Parisian Hôtel Particulier Revamped Into Dream Home

Alexandre de Betak, the 52-year-old designer behind some of the most viral fashion shows of the past 25 years, has staged runway spectacles in audacious locales. Through his Bureau Betak creative agency, he’s conceptualised shows from Dior runways in Moscow’s Red Square and under an 18-metre mountain of blue delphiniums custom built in the courtyard of the Louvre to a blue diamond catwalk inserted for Tiffany into Beijing’s Forbidden City.

After a day at the office conjuring another rapidly vanishing show for a client, de Betak wants nothing more than to design space for his family’s personal use. “I’ve spent my life designing for others,” he says, “so in a way designing for us and designing permanent homes is incredibly relaxing, just by the nature of being the same yet the opposite of what I do every day.”

Alexandre, Sofía and Sakura de Betak in a Pierre Augustin Rose chair in their Paris home.

By the time he finished his last home design project in 2016, a playful loft in downtown New York with a stripper pole in a hidden party room, he was already at work on a new place to live, a fixer-upper across the Atlantic on the Left Bank of the Seine.

Four years ago, he began to shift his centre

\of gravity to Paris, returning to the city he grew up in after more than two decades based primarily in New York. (Bureau Betak has offices in both cities, along with Shanghai and Los Angeles.) Alex arrived with his partner in life, his pregnant wife, Sofía, the 36-year-old Argentine creative director, graphic designer and boho-chic style influencer known to her friends and 350,000-plus Instagram followers as Chufy (a childhood nickname). They spent their first 18 months in the city glamping indoors, squatting, essentially, in the beautiful ruin that would become their new home, former offices stripped to the bone—four separate units on three floors of a 17th-century hôtel particulier. “We were sleeping with six hot-water bottles,” says Sofía. “We would get pieces of ceiling just falling on us, holes in the wall.” Adds Alex: “We were cooking in the fireplace, heating by the fireplace. It was very, very fun.”

The basement nightclub space, which Alex calls Betak Clandestino, with a cherry moon on the night-sky mural, inspired both by his daughter’s name and by the soundtrack to the Prince film.

While inhabiting the space, Alex mapped out plans for what it might soon become, imagining the sculptural staircase, in white gesso, that would wind down through three floors, the secret party room—all of his homes have one—he’d excavate in the basement. “I have to say it was great to design it from the inside,” he says. After Airbnb-hopping during the two years of construction, early last year, Alex, Sofía and their toddler daughter, Sakura, finally moved into the finished space.

Though Alex and Sofía were on the road constantly pre-pandemic, individually and as a unit, they filled their free time—there was rarely much of it—travelling for pleasure, too. Sofía grew up travelling—her mother ran a high-end travel agency in Buenos Aires. The couple named Sakura for the cherry blossoms that were blooming on a trip to Kyoto when they found out they were expecting a girl.

They were just back from a family vacation in Myanmar, and recently moved into their new home, when the first pandemic lockdowns started in autumn of last year. Alex was bedridden in those first uncertain weeks. He thinks it was Covid-19, though reliable tests were hard to come by back then. “I mean, we were lucky—we were in luxury confinement,” says Sofía, “but most people had it really, really tough.”

After spring Fashion Week in Paris wrapped on March 4, Bureau Betak saw its planned roster of shows heading into the summer vanish overnight. “Everything got cancelled,” says Alex.

The open custom kitchen and a spiral staircase in white gesso plaster that passes through three floors.

Sofía launched Chufy, her eponymous line of travel-themed women’s clothing, in 2017, each collection inspired by a new destination, from the Pampas of Argentina to the savannas of Kenya. At the start of the pandemic, her business also came to a halt as the factory in India producing her flouncy blouses and flowy dresses shuttered.

Feeling restless stuck at home, she organized a charity auction online for Doctors Without Borders in April of last year, enlisting her friends to donate objects, expertise and experiences: a private polo class from Nacho Figueras, an online consulting session with Colette founder Sarah Andelman, a signed tennis racket from Maria Sharapova. Getting the auction going “kind of helped me get out of the darker cloud,” she says.

Alex is often dubbed the Fellini of fashion. In a good year, when his business hasn’t been crippled by a global pandemic, Bureau Betak might stage as many as 100 productions, working with young designers and veterans, avant-garde and legacy brands, on blowout presentations and smaller, more cerebral shows. “He’s always thinking about how to make it feel special; it doesn’t always mean it has to be the biggest and the brashest…not just the big extravaganza, although he is great at doing that; you could also have an intimate show,” says Michael Kors, one of Alex’s earliest clients, going back to the mid-’90s when he first set up shop in New York.

A Roman-inspired marble antique bathtub and hanging light from the Paul Bert Serpette flea market and grey marble wall.

In spring of last year, as his health and the weather in Paris both improved, Alex got back to work from a laptop by a window with a view of the Seine. He began to devise a path forward for clients eager to start showing again. “After a couple of months you realize it’s going to be there for a while,” Alex says of the pandemic. “That’s when we started to really rethink the calendars and the format and everything.”

He had plenty of tools in his arsenal ready to go, having launched a creative agency, Bureau Future, a few years earlier, focused on the digital future of the live fashion show. “I believed for a long time that in order to give those great, live, in-person shows a reason to continue to exist, we needed to augment them digitally better, to film them better, to design them with the filming in mind and to transmit that better when we stream them,” he says. “And then, obviously, with Covid we accelerated the process quite drastically.”

Though many designers decided not to show at all last year, a few signed on for virtual shows, filmed with no audience. In July, French label Jacquemus, taking advantage of a moment of relaxed restrictions, opted to invite spectators to its live show outside Paris, shuttling 110 socially distanced VIPs to the winding catwalk Bureau Betak cut through a wheat field. “We bet together that we could do a show with a live audience,” says Alex. “We were very lucky. We caught a very small window.”

Double windows that open out onto the courtyard garden.

Filmed or live-streamed shows with no editors or influencers in attendance followed for Dior in Puglia, for Fendi in Milan and for Gabriela Hearst in the Brooklyn Navy Yard. As France began to open back up last summer, Sofía also got her business going again. From her home office in the apartment’s sun-drenched winter garden, with ivy climbing up lattice walls, she began sketching ideas for a new Chufy collection, inspired by her paternal grandparents’ Romanian heritage. “I just wanted to go through memories, old things from my grandparents; I travelled introspectively,” she says.

Evenings were spent at home, the family gathered around a custom-built kitchen island, Alex at the stove working through his rotation of pastas (“variations of vongole, bottarga and pesto,” as Sofía describes them). His two sons, Amaël, 20, and Aidyn, 17, from an earlier relationship with actress and model Audrey Marnay, would drop in from their mom’s place for a week at a time. At lunch there were picnics outside in the courtyard garden, chatting, socially distanced, with new neighbours in the hôtel particulier.

There were plenty of reminders, throughout the apartment, of Alex and Sofía’s old travelling life, mismatched accents—a pair of Moroccan candelabras here, a black lacquered Burmese pot there—brought home in suitcases or picked up online in hotel rooms in bleary-eyed bidding sprees.

“I can be in Shanghai or Tokyo and I’m jet-lagged and I’m online at an auction that’s in Italy or Eastern Europe and I’ll buy a piece from Japan,” says Alex. “I kind of see no boundaries.”

The winter garden, where Sofía set up her home office during the pandemic.

