Alibaba to Sell Stake in Chinese Hypermarket Operator

Alibaba Group has agreed to sell its shares in a Chinese hypermarket operator in a $1.7 billion deal, the latest divestment as part of the company’s efforts to focus on its core e-commerce business.

The company will sell its entire 78.7% stake in Hong Kong-listed Sun Art Retail Group to Chinese private-equity firm DCP Capital Partners for gross proceeds of up to $1.6 billion, Alibaba said Wednesday.

Alibaba expects to book a divestment loss of nearly $1.8 billion based on the estimated fair value of the consideration receivable for the sale of shares.

The e-commerce giant had bought a controlling stake in the hypermarket store operator in 2020 for $3.6 billion.

In a filing to the Hong Kong exchange Wednesday, Sun Art said that the acquirer plans to delist the company and conduct a strategic review of the hypermarket operator’s businesses.

Once a Wall Street favorite and a leader in China’s e-commerce, Alibaba is facing challenges in growing its revenue. The company is losing some of its market share amid a slowing Chinese economy and rising competition from domestic rivals like Pinduoduo and Douyin.

Last month, the company announced that it, along with a minority shareholder, had agreed to sell department-store chain Intime for $1.02 billion. The e-commerce giant said then that it anticipated to incur an over $1.0 billion loss from the sale of Intime.

Why 2025 Could Be a Great Year for Big Banks

Top global banks have taken off in recent years, but ascents can be bumpy. In 2025, they might get to relax while on cruise speed.

The Federal Reserve recently signaled that interest rates might only be cut twice in the year ahead as a result of stickier-than-expected inflation, prompting stocks generally to sell off. But rates being “less high for longer” is actually great news for banks, and the latest sign that 2025 might be a good year for almost all of the many business lines that comprise large universal lenders.

This hasn’t been the case in recent times, even when financial firms overall were doing really well. In 2022, the big rebound in global trade that followed production stoppages during the depths of the pandemic resulted in a surge in sales for such transaction-focused intermediaries as Citigroup , HSBC Holdings and BNP Paribas . Desks that trade fixed income, currencies and commodities, or FICC, saw client flows balloon, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the start of the rate-tightening cycle sparked a sudden demand to hedge rates, foreign exchange and energy prices around the world. The likes of JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank benefited greatly.

But adverse monetary and geoeconomic conditions caused underwriting fees to collapse, as companies all simultaneously held off on issuing equity and debt.

Then came 2023. Large-bank revenue jumped once again, this time mostly driven by an 11% increase in net interest margins, Visible Alpha data shows. After a decade and a half, the industry was finally getting to benefit from a larger spread between what it was able to charge borrowers and pay to depositors. Yet, at the same time, dealmaking tumbled because of high borrowing costs and heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Some of the lopsidedness has persisted this past year, mostly because central banks have lowered rates again. That resulted in a fall in net interest income that has hit revenue in commercial and wealth-management arms, but also transaction banking, which does a lot of cash management for firms. Traders of government bonds and other rate-related products have had a tepid year. And, overall, revenue growth has slowed.

Nevertheless, 2024 is when the market truly rewarded bank stocks. The banking subcomponents of the S&P 500 and the Stoxx Europe 600 have returned 35% and 32%, respectively, compared with 25% and 6% for the broader indexes.

This underscores the importance that today’s investors attribute to getting predictable, well-diversified returns from their banks, rather than having another year with a quarter of revenue coming from FICC.

Indeed, this past year was still one of normalization. Mergers and initial public offerings bounced back a bit, and many corporate treasurers had to refinance their debt to avoid an incoming wall of bond maturities. And, even if investors eschewed government debt, they gobbled up the kinds of fixed-income products that offered a spread over it, such as corporate bonds, in an attempt to lock in high yields for the long run.

This is a good omen for the year ahead.

For the first time since 2021, all of the divisions of the world’s top banks except FICC trading are forecast to expand revenue, according to a median of analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Even that dark spot might end up brightening: As of early December, yields on three-month Treasury bills have been trading below those of 10-year paper for the first time since 2022, which might soon trigger renewed enthusiasm for fixed income.

Regardless, steeper yield curves will almost certainly be good for banks, serving to widen net interest margins.

