If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the coming weeks, a friendlier borrowing environment could make all the difference for some mothballed renewable-energy projects.

The returns generated by such projects once they are up and running are often predictable and modest, but because they require a large upfront expenditure, frequently funded in part by debt, they are sensitive to interest-rate fluctuations.

With recent economic data suggesting the Fed has plenty of room to cut, some investors say now is the time to get moving on renewable plans.

Thomas Byrne, chief executive at solar investor CleanCapital, said a drop in interest rates would affect a “not inconsequential amount” of solar developments under consideration. “We have had projects on hold that simply don’t make economic sense for us anymore because the borrowing cost was too high. So those projects will immediately unlock,” he said.

Byrne estimates some of these projects could begin construction by the end of the year and start generating energy next summer.

Solar and wind energy in particular stand to gain from lower borrowing costs, said Srinivasan Santhakumar, principal research analyst with the research firm Wood Mackenzie. “Higher interest rates have disproportionately affected the economics of wind and solar projects,” he said.

An interest-rate increase of 2 percentage points could result in a 20% jump in the cost of producing energy for utility-scale solar power over the life cycle of a project, according to a Wood Mackenzie analysis released in April. In comparison, the same increase might boost the cost of producing energy from gas by 10% to 12%.

Some developers may wait to see a steeper drop before making moves. “It’s definitely a phenomenon, particularly for the more sophisticated, more longer-standing developers who’ve had a history of surfing the ups and downs of the interest-rate spectrum and are also aware of the consequences for their own balance sheet of a long-term interest rate rise,” said Katherine Mogg, managing director at the New York Green Bank, a state-sponsored investment fund that focuses on filling gaps in energy transition financing. Mogg said she expects to see a modest uptick in requests for proposals in the coming months.

The Federal Reserve has signalled a rate cut at its next meeting in September, and most futures investors expect a quarter-percentage-point reduction, according to CME FedWatch. More than three quarters of investors expect the Fed to lower its benchmark rate, now in a range between 5.25% and 5.5%, by at least a full percentage point by year-end.

While a cut in interest rates is a positive for renewables financing, a durable boost for green projects may require a Goldilocks economic scenario in which a cut to borrowing costs don’t coincide with rising fears of a global recession, which could in turn drive investors away from the U.S., said Ron Erlichman, partner at the law firm Linklaters.

“There are a lot of different factors, like the old cliché of ‘headwinds,’ that affect transactions,” he said, adding that large-scale projects such as offshore wind, hydrogen and carbon capture frequently rely on foreign investment.

Fears of unchecked inflation and rampant increases in the cost of materials have cooled down somewhat in the past year, he said, but the looming U.S. election brings a fresh element of uncertainty . While many see a low probability of a full rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act, the legislation that provides game-changing tax breaks for renewables, an executive branch hostile to green energy could slow project permitting or otherwise “nibble at the fringes” of the landmark legislation, as Byrne put it.

“Having done this awhile and seen the cycles in the market, I still remain incredibly optimistic about renewables and energy transition in the United States,” Erlichman said.

In many ways, Alexandra Cruse is living the American retirement dream.

Cruse moved to Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., a year and a half ago to escape the cold winters in Massachusetts. She describes her financial situation as “perfectly comfortable” after a career in banking. She keeps active with yoga, volunteering at a local hospice, piano lessons, art classes and a bicycling group.

One thing she’s not interested in: saying “I do.” Cruse lost her husband of nearly four decades, Stephen, in 2015. And while she’s open to meeting a new partner, she has no desire to remarry.

“What would be the point?” said Cruse, 68. “Just the commingling funds is just too complicated.” Besides, “over 65, you’re not going to have any children.”

Plenty of American women are finding that they don’t need a husband to enjoy their golden years. Both men and women in their mid-60s or older are more likely to be divorced or never married than at any time in the past three decades. But the women are much less likely than their male counterparts to get remarried.

Part of the reason is that women have a smaller pool to choose from. They on average live about five years longer than men, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 53% of U.S. women 65 and older are divorced, widowed or never married, compared with 30% of men, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data by Bowling Green State University’s National Center for Family & Marriage Research.