The building’s last tenants, offices of the museum of the Paris hospital system, stripped it of its historic character. As he planned his gut renovation, Alex imagined the space as it might have been when aristocrats lived there. He laid down new flooring to bring the place back in time, installing black-and-white pierre de Bourgogne stone on the ground floor, wooden parquet de Versailles upstairs above that. A golden hall of mirrors en route to his daughter’s bedroom brought a more theatrical 17th-century touch.

He filled the place with an eclectic mix of contemporary furniture and flea market antiques, pieces of Mario Bellini’s modular Camaleonda sofa across from a leopard-print chair from the 1940s. The seats in the living room, including his favourite Minotaure armchair from Pierre Augustin Rose by the window, were all reupholstered in the same rough-textured white fabric. Next to the master bedroom, antique panels on a Japanese theme, picked up at the Paul Bert Serpette market on the edge of Paris, became the closet doors inside a new dressing room. Much of the contents—mostly in monochrome black and white—were acquired with the new place in mind, after Alex auctioned off almost everything from his last Paris apartment back in 2018: 188 lots of kinetic art, toy robots and Star Wars memorabilia, among other collecting obsessions. “It was a brand-new time in our life,” he says. “I wanted to start from scratch.”

Though there’s some gravitas to the new space—“I wanted to do something very feminine and very romantic in a way and a lot softer than what I used to have,” says Alex—there’s still plenty of his signature whimsy throughout.

The basement nightclub space, hidden behind a mirror, features a night-sky mural inspired by 17th-century star maps with each family member’s zodiac constellation. (They’ve been watching movies there during the pandemic.) Upstairs, an archangel painting in the master bedroom opens into a projection TV screen. A bookcase in the library opens to reveal a secret passage down to the street. “We always have secret doors and secret escapes in every place we design,” he says. “Don’t ask me why.”

Alex lined the walls in his daughter’s bedroom in a classic Japanese motif, a collage of his own creation featuring bamboo, cherry blossom trees and kimono-clad figures that, upon close inspection, turn out to be miniature versions of her parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles and siblings. The French fabric firm Pierre Frey has added the design to their 2022 wallpaper collection, launching in January.

Sakura’s bedroom features a collection of plush toys by Japanese artist Takashi Murakami and walls covered in an original photomontage created by Alex.

By midsummer of last year, the de Betaks had traded the city for their vacation home by the sea, a villa on Mallorca, which was built and completed by Alex in 2010. And they spent a few weeks of their summer holiday visiting friends on the island of Panarea, north of Sicily. Over an alfresco meal there, Sofía came up with an idea for another Chufy collection, a collaboration with André Saraiva, the graffiti artist known as Mr. A, who sat beside her sketching doodles inspired by their time together in the Aeolian Islands. “I [drew] a little volcano, a pasta—Alex is the king of the pasta with bottarga, so I did a pasta with bottarga—did all those little things we enjoyed during our summer,” says Saraiva, who was one of three best men at Alex and Sofía’s weeklong wedding in Patagonia in 2014. This summer Chufy debuts a capsule collection of caftan dresses featuring those Mr. A sketches on Sofía’s Italian island–inspired prints.

Saraiva, one of Alex’s oldest friends, says he has been to every home he’s designed. “I’m an expert on Betak design,” he says. “[Alex] has got a great sense of décor and space that designers have, but he has something that I really appreciate…there are always details that come from playing around, not everything is serious. He’s a big fan of Star Wars. There’s always little details that remind me of the Star Wars saga—in the new place, the blacks, the whites, the round stairs.”

Mismatched curiosities from around the world, including a Swedish red vase, a couple of brass Italian vases and an African mask.

Alex, who has no formal design training, was just 17 and still finishing high school when he fell into fashion in 1986. That year, on a family trip to Spain, he met a young clothing designer named Sybilla Sorondo who’d been building a cult following from her atelier in Madrid. Taken by her edgy work and the freewheeling scene around her, and by the creative spirit of La Movida that gripped Madrid in the post-Franco years, he found himself drawn to the city and into Sorondo’s orbit.

“At that time my workshop was a place where people would hang out; there was lots of movement,” recalls Sorondo. “All of a sudden [Alex] was the kid who was always there—‘Oh, he’s still here.’ ”

Eventually, Alex got a few fashion editors in Paris to take a look at Sorondo’s pleated frocks. “And that’s how my international expansion started,” she says. He became her official press agent and art director while still studying for his baccalaureate exam. They travelled to Tokyo and Milan together. And after graduation he launched Bureau Betak, still ill-defined as an enterprise, out of a home office, with Sorondo’s eponymous line, Sybilla, as its first official client. He added a Japanese modelling agency, L’Homme et La Femme, to his roster, scouting talent for them in Paris and also hunting for classic cars for the agency’s owner. “There was no name to a lot of what I was doing back then,” he says. The big bash Alex organized for the launch of Sorondo’s Paris boutique in 1991, featuring jugglers, acrobats and a live orchestra along with models showcasing the clothes, set the stage for his future fashion show work.

The wall heading down to the basement features a collage of family snapshots, capturing travel memories.

Shortly afterward Sorondo took a long break from the fashion world to focus on raising a family. Alex decided to move to New York.

With his first clients there, he started to challenge the status quo. In an early show under the tents at Bryant Park he suspended designer John Bartlett in a hammock above the catwalk, instead of dangling the brand logo as everyone else did. “Many creative decisions came to me spontaneously like that,” says Alex.

Very quickly he began to organize shows in offbeat locales, ramping up the spectacle in the process. His first collaboration with Kors, staged in a cavernous loft space in SoHo, featured a travel theme. “We had a train that took models through the Swiss Alps, we had a helicopter landing,” recalls Kors. “It was a really interesting way to present it, to get the feeling behind the collection, rather than doing the traditional fashion show.”

“I mean, nothing is impossible,” says Laura Mulleavy of Rodarte, who staged her first show with Bureau Betak just as her and her sister Kate’s label took off in 2007, of de Betak’s approach. “You can have an idea and then you translate it into a live theatrical experience.”

Many of Alex’s working relationships with designers have endured for decades, following the careers of John Galliano, Raf Simons and Kors, among others. In April Kors unveiled his 40th-anniversary show online, a filmed tribute to Broadway, directed by Alex, in New York’s theatre district. “I try to always have very long and deep relationships,” he says.

In Alex and Sofía’s bedroom, 17th-century Italian wood panels from Pierre Bénard surround an oak fireplace from the same period.

In the late ’90s, as Alex’s career was taking off in New York, in Buenos Aires his future wife, Sofía Sanchez Barrenechea, was getting an early start in the fashion world. In 1999, when she was 14 years old, Sofía was approached by a modelling scout while in church for her confirmation. Cast in a national campaign for John L. Cook, a big Argentine clothing brand, she was soon on billboards and shopping bags across the country.

“My picture was everywhere,” she says. “It was quite a shock—I mean, an ego boost but also very hard to handle.”

Sofía went on to study graphic design at the University of Palermo in Buenos Aires before moving to New York on an IMG Models visa in 2008. In between the occasional shoot, she pursued a career in design, working with beauty clients at branding agency Lloyd & Co. Sofía was back in Buenos Aires for the winter holidays in 2009 when Alex showed up at her family home—invited by her older sister, Lucia, a fashion journalist he knew from Paris. Though Alex’s estranged father, whom he didn’t grow up with, is from Argentina, this was his first time in the country.

“He spent Christmas with my family even before we started dating,” says Sofía. “I think first he liked the family and there was only one sister single, and it was lucky me.” They began seeing each other back in New York and were married five years later, surrounded by fashion royalty, the bride in Valentino couture, custom-embroidered in crystal and pearls.