To be sure, officials easing borrowing costs by less than previously expected could hit consumers and cause trouble for some commercial real-estate loans. The European economy in particular is quite weak. Still, the impact is likely to be small. Default rates remain low.

Crucially, 2025 looks likely to be the year in which the advisory business gathers momentum after a tentative comeback. Private-equity firms are being pressured to start exiting their investments after years of waiting it out. While sponsors have been coming up with new delaying tactics, such as rolling over assets into “continuation funds,” the management-consulting firm Bain estimated that 46% of companies owned by private-equity funds were held for four years or longer by the end of 2023, which was the highest level since 2012.

If, on top of this, the Trump administration eases regulatory scrutiny both on the financial sector and on mergers, banks will enjoy yet another tailwind , with Goldman Sachs probably coming out on top.

Banks might finally be firing on all cylinders.

Tesla Stock Is Rising. Analyst Sees ‘Limited’ Focus on Fundamentals.

Tesla stock fell while the market rallied on Friday, which makes Monday’s gain a relief for investors watching the stock after its recent surge. Still, no one should mistake Tesla ’s recent moves for anything based on the fundamental factors driving the business.

Let’s back up. Tesla’s stock has been on a tear of late, which makes Friday’s move something of a puzzle. Shares of the electric-vehicle maker dropped 3.5% on Friday, closing at $421.06, while the S&P 500 rose 1.1%.

There wasn’t a great reason for the divergence. “To me, [Tesla stock] was wildly overbought and long hedge funds needed a reason to take some profits,” says Future Fund Active exchange-traded fund co-founder and Tesla shareholder Gary Black .

“Overbought” is a trading term that essentially means the stock has gone up a lot quickly. When that happens, it can be a sign a lot of good news is reflected in the price and that there aren’t many buyers left to fuel more gains.

Some profit-taking in Tesla shares is natural—especially considering the rally. Coming into Monday, Tesla stock had risen 69% this year and 67% since the Nov. 5 election . Shares have declined 12% from a record closing high of $479.86 on Dec. 17.

Tesla stock closed up 2.3% at $430.60, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively.

One thing helping shares was a report from Barclays analyst Dan Levy . He expects the company to deliver 515,000 vehicles this quarter. Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver roughly 510,00 vehicles, according to various consensus aggregators, a record for any quarter.

Better-than-expected results can help any stock, but Levy’s number is important for another reason. Tesla needs to deliver about 515,000 vehicles to increase deliveries in 2024 compared with 2023. While Tesla delivered 1,808,581 vehicles in 2023, it shipped 1,293,656 in the first three quarters of 2023, down about 7% year over year.

Levy isn’t a Tesla bull. He rates shares Hold and has a $270 price target on the stock. A “beat could keep narrative momentum strong,” wrote Levy. “But [a] focus on fundamentals [is] limited overall.”

Tesla stock has added about $170 a share since the election, boosting Tesla’s market value by more than $550 billion, even though the car business hasn’t changed all that much.

Investors, however, are thinking about earnings. They believe Tesla’s self-driving robo-taxi business will drive significant value. That business is slated to begin in late 2025.

Levy is less optimistic, though. He even used the word “meme” in his report, referring to stocks that go wild for little reason.

Overall, about 46% of analysts covering Tesla stock rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target for Tesla stock is about $296 a share, up about $60 sine the election.

No matter what happens in the last few days of the trading year, 2024 will have turned out quite well for Tesla investors. It is their reward for enduring volatility. Don’t forget, Tesla stock bottomed out below $$140 a share in April.

El Salvador Made Bitcoin an Official Currency. Now It’s Backtracking for IMF Loan.

The government of El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele agreed to scale back his ambitious plan to adopt bitcoin as a national currency in exchange for a much-needed $1.4 billion loan by the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF said in a statement Wednesday that in exchange for the financial-aid program to support the Bukele administration economic overhaul agenda, the government agreed to implement measures to mitigate bitcoin-related risks.

The deal signals an important shift by the IMF, showing greater flexibility over government use and regulation of bitcoin in anticipation of friendlier crypto policies by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump , said Alejandro Werner , a former director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department.

Bukele’s surprise decision to make bitcoin legal tender was cheered by crypto enthusiasts but stalled financial support from the IMF in the midst of concern that the volatile crypto asset could rock the finances of the impoverished and indebted Central American nation.

