Auction Markets Running Out Of Steam
The May seller rush continues to test the market.
The May seller rush continues to test the market.
Home auction markets reported mixed results over the weekend, May 22, as more record-level offerings tested buyer depth.
National listing numbers were again lower on Saturday but stayed within touching distance of the <ay record of 2563 reported two-weeks ago with 2333 auctions this past weekend.
The national average clearance rate increased to 82%, higher than the previous weekend’s 80.8% and the first rise in six weekends. However, despite the lift, it is smaller markets like Adelaide (90.1%) and Canberra (91.2%) carrying the results.
The larger auction capitals of Sydney and Melbourne are showing signs of fatigue and are expected to drift downwards over the next coming weekends.
Sydney reported a clearance rate of 81.5%, again lower than the 82.9% recorded the previous weekend. Saturday’s results were the fifth consecutive weekend of lower rates.
A total of 949 auctions were reported in the Harbour City, again just below the previous weekend’s 990.
Sydney has now recorded an unprecedented four consecutive weekends with more than 900 auctions, with this weekend’s median price of houses sold at auction sitting at $1,620,000, lower than the previous Saturday’s $1,641,000.
Melbourne reported a clearance rate of 76.9% which was again below the 78.6% of the previous weekend and just ahead of the 74,0% recorded over the same weekend last year.
Saturday, May 22 was the lowest clearance rate of the year so far.
A total of 117 homes were auctioned in Melbourne, close to the previous weekend’s 1159 listings.
Melbourne recorded a median price of $995,500 for houses sold at auction on the weekend which was 9.8% lower than the $1,093,000 recorded over the previous weekend, but 9.9% higher than the 906,000 recorded over the same weekend last year.
Data powered by Dr. Andrew Wilson of My Housing Market.
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The US housing market remains under pressure as high mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability and demand. Industry leaders say 2026 has been one of the toughest years for home sales, with slower price growth, weaker mortgage activity, and fewer buyers entering the market. However, experts say reduced competition and more price cuts could create opportunities for well-prepared buyers.
The typically busy spring season for the housing market was a dud, and the summer isn’t looking much brighter.
Housing services companies like Zillow Group and Rocket RKT +3.78% were loud and clear last week on earnings calls: Rocket CEO Varun Krishna called the quarter through June “one of the toughest spring housing markets in years.”
Jeremy Hofmann, Zillow’s chief financial officer, said on a conference call that the company predicted earlier this year that the market for mortgages would be flat. “We actually now think it’s going to be down low-to-mid-single digits,” he said.
The rest of 2026 will remain challenging for mortgage origination volume, says KBW analyst Bose George. The question now is what happens in 2027. “If mortgage rates remain [around] 6.75%, I think that’s going to be challenging even for next year,” he says.
But what’s bad news for mortgage companies could be a positive for bargain hunters. Buyers can expect prices to grow more slowly—or mildly decline—with less competition as long as mortgage rates remain unpredictable.
Mortgage rates at the beginning of the year were solidly below year-ago levels, notes Zillow senior economist Kara Ng. But they surpassed last year’s levels recently, she adds, referencing Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Last week’s reading, at 6.69%, was higher than year-ago levels for the first time in 2026.
“From the affordability point of view, it’s going to get more challenging in the second half of the year,” she says. “And when affordability gets more challenging, that impacts sales and home price appreciation.”
Mortgage application data tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association has cooled since the beginning of the year. The trade group expects that the number of mortgage originations in the remaining two quarters will lag behind last year’s levels, after exceeding 2025 levels in the first half.
Rocket’s early-stage data—which the company told Barron’s it derives from its brokerage Redfin, demand for its mortgage products, and signs in its servicing portfolio that a homeowner is preparing to refinance or move—“leads us to expect the third quarter mortgage market to be smaller than the second,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Brown, said on the company’s call. He added that such an occurrence is “something the industry has not seen since 2022.”
Prices will be about flat nationally, Ng says. Zillow’s most recent forecast, which shows how values are expected to change in the year ending June 2027, show them dropping in roughly half of the 100 largest U.S. metros for which data is available.
Buyers aren’t rushing in at a time when mortgage costs are rising and unpredictable. But those with the right combination of patience and cash could stand to benefit. “If you are financially qualified to buy a starter home, you are facing less competition and you’re more likely to get a price cut,” Ng says.