Lacquered panels, dating from the 1920s, that Alex transformed into custom closet doors.

This past March, as Paris prepared to go on lockdown again, Alex got his first AstraZeneca shot. Despite the slow vaccine rollout and surging virus cases in Europe, tentative plans were underway for bringing live audiences back to runway shows.

“Until the last minute everything I’m designing and everything I’m thinking of now has a plan B, with no audience, of course,” he says.

Even when the world finally opens back up, Alex would prefer that fashion didn’t fully return to its pre-pandemic ways. Early last year, just weeks before international borders began closing, Bureau Betak announced a new sustainability pledge, “Ten Commandments” intended to transform the business from the inside, vowing to reuse materials, sort and recycle, reduce nonessential flying and minimize fossil-fuel use.

“I’ve dedicated most of my life to ephemeral events that spend a lot of energy, a lot of carbon and a lot of money for a very short time and for, I hate to say, a useless topic, which is helping luxury brands sell more product,” says Alex. “So, considering all of this, it’s been forever that I’ve wanted to try to use what I can, which is basically the influence we have over our clients and their brands…to create a strong sustainability program within Bureau Betak and use it as a platform.”

And after a year mostly confined to his new Paris apartment, Alex is already thinking about his family’s next permanent home-design project—maybe a country house outside the city or a vacation spot in Patagonia. “I already have a design in mind for Patagonia,” he says.

 

Reprinted by permission of WSJ. Magazine. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 29, 2021

Inflation Confidence

OPINION

The Government — particularly Josh Frydenberg — is breathing a sigh of relief as the most recent positive economic data demonstrates a strong Australian economy. 

Inflation is now both locally and internationally the hottest and most controversial economic topic for the year. Put simply, it’s because the entire global economic recovery hinges on the ability of central banks to keep interest rates low for an extended period in order to give the global economy the push it needs towards a full recovery. 

The most recent Australian inflation figures have come in lower than anticipated at 1.1% per annum. This re-affirms the RBA’s carefully articulated argument about maintaining low interest rates until the economy reaches a level of full employment. Unemployment is now down to 5.6%, consumer spending is racing back to pre-Covid-19 levels, and trade figures are strong due to high iron ore prices — all of which contributed to a $30b windfall in the current budget figures.

It seems the ‘Achilles’ heel’ to all this good news is inflation uncertainty.

The topic of inflation has not been part of our vocabulary since the era when Paul Keating was treasurer in the 1980s and Australia experienced “the recession we had to have”. 

An analogy that best describes the importance of inflation is that like watering a plant, both too little or too much water may kill it. And so it is the right balance of low constant inflation increases business profits over the long term — increasing business productivity. Such strategy helps to reduce unemployment, increases tax revenue and naturally erodes the real value of debt. 

Too much inflation can have the opposite impact. The most powerful tool left to control high levels of inflation is the RBA’s use of contractionary monetary policy (increasing interest rates). However, this is not without risk — done prematurely, it will have a negative price impact on assets such as shares and property, further stunting economic growth and possibly spiralling the economy into a recession. 

Governments and central banks will need to put on a brave face and maintain confidence in their ability to steer the global economies through these tricky times. A loss of confidence from consumers and businesses is enough of a catalyst for a self-fulfilling prophecy for inflation issues to emerge unfavourably.

This is, in itself, a very thought-provoking concept as inflation is not purely driven by economic data and activity. It is also driven by the future expectation of businesses and workers, which drive businesses to make decisions such as increasing prices on goods and services and employees hitting up bosses for a pay rise.

Covid-19 has completely skewed economic data

Worth contemplating when attempting to interpret economic data is the “base effect”. Covid-19 forced the economy to a complete standstill, with all the major economic indicators falling off a cliff. Once the economy has been rebooted from a virtual standstill, the economic indicators are all being overly exacerbated during the economic recovery. As an example, we have had two quarters of GDP growth at 3%, however, our economy is still nowhere near the same levels as it was pre-Covid-19 despite the data implying otherwise. 

Be prepared that the next inflation figure will be an absolute whopper, as it will reflect people returning to work and spending money on normal items such as childcare, entertainment and transport.

Paul Miron has more than 20 years experience in banking and commercial finance. After rising to senior positions for various Big Four banks, he started his own financial services business in 2004.

msqcapital.com

How to Avoid the 5 Worst Entryway-Decorating Mistakes

An entryway should feel like an appetizer on your way to the main course,” said New York City interior designer Laura Krey, one of the many designers who wonder at the neglect this key room often endures. Lacking an actual foyer is no excuse, said Lucie Ayres of 22 Interiors in Los Angeles. “You must figure out how to define an area that will welcome you and your guests.” Rugs, wallpaper and seats can delineate where walls don’t. We asked pros like Ms. Ayres for the irksome decorating gaffes they see most frequently, and for their seasoned advice on what to do instead.

The Family Dump

“Life happens—shoes, bags, jackets and umbrellas get tossed by the front door without a second thought,” said Amanda Khouri, co-founder of design firm Murray Khouri in Nashville. That includes the detritus that Covid has littered our lives with, such as masks and sanitisers. Kristen Peña, of San Francisco’s K Interiors, noted that while we must stay safe, “it’s important that your entry has a more-welcome, less-E.R. feel.”

Instead: Take stock of your habits and clutter and you’ll be able to designate a place for everything without sacrificing beauty, said Ms. Khouri. Are your ever-present water bottle and yoga mat adding visual noise? Tuck them in large fat-weave baskets placed beneath a console or a closed storage piece such as an antique sideboard. To corral Covid supplies, said Ms. Peña, add a good-looking lift-top box to the entry table. Another solution, care of New Orleans designer Maureen Stevens: Ikea’s Hemnes shoe cabinet, easily made more stylish by changing the hardware, or adding colour and pattern with stencil or even wallpaper.

Fugly Rugs

One of the best ways to ruin the view of the beautiful room beyond your entry is “a huge, industrial-strength, waterproof doormat that would look more suitable on a loading dock,” said Carey Karlan, of Last Detail Interiors in Darien, Conn. Puny rugs don’t work either, said Samantha Gallacher, co-founder of IG Workshop in Miami Beach. They look like sloppy floor mats and don’t stay in place, she said.

Instead: “Large rugs in the entry make the space feel like it is designed and intended to welcome guests,” said Dallas interior designer Chad Dorsey. Ms. Gallacher suggests that the rug make a statement as well as introduce the design concept and colours reflected throughout the home. Ms. Karlan favours an Oriental rug. “The thick wool is very absorbent, they clean well, they don’t show dirt and they come in all styles, from contemporary to classic,” she said.

WINNING ENTRY In a foyer in the Pittsburgh suburbs, designer Betsy Wentz refused to play it safe. For the cabinets, she chose vivid Benjamin Moore paint colours that were then layered in lacquer by National Woodwork in Lawrence, Penn. PHOTO: CARMEL BRANTLEY

Puny Lights

Foyers with overly diminutive lights aggrieve Philadelphia designer Melinda Kelson O’Connor. “The entry is not the place for ambiguity or mystery. The space should make a statement.” Another hazard, New York-based Kati Curtis pointed out: inappropriately sized fixtures that get lost volumetrically in the space and create a basketball-court ambience.

Instead: Opt for a striking chandelier and illuminate artwork with perimeter-wall lighting, Ms. O’Connor suggested. “Even a foyer with a low ceiling can have a large, beautiful flush-mount fixture.” Bigger is better, especially in a vaulted space. “Use a fixture that visually fills up the height, adds interest and makes your entry feel more welcoming and less lofty and intimidating,” Ms. Curtis advised.

