Affluent Home Buyers Are Driving up Prices in Southern European Cities

Lisbon was home to the fastest growing luxury-home prices in the first half of this year, according to a report Monday from Savills.

With gains of 4.2% in the six months through June, the Portuguese capital bested the performance of any of the other 29 prime property markets globally analysed by the property firm.

Cities in southern Europe and the Middle East saw their high-end home sectors perform best, with Lisbon followed by Amsterdam, Madrid and Athens, which all logged capital value increases above 3% over the same time. Dubai rounded out the top five with growth of 2.9%.

In southern Europe in particular, prime prices are being driven by a lack of supply, and American buyers have become a “key prospective buyer base,” Savills said, “thanks to a comparatively strong dollar and a growing interest in the lifestyle on offer.”

In the U.S., meanwhile, persistently high interest rates have impacted demand across the. housing market, and as a result, prime residential prices have fallen in three of the four U.S. cities monitored in the report, with only San Francisco seeing positive growth of 0.7% for the first half of the year.

Los Angeles ranked at the bottom of the list, with luxury prices falling roughly 4%.

Across all 30 cities analysed by Savills, prime residential property prices “remained resilient over the first half of 2024,” recording an average growth of 0.8% and outperforming the 0.6% growth predicted for the year as a whole, the report said.

More than half (60%) of the cities recorded positive capital growth, “reflecting a level of relative confidence in the asset class,” according to Savills.

Looking ahead, “we predict an average capital value growth of 0.5% for the second half of the year, which would bring total 2024 growth to 1.3%,” said Kelcie Sellers, associate director at Savills World Research in the report.

“The ongoing supply-demand mismatch for high-end residential product is projected to fuel price growth in European cities such as Amsterdam, Lisbon and Barcelona, where 2% to 3.9% is forecast in the second half of 2024.”

This article first appeared on Mansion Global

The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.

Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”

Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.

The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.

But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.

Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.

“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”

Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.

Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”

Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.

Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.