“In a situation where the international financial community didn’t want to set a precedent on the adoption of bitcoin as legal tender, it became an obstacle to close an agreement with the IMF,” said Werner, who also served as adviser to El Salvador’s government and currently heads the Georgetown Americas Institute in Washington, D.C.

The use of bitcoin as a national currency in this country of around 6.5 million didn’t take off, surveys show. After the government spent more than $200 million in 2021 rolling out bitcoin ATMs and an e-wallet with $30 of free bitcoin for anyone who signed up, most users took the virtual currency to buy goods or exchange it for dollars.

The government began purchasing bitcoin when it was trading at about $30,000, booking losses at first and then posting significant gains as its volatile price surpassed $100,000 recently.

Among the concessions made by the Bukele administration, acceptance of bitcoin by the country’s businesses will no longer be mandatory, while the public sector’s participation in bitcoin-related activities will be restricted, the IMF said.

“The potential risks of the bitcoin project will be diminished significantly” in line with fund policies, the IMF said.

Under the agreement, El Salvador’s government agreed to reduce bitcoin purchases, and it will no longer accept tax payments with the crypto asset. The government’s participation in Chivo, the crypto e-wallet launched in 2021, will be gradually unwound, the IMF said.

“Transparency, regulation, and supervision of digital assets will be enhanced to safeguard financial stability, consumer and investor protection, and financial integrity,” it added.

Bukele highlighted on X the IMF’s remarks about the steady expansion of the country’s economy since the pandemic, bolstered by “robust remittances and a remarkable pickup in tourism,” in the midst of improvements in public security.

Trump Plans to Appoint Musk Confidant David Sacks as AI, Crypto Czar

President-elect Donald Trump named a Silicon Valley investor close to Elon Musk as the White House’s artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency policy chief, signaling the growing influence of tech leaders and loyalists in the new administration .

David Sacks , a former PayPal executive, will serve as the “White House A.I. & Crypto Czar,” Trump said on his social-media platform Truth Social.

“In this important role, David will guide policy for the Administration in Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency, two areas critical to the future of American competitiveness,” he posted.

Musk and Vice President-elect JD Vance chimed in with congratulatory messages on X.

Sacks was one of the first vocal supporters of Trump in Silicon Valley, a region that typically leans Democratic. He hosted a fundraiser for Trump in San Francisco in June that raised more than $12 million for Trump’s campaign. Sacks often used his “All-In” podcast to broadcast his support for the Republican’s cause.

The fundraiser drew several cryptocurrency executives and tech investors. Some attendees were concerned that America could lose its competitiveness in emerging areas such as artificial intelligence because of overregulation.

Many tech leaders had hoped the next president would have a friendlier stance on cryptocurrencies, which had come under scrutiny during the Biden administration.

“What the crypto industry has been asking for more than anything else is a clear legal framework to operate under. If Trump wins, the industry will get this, and more innovation will happen in the U.S.,” Sacks posted on X in July.

The tech industry has also pressed for friendlier federal policies around AI and successfully lobbied to quash a California AI bill industry leaders said would kill innovation.

Sacks’ venture-capital firm, Craft Ventures, has invested in crypto and AI startups. Sacks himself has led investment rounds in many. He has previously invested in companies such as Slack, SpaceX, Uber and Facebook.

Sacks was the former chief operating officer of PayPal, whose founders included Musk and Peter Thiel . The group, called the “PayPal mafia,” has been front and center this election because of its financial muscle and influence in drumming up support for Trump.

Office Conversions Find New Life After Property Values Plunge

Developer efforts to convert emptying office towers into residential buildings have largely gone nowhere. That may be finally changing.

The prospect of transforming unused office space into much-needed housing seemed a logical way to resolve both issues. But few conversions moved forward because the cost of acquiring even an aging office building remained too high for the economics to pencil out.

Now that office vacancy has reached record levels, sellers are willing to take what they can. That has caused values to plunge for nothing-special buildings in second-rate locations, making the numbers on many of those properties now viable for conversions.

Seventy-three U.S. conversion projects have been completed this year, slightly up from 63 in 2023, according to real-estate services firm CBRE Group. But another 309 projects are planned or under way with about three-quarters of them office to residential. In all, about 38,000 units are in the works, CBRE said.