Entryway as Afterthought

Given that it’s the first—and sometimes only—space guests see, it’s remarkable that the foyer is treated like the home’s neglected stepchild. “It is the place where brownies are dropped off and play dates are exchanged,” said Sewickley, Penn., designer Betsy Wentz. Still, homeowners frequently leave foyers sparse and undecorated, which feels lonely and off-putting, said Los Angeles designer Lindsay Pennington.

Instead: Ms. Pennington recommends hanging an impressive mirror to expand the space and choosing a chest over a console if you have room. “Drawers make life easier,” she said. Eilyn Jimnez, founder of Miami’s Sire Design, suggested including vintage pieces, found items and family heirlooms in a curated way. “These items are a great way to tell the story of your home.”

Overdoing the Wow

On the other hand, don’t mistake your foyer for a receiving room at the Vatican. It’s too much if you’ve added treatments to floors, walls and ceiling and crammed in bold lighting and furniture, said San Francisco designer Lindsay Anyon Brier. “The entry should be the opening paragraph of the home. It should begin to introduce the plot but not give everything away.”

Instead: One strong design idea can be enough, said Tal Schori, partner at Brooklyn’s GRT Architects. He welcomed both warmth and function into the 3-foot-by-5-foot entry of a narrow townhouse by hanging unique, muted ombré wallpaper, screwing in a glass sconce and installing three brass hooks. Ms. Brier likes to highlight a sole piece of art or a light fixture that is sculptural by day and becomes a glowing focal point in the evening. “Make it spectacular but in a less-is-more way,” said Ms. Brier.

ODD ARRIVALS

The funniest foyers designers have stepped into

ILLUSTRATION: GUY SHIELD

I walked into a foyer and noticed only the enormous, completely-out-of-scale lantern, hung way too low, and a complete lack of furniture to balance it. The embodiment of inhospitality, the room offered nowhere to drop your purse, your key or mail and certainly no spot to sit.” —Rebekah Zaveloff, co-founder and director of Kitchen Lab Interiors, Chicago

Suffice it to say a dearly departed taxidermy dog is best left to a more private part of the residence.” —Fernando Wong, landscape and interior designer, Palm Beach, Fla.

An entryway doubled as a laundry depot. It’s so awkward to see someone’s dirty underwear before shaking their hand, and it’s always a mistake to leave your undergarments by the front door.” —Isabel Ladd, designer, Lexington, Ky.

I had a client who was obsessed with Star Wars. He had a curio cabinet full of Star Wars memorabilia, as well as a life-size cutout of Princess Leia, in his entryway.” —Mary Patton, designer, Houston

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 28, 2021.

Australia Prepares for a Post-Pandemic Population Boom

Australia’s international borders were snapped shut with the arrival of Covid-19 in March 2020, and more than a year later our island nation is still closed to new arrivals. As a result, the country, which relies heavily on overseas migration to boost its economy and housing market, has experienced its first negative population growth in more than a century.

One year into the pandemic, Australia’s migrant stock was 300,000 people fewer than it would have been, coupled by a net migration decline of 97,000 people, according to Federal budget estimates.

By 2030, the Australian government estimates the country will be “missing” 1 million new people. As of June 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded that there were more than 7.6 million migrants living in Australia, with 29.8% of the total population born in another country. England was the largest group of overseas-born migrants at 980,400, followed by those born in India at 721,000 and then Chinese migrants third at 650,600.

The hit to Australia’s population growth rate is already taking its toll on some parts of the property market, particularly inner city apartments. However, when borders do reopen, property and population experts predict that Australia’s successful and vigilant handling of the pandemic—Victoria instated Thursday a weeklong statewide lockdown in response to a cluster of only two-dozen or so cases—and its rebounding economy will attract the attention of cashed-up migrants and foreigners seeking out shrewd investments.

Understanding the Migration Equation

In the Federal Budget announced earlier this month, the government hinted at a “gradual return” to temporary or permanent migration, but no sooner than mid-2022. As a result, Australia’s population is predicted to be about 25.88 million by the end of next year.

Tim Lawless, head of research for property data firm CoreLogic, said the long-term impact of this blow to Australia’s population growth will be multilayered.

“If the Treasury forecasts are right, this means the rate of population growth will be the lowest since 1917. This will be disruptive to housing demand. However, the impact will not be evenly spread,” he explained.

“We need to consider the composition of housing demand. In the last few years at least, about 70% of migration has been temporary; it’s been students and visitors. And about 30% have been permanent migrants,” he continued. “Temporary migrants will usually rent, and even permanent arrivals typically rent before they buy anyway, so there’s always been a bit of a lag.”

As a result, inner city vacancy rates soared and rents dropped, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where most new arrivals initially land. A return of both temporary and permanent migrants would create an immediate demand throughout metropolitan rental markets and provide opportunities for investors coming back into the market.

 

Savvy Investors Will Be Ready for Open Borders

Simon Keustenmacher, social demographer and co-founder of Melbourne-based demographic advisory firm The Demographics Group, said Australia’s big city mayors and property developers are keen to reignite inner cities post-pandemic.

“The inner city rental market of relatively small dwellings—one or two bedroom apartments—has suffered because there are no new arrivals or international students. The more you can get to come, the more everyone will get out of it because they just invigorate these areas and put capital back into the economy,” he said.

Although no one knows yet how many temporary and permanent migrants Australia will welcome, or when, Mr. Keustenmacher is sure housing demand will skyrocket when they do.

“People will want to come to Australia at a much higher rate than we will take people in, I’m certain,” he said, adding that it’s especially true of the top end of the income spectrum. “More and more migrants will want to come to Australia because they’re thinking, ‘Where can I have the best lifestyle?’”

Mr. Keustenmacher said he envisaged Australia’s skilled migration list becoming shorter and more specific. Those highly skilled, well-paid workers who do arrive in Australia will have an additional challenge when seeking a home as they will be in direct competition with another huge slice of the population.

“Plenty of those high-income earners arriving in Australia will be in the family stage of their lifecycle so they’ll be competing for the most sought after property—three- and four-bedroom houses. Demographically speaking, that’s the hottest market to be in because Australia’s millennials, who are also in the family stage of life, are our biggest generation right now,” he explained.

“Therefore, if people buy purely for investment they should buy whatever property is deemed to be rare, because prices will be driven up,” he said.

 

Things Could Go From Good, to Even Better

Despite unprecedented negative population growth, Australia’s dwelling values did not suffer throughout the second half of 2020 and into the first quarter of 2021. On the contrary, in March alone, CoreLogic’s national home value index recorded a 2.8% increase, the fastest pace of monthly growth in 32 years.

John McGrath, founder of Australia-wide realtor group McGrath Real Estate, said when new arrivals return, housing demand is likely to increase even further.

“Whilst the current surge in local demand and property values will no doubt plateau in the near future as the inevitable buyer fatigue calms things down, international borders opening up will be the next catalyst for price growth,” he said.

During the height of the pandemic in mid-2020, real estate agents across Australia noted a sharp uptick in inquiry from Australians living overseas hoping to return home, or at least invest on home soil.

“We have already sold a number of properties to expats sight unseen off the internet over the past 12 months, but this will escalate rapidly as borders open,” he said.

To date, a wave of international interest in Australia’s luxury properties close to beaches or in rural settings has put upward price pressure on lifestyle locations, and Mr. McGrath said he believes that will inevitably create a trickle-down effect.