But there are other considerations, too. Women are more likely to maintain stronger social ties with family and friends, which means they have more support after a divorce or the death of a spouse. And for both men and women, American society has become more accepting of couples living together outside of marriage.

Susan Brown, a sociology professor at Bowling Green and one of the authors of the Census analysis, said that many older women “don’t want to be a ‘nurse or a purse.’ ” That means, Brown said, that they “don’t want to provide care and they don’t want to jeopardise their own financial stability.”

That’s the case for Christy Sahler, who has been divorced for almost three decades. She has no plans to remarry, as she wants to ensure her assets pass only to her daughter.

“It’s a bit lonely having dinner on my own,” said Sahler, who is 61 and lives in Tucson, Ariz. “But I recognise that if I had a partner I’d be going home to make dinner for that person.” Being single also frees her up to do other things in the evenings, like yoga and pottery.

After a divorce or bereavement, younger women are more likely than men to find a new partner. That trend shifts after age 35. By age 55 to 64, men are twice as likely to remarry, and more than three times as likely when they are age 65 and older.

The last time Pew Research Center polled divorced or widowed Americans about their intentions to remarry , in 2014, 54% of women said they didn’t want to get married again. Only 30% of men gave the same answer.

Research shows that marriage tends to be good for a person’s finances. Married people have a higher median net worth and are more likely to be homeowners than their unmarried peers, thanks in part to their ability to split costs, pool assets and get certain tax breaks.

Divorce is financially detrimental at any age, but particularly punishing later in life when people have less time to catch up financially. Women who divorce at age 50 or older experience a 45% decline in their standard of living, while men see their standard of living drop by just 21%, according to a 2021 study in the Journals of Gerontology. That can make women especially hesitant about entering another marriage: They worry about having to go through the same thing again.

Remarriage can also create thorny disputes around issues like inheritance and power of attorney, especially when both partners bring children into the relationship. Widows and divorcées who remarry may lose eligibility to their former spouse’s Social Security benefits.

Norma Israel’s first marriage ended in divorce when she was in her 30s, and she lost her second husband to cancer in her 50s.

She wasn’t looking for another relationship when, a year later, a co-worker invited her to a concert. She and Larry Chase have now been together for a decade and live together in North Beach, Md. They share a love for music and travel, but they don’t share bank accounts. And Israel has no plans to put a ring on it.

“It’s hard for me to have three strikes,” said Israel, 63.

Chase said he would get remarried if it were important to Israel, but he’s equally happy not to.

“Society seems pretty OK with it nowadays,” said Chase, 78, who was previously married and has a son.

“We’re in love,” he added. “It’s a pretty nice life.”

Na’ama Shenhav, who teaches public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, found that when women’s wages increase relative to men’s, so does the share of women who choose not to marry. The share of divorced women also rises when women’s wages increase.

Rosemary Hopcroft, a sociology professor emerita at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, found that higher-income men are more likely to get married and remarried than men who make less money. For women, the effect is the opposite, at least for remarriage: Higher-income women are less likely to get remarried than other women.

“As women get older, the group of men they find attractive gets smaller and smaller; whereas for men, as they get older and more financially stable, the group of women they find attractive gets larger and larger,” said Hopcroft.

What’s more, longer lifespans mean people are looking at their golden years with a different time horizon. By the end of this year, the youngest of the baby boomer generation—around 70 million strong, or one in five Americans— will all turn 60 . According to the Social Security Administration, a 60-year-old man today can expect to live for nearly 24 more years, while a 60-year-old woman can expect to live for nearly 27 more years.

“For a lot of people that means thinking, ‘Am I going to stay in a potentially unsatisfying relationship for the rest of my life if the rest of my life is decades instead of years?’ ” said Jeffrey Stokes, associate professor at the Gerontology Institute at the University of Massachusetts Boston.

Today, overall divorce rates are falling. But the share of adults ages 65 and up who were divorced in 2022 was nearly triple the 1990 level, according to the Bowling Green analysis .