“The pipeline keeps replenishing itself,” said Julie Whelan , CBRE’s senior vice president of research.

In the first six months of this year, half of the $1.12 billion in Manhattan office-building purchases were by developers planning conversion projects, according to Ariel Property Advisors.

While New York,  Chicago  and Washington, D.C., are  leading the way, conversions also are popping up in Cincinnati, Phoenix, Houston and Dallas. A venture of General Motors and Bedrock announced Monday a sweeping redevelopment of Detroit’s famed Renaissance Center that includes converting one of its office buildings into apartments and a hotel.

In Cleveland, 12% of its total office inventory is either undergoing conversions or is planned for conversion. Many projects there are clustered around the city’s 10-acre Public Square. The former transit hub went through a $50 million upgrade about 10 years ago, adding fountains, an amphitheater and green paths.

“You end up with so much space that you paid so little for, that you can create amenities that you would never build if you were doing new construction,” said Daniel Neidich, chief executive of Dune Real Estate Partners, a private-equity firm that has teamed up with developer TF Cornerstone to invest $1 billion on about 20 conversion projects throughout the U.S. in the next three years.

Conversions won’t solve the office crisis, or make much of a dent in the U.S. housing shortage . And many obsolete office buildings don’t work as conversion projects because their floors are too big or due to other design issues. The 71 million square feet of conversions that are planned or under way only account for 1.7% of U.S. office inventory, CBRE said.

But city planners believe that conversions will play an important part in revitalising depressed business districts, which have been hollowed out by weak return-to-office rates in many places.

And developers are starting to find ways around longstanding obstacles in larger buildings. A venture led by GFP Real Estate is installing two light wells in a Manhattan office-conversion project at 25 Water St. to ensure that all the apartments will get sufficient light and air.

Cities such as Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Calgary, Alberta, have started to roll out new subsidies, tax breaks and other incentives to boost conversions.

The projects are breathing new life into iconic properties that no longer work as office buildings. The Flatiron Building in New York will be redeveloped into condominiums. In Cincinnati, the owner of the Union Central Life Insurance Building is converting it into more than 280 units of housing with a rooftop pool, health club and commercial space.

In the first couple of years of the pandemic, office building owners were able to hold on to their properties because of government assistance and because tenants continued to pay rent under long-term leases.

As leases matured and demand remained anaemic, landlords began to capitulate and dump buildings at enormous discounts to peak values. In Washington, D.C., for example, Post Brothers last year paid about $66 million for 2100 M Street, which had sold for as much as $150 million in 2007.

Washington, D.C., has been particularly hard hit by the office downturn because the federal government has been especially permissive in allowing employees to work from home .

“We’re able to make it work as a conversion because it was no longer priced as though it could be repositioned as office,” said Matt Pestronk , Post’s president and co-founder.

Increasingly, more deals are taking place behind the scenes as converters reach deals with creditors to buy debt on troubled office buildings and then push out the owners. GFP Real Estate reduced costs of its $240 million conversion of 25 Water Street by buying the debt at a discount and cutting deals with tenants to exit the building before their leases matured.

One of the first projects planned by the venture of Dune and TF Cornerstone likely will be the Wanamaker Building in Philadelphia. TF Cornerstone just purchased the debt on the office space in the building and is in the process of taking title.

“The banks are foreclosing and doing short sales,” said Neidich, Dune’s CEO. “There’s a ton of it going on.”

In Washington, D.C., a conversion of the old Peace Corps headquarters building near Dupont Circle is 70% leased just four months after opening, said developer Gary Cohen . Rents are higher than expected.

“If that’s the way to get people downtown, that’s what we have to do,” Cohen said.

Not all developers agree that the economics of conversions work, even at today’s low prices. Miki Naftali , who has converted more than five New York properties over the years, said he has been very actively looking at conversion candidates but hasn’t yet found a deal that works financially.

One of the issues facing converters is that even if an office building is dying, it often has a few existing tenants who would need to be relocated. Some buildings would need atriums to ensure that all the apartments have sufficient light and air.

“When you start to add everything up, if your costs get close to new construction, that’s when you get to the point that it doesn’t make financial sense,” Naftali said.