“While much of the demand will find its way to higher priced homes upward of $10 million , I expect we will see buying across all price ranges as people seek to migrate to Australia,” he said. “Traditionally, the vast majority of these immigrants investing into Australia have focused on Sydney and Melbourne, but due to lifestyle and workplace changes post-COVID we should see a wider spread of investment including many regional lifestyle areas.”

Waves, Wine and Wool

Three types of lifestyle markets have been highly sought after since the pandemic forced individuals to reconsider their priorities and work-life balance. Beach locations, wine regions and rural estates have all been hot property.

“Some of the really high-profile lifestyle markets would probably be on the radar for returning expats, or foreign migrants,” Mr. Lawless said. “If we do see more migrants arriving, or expats returning, a lot of them will be looking at not just Sydney or Melbourne, but also the likes of Byron Bay, Noosa or the Mornington Peninsula.”

A shift to remote working has meant these areas, some of which are hundreds of miles from employment hubs in the cities, are no longer disadvantaged by long commute times.

 

People Can’t Travel to Australia, but Money Can

The fact that international borders are closed isn’t holding back keen foreign investors who are playing the long property game.

“They don’t even need to move to Australia right now. Currency and capital can still flow across the border,” Mr. Lawless said.

“Expats or potentially foreign buyers would be looking at Australian real estate because it’s a pretty good investment at the moment. It’s on a strong capital gain trajectory and considering where mortgage rates are, it’s also relatively high yielding,” he explained.

Australian expats can buy established property, though foreign investors or potential migrants are restricted to purchasing new properties or buying land with the purpose of building a home, according to Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board guidelines.

“There is limited availability for newly built apartments in some areas as construction is starting to wind down, but if you looked around Sydney and Melbourne, there are still plenty of apartments underway,” he said.

“We’ll see a few years down the track, considering how Australia has managed Covid-19 as well as just the sheer liveability of Australia, that this is going to be a very popular place. If I wasn’t in Australia I’d certainly want to be, put it that way,” Mr. Lawless said.

Reprinted by permission of Mansion Global. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 30, 2021

National Clearance Rates Lift Despite Melbourne Lockdown

The past five weekends have seen unprecedented auction numbers flood the market.

With the influx of listings seeing major capitals Sydney and Melbourne trending downwards, national listing numbers rebounded on Saturday, May 29, with the national average on Saturday increasing to 82.2% – marginally higher than the previous Saturday’s 82.0%.

This comes as 2505 auction reported – higher than the previous weekend’s 2333 and just below the May monthly record of 2563 set on May 8.

Of note, lockdown measures in Melbourne hardly impacted the market with the city reporting a clearance rate of 76.5%, just below the 76.9% recorded the previous weekend. Despite being the lowest result for the year so far, the figures remain impressive when considering the restrictions imposed.

Reporting 1272 auctions on Saturday, well ahead of the 1117 conducted the previous weekend, Melbourne’s median price for houses sold at auction on the weekend was $987,500 – just below the $995,500 recorded over the previous weekend.

Sydney was at the heart of the strong national figures with a clearance rate of 82.2% clearance rate – higher than the 81.5% recorded the previous weekend and the first lift in rates in five consecutive weekends.

A total of 981 Sydney auctions were reported on Saturday, higher than the previous weekend’s 949. This brings Harbour City’s total to a record-breaking 4868 weekend auctions over May, with each Saturday registering over 900 listings.

Sydney recorded a median price of $1,605,000 for houses sold at auction at the weekend, just below the $1,620,000 reported over the previous Saturday but 27.9% higher than the $1,255,000 recorded over the same weekend last year.

Data powered by Dr. Andrew Wilson of My Housing Market.

 

Prestige Property: 7 Hillside Avenue, Vaucluse, NSW

Set in a truly enviable setting, this hillside pile in Sydney’s blue-ribbon suburb Vaucluse arrives with sweeping vistas of the eastern suburbs and harbour.

Designed by Howard Tanner of DKT architects in the early ’00s, the nearly 2000sqm site sees a 7-bedroom, 7-bathroom, 10-car parking mansion offering unadulterated luxury at every turn.

The home boasts natural stone flooring and timber underfoot, with soaring ceilings and extensive use of glass used to form its character.

Making the most of the home’s lofty location, the design maximises the views and embraces its many courtyards and manicured gardens designed by Paul Bangay.

A grand entry foyer welcomes one into the home, here the double0heigh ceiling is warped in glass while showcasing the grand two-way staircase.

All the living areas are found on the ground floor. Here, the formal dining is elegance exemplified with an ambient gas fireplace and French doors to the gardens.

Also on this level is the kitchen. Built for entertainers, it features a Corian benchtop, enormous island bench, an array of appliances including an eight burner Barazza cooktop. A butlers’ pantry is also found here.

Four spacious bedrooms alongside a family room comprise the upper level. The lavish master boasts a glamorous ensuite – replete with marble – and freestanding bath, ‘his’ and ‘hers’ walk-in-robes, the latter with more breathtaking views.

Downstairs, the basement sees a 10-car garage – perfect for the avid car collector – with an expansive cellar.

Elsewhere the home features a gym on the ground floor, well-appointed office and a separate guest house complete with its own kitchenette, living and bathroom.

Outside is where the home really shines, with a poolside terrace making it easy to lounge and enjoy the surrounds. Here, a powder room is accessible through the terrace and is adjoined by a Wisteria clad arbour.

The home is found in an exclusive cul-de-sac setting and is close to Kincoppal Rose Bay School, Hermitage Foreshore reserve and within walking distance of Rose Bay’s vibrant village centre.

The property is listed with Ken Jacobs (+61 407 190 152) of Christie’s International Real Estate. Price guide $38m; hillsideavenue.cve.io

Amazon Echo Buds 2 Review: A More Affordable Alternative to Apple’s AirPods Pro

I’ve worn earbuds more over this past year than any other. Between video calls and workouts at home, it felt like I was constantly putting some sort of implement in my ear.

Wireless earbuds have become essential—as has noise-cancelling technology to drown out the sounds of housemates. If you’re looking for a new pair, and are leery of dropping $399 on Apple’s shiny Pro ’pods, consider Amazon’s recent update to its Bluetooth buds.

The Echo Buds come in white or black. PHOTO: NICOLE NGUYEN/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The second-generation Echo Buds have active noise cancellation and built-in, hands-free Alexa. They’re smaller and sound better than the previous model—and they’re cheaper too.

The price—$120, or $140 with a wireless charging case—is why these headphones are worth your attention. Noise-cancelling earbuds from companies like Apple, Samsung and Bose all cost over $200. For significantly less, Amazon’s set offers similar audio quality and sound-blocking cancellation, with some trade-offs.

Active noise-cancelling doesn’t only seal out sound; it uses microphones to listen to ambient noise, then generates opposing sound waves to eradicate it. (If it helps, think of lining peaks with troughs, and troughs with peaks.) Good noise cancelling is difficult to do, especially in small, marble-size earbuds.

The AirPods Pro are my gold standard. They can’t isolate sound like bulkier over-ear headsets, but they successfully reduce daily din to levels that allow me to concentrate. During indoor and outdoor testing, I was surprised how well the Echo Buds 2 active noise cancellation held up in comparison—and for $130 less.

Outside, the grumble of passing trucks and the howling wind were imperceptible. Inside, I could hear my husband on his video call, until I put on music. Then, his voice faded into the background.