Lyn Silarski divorced in her early 50s after 16 years of marriage. A period of financial hardship followed, as she had to restart her career and deal with legal costs. She had to dip into her retirement savings and sell her house during a three-year spell of unemployment.

Today, Silarski is working as a graphic designer and living in a rented house in Manchester, N.H., enjoying the fact that she’s no longer responsible for the upkeep of the outdoors of the property. In her free time, she works out and goes hiking.

“I often say I wish I had a man to run around with, somebody who was a friend who wanted to do things, because I do have the girlfriends but they’re married and they’re busy,” said Silarski, 69.

Silarski, who has two sons and one grandchild, tried online dating, but found men her own age wanted to date younger women. Older men interested in a relationship with her were looking for someone to take care of them, she said.

“Perhaps someone might come along who would be an incredible fit,” Silarski said, “but I see that as kind of in the realm of miracles, really.”

Corrections & Amplifications undefined Research by Rosemary Hopcroft, a sociology professor emerita at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, found that higher-income women are less likely to get remarried than other women. An earlier version of this article incorrectly implied the research also found they are less likely to get married. (Corrected on Aug. 24)

Until a few years ago, Chinese factories supplied the world with Sharpie retractable pens and Oster blenders.

No more.

Consumer giant Newell Brands now makes those products, and more, at its own plants in the U.S. and Mexico. Many of its other products are made in factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand.

Chris Peterson , Newell’s chief executive, said the company’s shift reduces its dependence on China at a time when both the Democratic and Republican parties “are getting more protectionist in terms of trade policy.”

Tariffs are becoming an entrenched tool tying together geopolitics and trade , and they are playing a bigger role in long-term manufacturing and sourcing decisions. Nowhere are they hitting harder than in China, where importers and exporters are navigating an increasingly complicated regime of levies on goods ranging from semiconductors to mattresses.

“Tariffs have always existed and they’ve always been regarded as a cost of doing business,” said Simon Geale, executive vice president of procurement at supply-chain consulting firm Proxima. “But they’ve been getting much more teeth in the last five or six years.”

The new era of tariffs kicked off under the Trump administration with duties on imports from a swath of countries and a focus on Chinese products ranging from truck chassis to consumer goods.

The Biden administration kept most of the tariffs in place, and then added further duties on Chinese steel, semiconductors and electric vehicles, citing national security concerns and an industrial policy aimed at reviving American manufacturing .

The two candidates in this year’s presidential election look set to continue the trend, as trade, manufacturing and the tools to tie them together take a prominent role in the campaign.

Former president Donald Trump , the Republican nominee, has said he would roll out new tariffs with a potential 10% across-the-board duty on imported goods and a 60% tariff on goods from China.

Vice President Kamala Harris , the Democratic nominee, so far hasn’t indicated a desire to deviate much from President Biden’s trade policies.

Before becoming vice president, Harris diverged from Biden on Trump’s revised North American Free Trade Agreement, known as the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement. As a senator, Harris joined some Democratic lawmakers, saying it didn’t do enough to address climate change, suggesting Harris may have more of a focus on social justice issues when considering trade pacts.

Harris has been in lockstep with the president in the Biden administration.

At an electronics factory in Wisconsin last summer, Harris said she and Biden want to bring manufacturing jobs back to America. At a campaign event in North Carolina on July 18, she said Trump’s proposed universal 10% tariff “would increase the cost of everyday expenses for families.” She didn’t criticise current tariffs on Chinese goods .

Both Trump and Harris opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the expansive multination trade deal that was designed to expand alternatives to trading with China. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement immediately on taking office in 2017.

The trade policies pose a conundrum for companies. Do they continue sourcing from China and risk the potential impact of escalating tariffs? Or do they look outside China, where costs are higher, but duties and other geopolitical risks are lower?

Trump’s threat of universal tariffs has even spooked supporters. Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk , who has endorsed Trump, said he would delay a decision on a new plant in Mexico until after the election because “it doesn’t make sense” if Trump wins and puts “heavy tariffs” on vehicles produced there.