Some landlords are including clauses in leases that give them the right to evict tenants to make room for a major conversion. Others are keeping a small ownership stake when they sell buildings so that they can learn the conversion process for future buildings.

“The world is looking at these assets in a different way,” said developer William Rudin , whose company decided to learn the conversion process by keeping a stake in 55 Broad Street, a downtown New York office building it sold last year to a converter.

Hong Kong Is Becoming Hub for Financial Crime, U.S. Lawmakers Say

Leading China hawks in the U.S. House of Representatives are calling for a rethink on whether Hong Kong should continue to enjoy the cozy banking relationship it has with the U.S., saying the city is becoming a hub for money-laundering and sanctions evasion.

Hong Kong has turned into a major centre for the export of controlled Western technology to Russia; the creation of front companies to buy Iranian oil; the managing of “ghost ships” that serve North Korea, as well as other violations of U.S. trade controls, the bipartisan leaders of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen .

The letter was signed by Rep. John Moolenaar , a Michigan Republican who chairs the committee, and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi , an Illinois Democrat who is the committee’s ranking member. The Wall Street Journal reviewed a draft of the letter, which was publicly released Monday.

“Hong Kong has shifted from a trusted global financial centre to a critical player in the deepening authoritarian axis of the People’s Republic of China, Iran, Russia and North Korea,” the lawmakers said. “We must now question whether longstanding U.S. policy towards Hong Kong, particularly towards its financial and banking sector, is appropriate.”

The lawmakers cited research, for example, that shows that nearly 40% of goods shipped from Hong Kong to Russia in 2023 were high-priority items such as semiconductors that Russia could use to prosecute its war in Ukraine.

Both lawmakers have worked extensively in the past with President-elect Donald Trump ’s pick for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, on China-related issues, including efforts to force TikTok’s Chinese owners to sell the app.

The allegation that Hong Kong is a money-laundering hub is unfounded, a spokesman for the Hong Kong government said. The spokesman added that Hong Kong has a vigorous enforcement system to prevent the illegal diversion of strategic commodities. A representative for Yellen didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The two lawmakers, whose committee focuses on competition with China and frequently makes bipartisan calls for a tougher approach to the country, asked Treasury for information on how it intends to combat money-laundering and sanctions evasion that use Hong Kong’s financial system.

Hong Kong, which has a special status within China, has seen its role as a global financial hub increasingly come into question as Beijing has muscled the city closer into its orbit, driving an exodus of expatriates. U.S. officials in particular have condemned Hong Kong authorities’ crackdown on dissidents under a tough national security law, though many Western banks have continued to do some business there.

Last week, a court in Hong Kong sentenced dozens of pro-democracy advocates for what Communist Party leadership viewed as subversion under that law. The Biden administration has called for their immediate and unconditional release. The government of the Hong Kong special administrative region said attacks on the “fair and open” sentencing are smears.

The same day, a Hong Kong government-sponsored financial summit played host to a number of global financial leaders, including Goldman Sachs Chairman David Solomon , Citi Chief Executive Jane Fraser and State Street CEO Ronald O’Hanley , according to a program of the event. Leaders from HSBC , BNP Paribas and other institutions also attended.

Banking leaders didn’t publicly discuss the court proceedings on the summit’s panels. A spokesman for State Street confirmed O’Hanley’s attendance. A spokeswoman for Citi declined to comment. Representatives for the other banks didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Earlier this month, Moolenaar and Krishnamoorthi called on the Biden administration to sanction Hong Kong police, judges and prosecutors for their role in the arbitrary detentions of human-rights activists.

What’s Flying Higher Than Bitcoin? The Software Company Buying Up Bitcoin

Bitcoin prices have surged about 40% since Election Day. MicroStrategy has climbed even faster.

The software company turned itself into a bitcoin buying machine in 2020 and now holds some $37 billion worth of tokens. For many individual investors, the stock is a more popular bitcoin play than the cryptocurrency itself and they are willing to pay up for it.

With a $91 billion market value, MicroStrategy is trading at more than twice the value of its underlying bitcoin. The shares have soared more than sixfold this year and 77% since Nov. 5, with traders betting that the digital-assets industry will flourish under President-elect Donald Trump . Bitcoin prices are hovering just below $95,000, after trading near $100,000 last week.