Noise-cancelling has to start with a secure seal. A range of ear-tip sizes (S, M, L, and XL) plus three pairs of optional ear-support wings are included in the box. You can test the fit in the Alexa app. A chime plays and rates the quality of your seal. With the default medium tips installed, my fit was “good.” Adding wings bumped my grade to “great.” My ears did feel sore after wearing the buds all day. Downsizing to small tips eliminated the pain, but broke the seal.

To ensure a good fit, the earbuds come with different-size round ear tips and optional ear-support wings. PHOTO: NICOLE NGUYEN/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

A snug fit also improves the audio experience. Modern pop such as Griff’s “Black Hole” and classics like The Clash’s “Should I Stay or Should I Go” sound great in the Echo Buds. The bass is particularly punchy, and the treble is clean. Competitors I’ve tested do produce more balanced audio, but at a much higher price.

The Echo Buds’ feature set is generally on par with competitors’. I got an industry-standard 5 hours and 15 minutes of battery life, with noise cancelling on and music playing. When you’re on the phone, an adjustable “sidetone” allows you to hear your own voice. There are programmable tap controls: a single tap can pause media, while a double-tap answers a call.

In other respects, the earbuds don’t meet the mark in the same way pricier buds do. For one, the important “pass through” mode—which allows you to hear outside sounds clearly while wearing the headphones—produces a noticeable, unnatural hissing.

You can only use Alexa hands-free while the buds are connected to a phone with the Alexa app. And while the assistant was fine at recognizing my voice, and telling me the weather outside or the date, Alexa had some trouble with other requests: “Set a timer for one minute” consistently yielded a “Sorry, I’m having trouble” response. An Amazon spokesman said the Echo Buds team wasn’t aware of the bug or how to fix it.

I often recommend that people get earbuds made by the same maker of their devices. They’re often optimised for connection reliability and pairing. But at this price, the new Echo Buds are a tempting proposition.

And if past Amazon deals are any indication, they’ll probably be even cheaper when Prime Day rolls around.

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 23, 2021.

Sports And Charity Top Pursuits of the Wealthy

The world’s richest population are most passionate about philanthropy and sports outside of their pursuit of wealth, according to a Wealth-X report Thursday.

More than one-fifth of the wealthiest individuals, those with a net worth of more than US$5 million, cites philanthropy and sports as their top interests, followed by public speaking, the outdoors, technology, education, and travel, according to the report, Interests, Passions and Hobbies of the Wealthy 2021.

Writing, politics, and art round up the top 10, according to Wealth-X, a global information and insight provider on the wealthy.

Interest in philanthropy increases in line with the wealth level. While 40.4% of those with a net worth of more US$100 million choose philanthropy as their top interest, 22% of those with a net worth between US$5 million and US$ 10 million do so, according to the report.

For the ultra-high-net-worth population, those with a net worth of more than US$30 million, there is a marked difference between women and men. Nearly 47.8% of ultra-wealthy women engage in philanthropy as their top pursuit, compared to 31.1% of men, making philanthropy the second-most popular interest among them, according to the report.

Millennial interests differ significantly from those of the general wealthy population, with the top 10 including travel, music, food, and animals, according to the report.

Reprinted by permission of Penta. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication:  May 27, 2021.

Big Oil’s Transition to Cleaner Energy Is Risky

Occidental Petroleum, one of America’s largest oil companies, plans to break ground next year on a new facility to pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and bury it—a novel solution to addressing global warming. Houston-based Oxy is already a leader in injecting CO2 extracted from gas and other natural sources into its oil reservoirs to improve pumping. It also plans to start piping in CO2 emitted by factories. But its new carbon-capture project in the Permian Basin is especially ambitious, aiming to pull one million tons of CO2 out of the air each year. Initially Oxy will use the gas in its own oil fields. Eventually, other companies will pay the oil producer to bury it in the ground to offset their own emissions.

“It’s going to be a huge industry,” says Vicki Hollub, Oxy’s CEO, who forecasts that carbon capture’s contribution to earnings and cash flow could approach that of the oil and gas business in 20 years. Four more Oxy carbon-capture plants will follow in the next few years. Occidental Petroleum (ticker: OXY) will receive tax credits for the carbon it extracts, and tax incentives will also encourage potential customers to use its carbon-capture service, much as they have encouraged customers to use solar power. “The incentives will spur investment in the space, and bridge the gap until the uneconomic asset becomes economic,” predicts Kyle Seipert, a consultant at Alvarez & Marsal who specializes in energy mergers and acquisitions.

One new investor in the project is United Airlines (UAL), and no wonder: Global aviation emits about a billion tons of CO2 annually. Eventually, Hollub sees Oxy morphing into “a carbon-management company, where we’re not only using the oil and gas business to generate value for shareholders, but also helping others achieve their goals.”

As Oxy’s example suggests, Big Oil is in transition. The world is moving to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons amid growing anxiety about environmental damage. Yes, fossil fuels will remain a major driver of cash flows for the global energy industry for many years, even decades. But many companies will supplement their oil and gas businesses with substantial investments in renewable energy, carbon capture, and other technologies that help to speed the transition away from oil. The road ahead will be bumpy, with plenty of risks. Yet the transformation could also bring enormous opportunities for the companies involved, and their investors.

So far, the European and U.S. oil majors have followed different paths toward the future. BP (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) have unveiled ambitious plans to reduce oil output and expand their renewable and low-carbon businesses, while curtailing emissions. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), on the other hand, have announced plans to cut emissions but have been clear that they won’t get involved in large-scale solar or wind production, betting instead that the runway for oil remains long. The two U.S. giants reportedly discussed a megamerger last year to improve operating efficiencies during the industry’s pandemic-fueled downturn and to prepare for an uncertain future.

Says Daniel Yergin, the veteran oil analyst and vice chairman of IHS Markit: “You’re seeing the biggest difference in strategies among major oils that we’ve had in decades.”

Investors seem sceptical of the Europeans’ plans. The Stoxx Europe 600 Oil & Gas index is up more than 35% in the past 12 months and about 9% this year, trailing gains of 62% and 47%, respectively, in the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry index. The main thing that has mattered, it seems, is dividend preservation. While Exxon and Chevron maintained their payouts during the Covid pandemic, many other oil companies pruned theirs. BP halved its quarterly dividend to 5.25 cents a share last August, its first cut in 10 years, and Shell slashed its payout in April 2020 by 66%, its first reduction since World War II.

“They’ve lost their old audience and have yet to find a new one,” says Erik Mielke, global head of corporate research at Wood MacKenzie, a global energy consultancy.

Exxon sports a current yield of 5.9% and Chevron, 5.1%, while BP now yields 4.8% and Shell, 3.5%.

All four companies, and the rest of the oil patch, have been helped in the past year by a sharp rebound in crude. The price of oil sank last spring as the global economy retrenched, causing demand to crater; West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark crude, briefly turned negative as storage capacity dried up. Today, WTI fetches $62 a barrel, up about 30% on the year. The rally has restored energy companies to profitability after last year’s huge losses. Soon, demand could return to 2019 levels, and even higher prices could be in store.

Energy is the S&P 500’s best-performing sector this year, up 36%, well ahead of the No. 2-ranked financials’ 27% gain and the index’s rise around 10%. But focusing on near-term returns obscures the bigger picture: Energy stocks have been losing favor with investors for years. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production exchange-traded fund (XOP) is trading 65% below its level of 10 years ago, and energy stocks now represent just 2.7% of the S&P.

In comparison, shares of NextEra Energy (NEE), America’s largest generator of wind and solar power, are up sevenfold in the past decade, while electric-vehicle manufacturer Tesla (TSLA), the ultimate green play, has soared 17,000% since its 2010 IPO.