Shifting supply chains to other countries is complex. Companies must find new suppliers of raw materials and finished goods. Suppliers and sub-suppliers must be vetted to make sure they don’t violate increasingly stringent U.S. rules on issues such as forced labor.

Anne van de Heetkamp , a vice president of product management at supply chain and logistics technology company Descartes , said when trade tensions started ratcheting up five years ago companies weren’t in a hurry to shift supply chains. Now that the duties appear more permanent, Descartes’s customers are mapping out new global supply networks.

Surging exports out of Southeast Asia, India and Mexico suggest Newell isn’t alone in its desire to reduce reliance on China. The shifts are fuelling new logistics investments in factories, warehousing and transportation operations around the world.

DHL Express U.S., a parcel unit of German logistics giant Deutsche Post , added a new direct flight between Vietnam and the U.S. in 2022 to cater to rising exports that used to reach the U.S. via Hong Kong. CEO Greg Hewitt said the unit is also looking at expanding its networks along the U.S. -Mexico border to serve surging demand there.

Hewitt cautioned that China remains the world’s top supplier of manufactured goods and will likely hold that position because of its streamlined supply chains and low costs for raw materials and labour.

Retail industry trade groups and some executives warn some items can’t be produced anywhere else in the world and that escalating tariffs will simply raise consumer prices and fuel inflation. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that every percentage point increase in the overall U.S. tariff rate would increase core consumer prices by just over 0.1%.

“The problem is the best place to make shoes is China,” said Ronnie Robinson, chief supply chain officer at Designer Brands , parent company of footwear retailer DSW.

Robinson said for every dollar the government adds in tariffs, consumers pay an extra $2 to $4 at the checkout. “The reality is that you and I are paying for the tariffs as part of the ticket price when you go into the store and buy,” he said.

Robinson said Designer Brands sources about 70% of its footwear from China, down from 90% several years ago. He said the company aims to reduce its reliance further to about 50%, but China will remain the company’s largest single source of shoes.

Peterson said just 15% of Newell’s goods rely on products made in China today, down from more than 30% several years ago. He expects that by the end of next year the share will fall below 10%.

He said that when the company is searching for new Chinese suppliers one of its first questions is whether they have capacity or plan to add capacity outside the country.

“If a supplier doesn’t have manufacturing capability outside of China, we will not select them as a vendor for us,” he said.

The oldest members of Gen X are turning 60 next year. Many can’t afford to stop working any time soon.

Born between 1965 and 1980, Gen Xers launched their careers at the start of a massive shift in how Americans work. Companies moved from pensions that promise steady income after years of service, to plans such as 401(k)s that place employees’ retirement destiny in their own hands.

Some Gen Xers were hit hard in their prime working years during the 2008 financial crisis. Others are still paying off student debt. Their children are increasingly living at home well into adulthood, while their own aging parents often require care. Few believe they can rely on Social Security to make ends meet later in life.

By some measures, Gen Xers are worse off financially than their baby boomer predecessors. The median household net worth of Gen Xers between 45 and 54 years old was about $250,000 in 2022, about 7% lower than that of baby boomers at the same age in 2007, according to inflation-adjusted Federal Reserve data. That was the only age group that experienced a drop in median wealth over the 15-year period.

David Bryan, 55, earns about $35,000 a year as a school-bus driver and lives on Tybee Island, Ga. He doesn’t own property and has about $100,000 in retirement savings from his previous jobs as a railroad conductor and a researcher at a college foundation.

It’s a different life than that of his parents, who worked for decades for the sheriff’s department and the post office and received steady pension checks when they retired.

“As long as my body will let me, it’s better I keep working,” said Bryan.

The roughly 65 million Americans in Gen X are sometimes referred to as the “forgotten generation,” sandwiched between the larger and louder baby boomer and millennial generations. They are also called the “latchkey generation,” often coming home from school as children to an empty house. Goldman Sachs Asset Management in a recent report called Gen X the “‘401(k) experiment’ generation.”

