist, in and of itself? That is, do smaller firms really have higher returns than larger firms, on average, over long periods?

Andrea Frazzini, a principal at AQR Capital Management and an adjunct professor of finance at New York University, has concluded that it exists only among a very narrow group of stocks. He says that some of the relative strength of small-caps in recent months traces to speculative fervour for stocks outside that narrow group, making it risky to bet that it will continue.

According to his research, small-caps are a good bet to outperform the large-caps only if you limit your focus to companies with high financial quality. By financial quality he means firms that are profitable, have robust profit growth and a stable earnings stream and a high dividend-payout policy, among other characteristics. Many of the small companies that have performed the best so far this year don’t qualify.

Companies that have been bid higher in recent weeks through social-media investor campaigns—such as GameStop and AMC Entertainment—are two obvious examples, but they are hardly alone in not qualifying for Prof. Frazzini’s high-quality category. Nearly half of the 2,000 companies in the Russell 2000 small-stock index, for example, lost money in 2020.

Prof. Frazzini’s research therefore suggests that, if you want to bet on a continuation of recent small-cap relative strength, you should focus on small stocks that score high on various measures of financial strength, safety and quality. And don’t sweat the comparisons to that internet-stock frenzy of 20 years ago.