Mighty Exxon, meanwhile, was ejected last August from the Dow Jones Industrial Average after a tenure stretching back, via its predecessors, to 1928. The company will face a challenge at its annual meeting on May 26 from activist investment fund Engine No. 1 to refresh its board with directors more familiar with the carbon transition, such as the former CEO of Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY), one of the world’s largest suppliers of wind turbines. Both Glass Lewis and ISS, prominent proxy advisors, have recommended voting for some of Engine No. 1’s nominees.

Investors’ concerns about Big Oil aren’t hard to understand. Governments, companies, and environmental activists around the world are pushing to slash greenhouse gas emissions, a byproduct of burning hydrocarbons. The Biden administration restored the U.S. to the Paris Agreement to limit global warming and has vowed to cut U.S. emissions to net zero by 2050. This month, the International Energy Agency said a halt to new oil and gas projects is necessary for the world to achieve the agreement’s goal of net-zero emissions by that year.

S&P Global put the debt of a swath of oil and gas producers on CreditWatch earlier in 2021, partly due to concerns about competition from renewable energy, reflecting its credit analysts’ view that hydrocarbon prices would be under pressure for many years.

Lenders are also moving to decarbonise their portfolios. J.P. Morgan, which has arranged more loans to, and bond sales for, Big Oil than any other U.S. bank, recently said it would align its lending with the Paris Agreement and push to decarbonize its lending portfolios by helping clients reduce emissions and pursue solutions such as business diversification. This coincides with actions from major investors such as Vanguard Group, State Street (STT), and BlackRock (BLK), all of which have pledged to support the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 or sooner.

“Once banks understand that demand won’t grow to the sky, oil flips from an appreciating asset to a depreciating asset,” says Andrew Logan, senior director of oil and gas at Ceres, a shareholder advocacy organization.

 

So, what lies ahead for the industry, and investors? Dirty and unpopular though fossil fuels may be, they remain critical to the world’s energy transition, just as oil companies remain a part of many investment indexes. For those willing to bet on an energy transition, the European majors look particularly compelling, both because of their environmentally friendly initiatives and the sharp discounts their stocks fetch relative to their U.S. counterparts. The European majors trade for about 10 times next year’s expected earnings, versus 17.6 times for their American rivals. In the U.S., ConocoPhillips (COP) also looks like a winner, based on its focused spending and emphasis on returning capital to shareholders.

Among the European leaders, BP believes global oil demand could fall by 10% in the current decade. The company plans to cut its own oil and gas production by 40% by 2030, and to invest $5 billion in wind, solar, and biopower, using the cash flow from its legacy businesses to fuel its low-carbon endeavors. Royal Dutch Shell wants to bolster clean-energy trading, sell electricity to consumers, and build electric-vehicle charging stations as it aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. This month, Shell became the first oil major to put its climate strategy to an advisory vote. Nearly 89% of shareholders approved its plan.

J.P. Morgan analysts estimate that European oil companies will devote 15% of their capital spending to new energy over the current decade, up from around 5% two to three years ago. Yet investors have been wary, despite the recent shareholder vote. Since Shell announced its transition plan on Feb. 11, its shares have risen about 6%, while Chevron is up 15% in the same span. “Paradoxically, even though Shell and BP and Total [TOT] may be investing in renewables, which arguably have a less risky future, their ability to execute is more questionable,” says Allen Good, an analyst at Morningstar.

France’s Total maintained its dividend, at least, even as it committed to renewables. Total has been buying battery assets since 2016, and recently purchased solar-power and battery-storage assets in the U.S. It also launched a venture with European auto maker Groupe PSA to make automotive batteries. Its shares have risen 31% in the past year; they trade for 10.9 times 2022 estimated earnings and yield 6.34%. “[Total] has been very disciplined,” says Shawn Reynolds, manager of the Van Eck Global Resources fund.

J.P. Morgan analyst Christyan Malek thinks Total shares could rise to 51 euros ($62.15) from a recent €39.69 as the company uses its cash flow to produce lower-carbon gas and invest in renewable power. “Add a 7% yield, and you get a 37% return in 12 months,” says Malek.

While Total’s business is 55% petroleum and 45% natural gas today, it will look very different in 10 years. Total says its sales mix will be 30% petroleum, 15% electricity, primarily from green sources, 5% biofuels, and 50% natural gas. Total also is preparing to change its name to TotalEnergies. “We want to anchor the strategy,” CEO Patrick Pouyanné told Citigroup clients this past week. “Total has the financial capacity, technology capacity, and the will to become a strong player in the emerging transition.”

Legacy oil companies also have unique skills. One is running offshore drilling platforms, whose floating foundations can be used as sites for wind turbines. Norway’s Equinor (EQNR), formerly Statoil, is operating wind turbines offshore.

The company cut its dividend last year and now yields just 2.1%, but investors apparently forgave the move; the stock is up 41% over the past 12 months. “They’re doing the best job of balancing traditional fossil fuels and the decarbonized energy system,” says Van Eck’s Reynolds. “Over the next five years, there’s a pathway to a double” in the stock price.

Equinor invested in renewable energy earlier than its peers, and its investments are expected to yield profits sooner. Analysts see revenue rising 48%, to $67.8 billion, this year, while it is expected to earn $1.87 a share, versus a loss in 2020. Yet Equinor trades for just 11 times 2021 estimated earnings, compared with 18.9 times for Chevron. “When the returns begin from their energy-transition investments, they should easily justify Equinor’s trading in line with, if not at a premium to, peers,” Reynolds says.

As for the U.S. majors, Exxon and Chevron, too, have announced plans to cut emissions and unveiled additional steps to prepare for the industry’s transition. Exxon said last month that it would build a major project for carbon capture along the Houston Ship Channel that could be fully operational by 2040. Chevron is making venture investments in areas such as carbon capture, hydrogen, and nuclear fusion. Still, neither company plans to get involved in major solar- or wind-energy production, and neither has committed to a net-zero target.

Both posted steep losses in 2020: Exxon’s was $5.95 a share; Chevron’s, $2.96. Exxon also is heavily indebted, having borrowed as oil plunged last year. Long-term debt topped $47 billion at year end, up from $26.3 billion a year earlier. Exxon plans to cut capital spending by 11% to 25% this year amid an uncertain price environment. CEO Darren Woods said last year that oil and gas would still be 46% of the world’s energy mix in 2040, even under the Paris accord’s goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Wood reminded employees that it took roughly 100 years for oil to replace coal as the world’s dominant form of energy.

Chevron’s debt has also climbed—to $44.3 billion from $27 billion in 2019, after it borrowed to purchase Noble Energy last year. But neither the increase, nor the turmoil in the energy market, has threatened the dividend. Indeed, Chevron hiked its payout in the first quarter of 2021 by 4%, to an annualized $5.36 a share.

Given their continued reliance on oil, Exxon and Chevron both could face long-term pressure from Saudi and Russian suppliers, who can produce crude more cheaply. The companies could also find themselves under increasing duress from shareholders and activists demanding that they decarbonize.

After all, even the oil companies that have announced transition plans have been criticized for not doing enough. The Church of England Pension Board urged Shell this month to do more about emissions cuts, and warned that if Shell doesn’t meet its 2023 targets, the fund would divest its shares of the oil giant.

James West, an Evercore ISI analyst, sees wind and solar taking “considerable” share from coal, oil, and nuclear, with the solar market growing by 7.2% a year, and the wind market by 3.9% a year between now and 2050. He notes that renewable power, mostly wind and solar, is now the cheapest new power option for over 70% of global GDP.