For decades, employers often supported loyal workers in old age through traditional pensions with set payouts for life. The advent of the 401(k) system pushed the responsibility on to the individual—and Gen X was caught squarely in the transition.

“Gen X is the first generation where they were mostly expected to figure out their retirement on their own,” said Jeremy Horpedahl , an economics professor at the University of Central Arkansas and director of the Arkansas Center for Research in Economics.

The early champions of the 401(k) never thought that it would become the dominant way most Americans save for retirement. It is named for a line in the tax code changed in 1978 that gave executives a tax-free way to defer compensation from bonuses or stock options. Human-resources executives and economists jumped on the 401(k) as a way to encourage saving for rank-and-file employees.

By the mid-1980s, the number of active participants in defined-contribution retirement plans—such as 401(k)s—overtook those in defined-benefit plans—such as traditional pension plans—in the private sector. Now, private pensions are rare.

When Gen Xers entered the workforce, the 401(k) was a new concept. Features such as automatically enrolling employees in a workplace plan and automatically increasing contributions every year didn’t become commonplace until later.

Other common private retirement savings tools were also introduced in the last half-century. The individual retirement account—a tax-deferred investment vehicle—was authorised in 1974, while the Roth IRA—funded with posttax money, but tax-free when withdrawn—was established in 1997.

Gen Xers between 45 and 54 years old had a median account balance of roughly $60,000 in defined-contribution retirement plans at Vanguard Group in 2023, according to the firm. For most Americans, that is well below the target some financial experts recommend of having roughly six times one’s salary saved for retirement by age 50.

John Kotrides, a 54-year-old living near Charlotte, N.C., had contributed to 401(k)s ever since he started his career in banking about three decades ago. But whenever he moved to a different employer, he usually cashed out his 401(k) because there was a more urgent expense, such as a home repair or moving costs.

Keeping the money invested in the stock market didn’t seem worth it after witnessing crashes like the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Retirement seemed far away.

“You no longer have a generation of people whose employer took you from your first job into your retirement,” he said. “When we were offered 401(k)s, I don’t think that was a great deal.”

Kotrides says he doesn’t have much in retirement assets, besides the home he owns, where he lives with his wife and two daughters, who are 12 and 20 years old. After quitting his job as a mortgage lender during the pandemic, he now works as a bartender part-time and earns most of his money making social-media content, mostly nostalgic videos about the 1970s through 1990s. He likes having more time to spend with his family.

“This is basically my retirement plan,” he said. “I truly assume that I’ll continue to work to provide for my family as long as I need to.”

Even those who have benefited from the 401(k) system say it hasn’t been easy.

Scott Zibel, a 56-year-old in Leominster, Mass., started putting money in a 401(k) when he began working at a grocery store at 15. His father encouraged him to contribute. The account grew as he continued working at the store through college and became a manager. In his early 30s, he became an English teacher and expects to receive a pension after retiring.

When the stock market crashed in 2020 at the onset of the Covid pandemic, he and his wife pulled the money in his wife’s 401(k) out of the market and into a money-market fund. Now they have reinvested the money, but put a greater portion of it into bonds than before.

“I’m grateful for the 401(k), but there’s no guarantees as well,” he said, estimating his household retirement savings at a little over $1 million.

Zibel feels prepared for retirement but says he has to live frugally to save. He has driven the same car for 12 years and has avoided pricey expenses such as new carpeting for his 30-year-old home.

“My wife and I have done so much planning for the future with our money, it’s made living in the now difficult,” he said.

For some Gen Xers, the 2008 financial crisis was a hit that took years to recover from.

Around 2007, Darling “Diva” Moore was at the peak of her career as a managing partner at a title company in West Palm Beach, Fla. Then the housing market collapsed and her company went under. She couldn’t make rent on her apartment and had to crash with her significant other at the time, sometimes turning to sleeping on the beach or in the car.

“The Great Recession changed everything for us,” said Moore, who is 57. “After that, I don’t know how many Gen Xers trusted that system.”

After settling in Denver, more than two years went by before she landed a new job. She went back to school, getting an online bachelor’s degree in business management and master’s degree in human relations and organisation development. Now she is self-employed as a career counsellor.

As she is approaching her 60s, Moore is trying to locate money she contributed to various 401(k)s from jobs earlier in her career. Whenever she switched jobs, she didn’t rollover her balance to an IRA or new 401(k), so those accounts are scattered across plan providers. “In the ‘90s, they didn’t make it easy to find out where that money is,” she said.

She is also contending with student debt from a for-profit associates-degree program she completed in her 20s that has swelled to nearly $90,000 from around $27,000 due to interest.

More than a quarter of U.S. households led by Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 had education loans in 2022, compared with about 15% of baby boomers at the same age in 2007, according to Fed data.

Soaring tuition costs, sky-high rents and other inflationary pressures for Gen Z are also Gen X’s problem. Many Gen Xers have forked over tens of thousands of dollars for their children to attend college. Young people are also increasingly living with parents, or relying on them for financial support, well into adulthood .

Pamela Likos’s 21-year-old son lives at home with her in the suburbs of Madison, Wis., while another son and daughter are at college.

“My kids are still definitely not grown and flown,” Likos said.

Some Gen Xers are simultaneously caring for aging parents, who are living longer than previous generations.

Likos isn’t in that situation yet, but her stepmother, who has Alzheimer’s, and her father are in their 80s.

“I need my parents to hang on healthwise for another five to 10 years because we are not ready to help financially, really,” she said.

Likos, who is 54, was the first person in her family to go to college, but didn’t work for about two decades after she got married and became a stay-at-home mom. When she got divorced about seven years ago, she found herself with no savings of her own and no resume to apply for jobs. She got a license to work as an esthetician for a few years and now is remarried. From her divorce, Likos received about half of her ex-husband’s 401(k), which comprises most of her plan for retirement.

The youngest members of Gen X are in their mid-40s, offering more time to boost savings ahead of retirement. Tyler Bond, the research director at the National Institute on Retirement Security, wonders if there will be diverging retirement experiences between the older and younger ends of the cohort.

“The older Gen Xers simply may not have time,” he said.

Avery Nesbitt, a 44-year-old operations manager in the Atlanta area, isn’t waiting for retirement to go on nice vacations or buy a new car because he wants to enjoy them now—and he doesn’t expect to be able to save up a cushy nest egg for later in life. If the Covid pandemic taught him anything, it was that anything can happen.

He and his wife have contributed modestly to employer-sponsored retirement accounts but didn’t feel like they could afford to save more. They own a home, where they live with their two children. That makes up the bulk of their wealth. He said he has put more money into life-insurance policies than in retirement accounts.

“I fully expect to work until I die,” Nesbitt said. “It is what it is.”

SYDNEY—Australia’s unemployment rate rose in July to its highest level since late 2021 even as employment jumped by much more than expected over the month, with a record number of people participating in the labor market.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

The economy created a further 58,200 jobs over the month, with full-time employment rising by 60,500, the ABS said. The employment creation was about three times that expected by economists.

The apparent mismatch in the data is explained by a rise in the labour market participation rate to a record high 67.1% in July from 66.9% in June.

Overall, the data suggests the job market remains tight, which will feed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s fears about the availability of labor, wage pressures and sticky core inflation over the coming quarters.

RBA Gov. Michele Bullock ruled out an interest-rate cut over the next six months citing concerns that inflation remains stubbornly high, while firms are reporting the job market is still tight.

The employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.1 percentage point to 64.3%, indicating employment growth was faster than population growth, the ABS said.

“Although the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point in each of the past two months, the record high participation rate and near record high employment-to-population ratio show that there continues to be a high number of people in jobs, and looking for and finding jobs,” the ABS said in a statement.

The number of people unemployed increased to 637,000 in July, the highest it has been since November 2021, but it remains around 70,000 below its pre-pandemic level, ABS added.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked rose by 0.4%, in line with the 0.4% increase in employment, the ABS said.