Still, don’t count Exxon’s enormous resources out. Recently, the company brought activist Jeffrey Ubben, and the former CEO of Comcast, onto its board. A month later, Exxon unveiled a $100 billion plan to enter the carbon-capture business. Ubben, a proponent of ESG investing—or investing with an environmental, social, and corporate governance orientation—told CNBC: “I really believe that the return dynamics for Exxon from here are spectacular. They are part of the solution, not part of the problem.”

Says Renee Klimczak, a consultant with Alvarez & Marsal who focuses on improving energy-company operations: “Even if Exxon is late to the game, they have the resources [to transition] in a big way.”

But ConocoPhillips, which yields 3%, might be a better bet for now. It bought Concho Resources last year for $9.7 billion in stock. The company has a strong balance sheet and is committed to returning at least 30% of operating cash flow to shareholders. And it was the first big U.S. oil company to announce a net-zero plan. Safeguarding climate-conscious investors is director Jody Freeman, a nationally renowned scholar of environmental law and an expert on federal energy regulation and climate change in the Obama administration.

Occidental, for all its aspirations, remains distrusted by some investors after loading up on debt in 2019 to buy Anadarko Petroleum for $57 billion. CEO Hollub championed the deal over the objections of many shareholders. Oxy slashed its dividend by 86% last year and cut capital spending. Today, it yields a paltry 0.2%.

Oxy beat first-quarter earnings estimates, however, and has made progress on divestitures and debt repayment. It has reduced its cash-flow break-even to the mid-$30 level on oil prices from the high $30s, boosting its profit margins. The stock has zoomed higher, and John Freeman of Raymond James thinks it could be worth $40, versus a recent $26.

Big Oil’s transition to a low-carbon future won’t happen quickly, and the risks are daunting. “We look for management teams that understand the [carbon transition] issue and take it really seriously,” says Nick Stansbury, head of climate solutions at Legal & General Investment Management.

For investors attempting to navigate the changes ahead, that seems to be a good place to start.

 

Reprinted by permission of Barron’s. Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: 21, May 2021.

Stop With the Video Chats Already. Just Make a Voice Call.

Voice Chats

Dear colleague and/or friend:

I’d love to do a call about this. And by “call” I mean absolutely NOT a video call. Let’s do a call-call. You know, those old things where we just hear each other’s beautiful voices. Whatever you do, don’t touch that webcam.

Looking forward to (audio) chatting,

Joanna

The time has come to be bold: Stop the nonstop video calling.

Allow me to remind you of the BPE (you know, the Before-Pandemic Era), a time long ago when every call didn’t require colour-coding your bookshelf background, firing up the webcam and staring into a human tic-tac-toe board for hours on end. Video calls used to be a rare treat. Now, they’re everyday soul suckers.

Really. There’s vampirical—I mean, empirical—proof. A high frequency of video calling can cause general, social, emotional, visual and motivational fatigue, researchers at the University of Gothenburg and Stanford University found in a recent study. Even Zoom’s chief executive, Eric Yuan, says he suffers from the dreaded “Zoom Fatigue.”

Look, I’m not saying all video calling must stop. I love video calling. Instantly see and hear people with little to no delay? It’s miraculous. My mom, who is hearing-impaired, struggled throughout my childhood to hear me on the phone. Now, she can see my son wherever she is, and the visual cues help her tremendously.

I’m just saying audio calls can be more productive—and they can sound better than ever.

But how do you know when to pick voice over video? And how do you make it happen without being the meeting jerk who just refuses to turn on the camera? After talking to researchers and technologists—and cutting back on my own video calls—I present you with five steps to regain your sanity.

Step 1: Ask, should this meeting just be an email?

Fact: There are too many meetings. So I beg of you, before deciding on the technological format, simply ask: Do we really need to meet at all?

Step 2: Understand the benefits of audio vs. video

Géraldine Fauville, an assistant professor at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden and the lead researcher on that aforementioned study, mapped out the main reasons video can be so cognitively draining:

• It’s a lot of looking at ourselves, which is unnatural and comes with self-evaluation and scrutiny. Called the mirror effect, this can be particularly intense for women. You can combat this with the self-hide option available in Zoom and Google Meet. Google has just added a number of features to address this specifically. Microsoft Teams’ new Together Mode was built to combat this, too.

• It’s a lot of close-up eye contact. In fact, the brain processes that sort of invasion of space as if it should lead to mating or fighting.

• It’s a lot of sitting and feeling trapped. You can’t get up and walk around during a video call.

• It’s a lot of nodding. “For you to communicate cues to the participant, you need to intensify the cues,” Dr. Fauville said. “So people nod more vigorously than if they were in the same room.”

No wonder we’re exhausted. So yes, limiting the number and length of video calls seems like the obvious answer. And as some of us kick-start the hybrid work life, that will happen naturally.

But voice calls aren’t just table scraps from our work-from-home buffet. They allow you to focus on what’s being said and give you real respite from the screen. I now do my weekly call with my boss on the phone. We reserve video for deeper conversations, like performance reviews.

I also still like to do video calls with colleagues I haven’t caught up with for a while, or for important meetings where reading facial expressions is crucial.

Step 3: Be clear it’s an audio call

You’ve decided that voice is the way to go for a call, now you’ve got to convey that to others.

Don’t waste precious meeting time having an awkward convo about this; be straight up before the call. “Hey, I’d like to do voice—no video—for this call. Work for you?” You can even put it on me: “I read this wonderful column in The Wall Street Journal about how too many video calls are bad.”

In a survey of employees, the University of California, Berkeley, found that 77% multitask during video calls. I called that out in a recent calendar invite: “Let’s do voice-only for this one,” I wrote to my colleagues. “We’re all going to cover each other’s faces with other windows on the screen anyway!” (Yep, we can see all of you, looking over at your second monitor!)

Step 4: Make the call

Even though I made my voice-call preferences known to my colleagues, I’m not just reaching for my phone. In fact, I’ve used all the big videoconferencing services—sans video. Zoom, Google Meet, Slack, FaceTime, WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger all produce stable and clear calls if you have a good connection. Most sound better than cellular—especially if you have a good mic. But the best choice is however you can most easily reach your contact.

Slack has become my go-to for work. Since most of the folks already are there all day, it’s great for mimicking the quick desk drop-by. Hit the phone button and it automatically defaults to a voice call. (To add video, you have to tap the video icon.) With Slack audio use surging in the past year, the company has been piloting new group-audio features, an office variation of Clubhouse and Twitter Spaces.

Slack is also looking at ways to improve audio quality and make it easier to switch between desktop and mobile calls, Ali Rayl, the company’s vice president of product and customer experience, told me.

Call-quality-wise, FaceTime audio consistently sounds the best to me. I often talk to my editor via Apple’s service and he sounds crystal clear. The downside? Apple devices only.

Step 5: Try no-video days

“The responsibility of limiting Zoom fatigue is not just on the individuals,” Dr. Fauville told me. “We hope our findings inspire companies to rethink videoconferencing.”

So far, so good. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser has started “Zoom-free Fridays,” a day free of internal video calls. The University of California, Berkeley, for the past year, has said no recurring meetings—of any kind—on Friday afternoons.

You may want to try a similar policy. Or at the very least start perfecting those extremely polite “You don’t want to see my face and I don’t want to see your face” emails.

Reprinted by permission of The Wall Street Journal, Copyright 2021 Dow Jones & Company. Inc. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Original date of publication: May 26, 2021.