“MicroStrategy found a way to outperform bitcoin,” Michael Saylor , the company’s founder and executive chairman, said in an interview. “The way that we outperform bitcoin, in essence, is we just lever up bitcoin.”

And Saylor says he is just getting started. He unveiled an audacious plan just days before the election to hire investment banks to raise $42 billion in capital over three years through stock and bond offerings to buy more tokens. His company had $4.3 billion in convertible debt outstanding as of Oct. 29.

MicroStrategy’s mix of bitcoin maximalism and Wall Street-style financial engineering has paid off for its investors, but skeptics question whether it is sustainable.

Saylor’s heavy use of leverage, or borrowed money, to buy bitcoin backfired during the 2022 crypto-market meltdown when the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried ’s FTX dragged bitcoin prices below $16,000. Quarter after quarter, MicroStrategy incurred mounting losses tied to bitcoin and Saylor stepped down as CEO, a position he had held since 1989.

“This stock has become detached from reality,” said Andrew Left, a prominent short seller and founder of Citron Research.

Left describes himself as bullish on bitcoin itself and praised MicroStrategy in 2020 when it first began amassing bitcoin. But in a Thursday post on X , Left said he had taken out a bet against MicroStrategy, which caused its stock to tumble.

Some analysts warn MicroStrategy’s stunning run-up is part of a broader investor euphoria for speculative assets and will inevitably collapse. David Trainer, founder of research firm New Constructs, said MicroStrategy is a bad business by conventional metrics—for instance, it has posted a net loss for the past three quarters.

Michael Saylor’s heavy use of borrowed money to buy bitcoin backfired during the 2022 crypto-market meltdown. Photo: Alyssa Schukar for WSJ

“It’s symptomatic of a market that has become obsessed with believing in get-rich-quick schemes,” Trainer said. “If you like bitcoin, go buy bitcoin. But don’t invest in a company that’s losing money and also buying bitcoin, because then you’ve sort of doubled your risk.”

Some traders say a key part of the stock’s appeal is its volatility, which can help amplify their gains over a short period.

Garrett Shirey , a barber in Florence, Ala., bought one share of MicroStrategy at $436.53 in his retirement account Tuesday afternoon and sold it at $472.40 Wednesday morning, notching a quick profit.

Restricted from purchasing bitcoin in his Roth IRA account, the 39-year-old crypto enthusiast has had to settle for bitcoin proxies like MicroStrategy stock and bitcoin exchange-traded funds. He holds some shares of the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF .

“I don’t think bitcoin went up 8% in the last 24 hours, but MicroStrategy did,” said Shirey, who has been investing in cryptocurrencies since the pandemic.

Saylor said he came up with the bitcoin strategy in 2020 when Covid-19 forced lockdowns and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero. MicroStrategy was competing with tech giants such as Microsoft and falling behind. The company was under pressure to return cash to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends.

“It was either a fast death or a slow death, or take a risk, do something out of the box,” he said.

Saylor has often boasted about MicroStrategy’s volatility. “When you embrace volatility, then you’re outperforming the S&P,” he said during last month’s earnings call.

MicroStrategy’s volatility has helped it find ready buyers for its repeated issuances of convertible bonds—debt that can eventually be converted into shares, if the stock price rises to a specified level. Such bonds are often purchased by hedge funds that protect themselves against a collapse in the stock’s price by going short, or placing a bet that the stock will fall. Such funds generally don’t focus on whether the company is a good long-term investment, and instead seek to profit from the volatility of its stock.

MicroStrategy is an attractive trade for convertible-bond arbitragers, said Vadim Iosilevich, a veteran hedge-fund trader in New York.

“We can definitely agree that the volatility will be there,” he said.

Some investors are turning to ETFs that seek to amplify the return of MicroStrategy shares using borrowed money or derivative contracts. One such fund, the Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF aims to double the daily return of the stock and has attracted $1.8 billion in assets since it launched in August. Other funds allow traders to make inverse bets.

Chase Furey , a 25-year-old trader in Newport Beach, Calif., said he started buying bitcoin-related stocks including Coinbase Global, MicroStrategy and BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF in October. Hoping to turbocharge the gains, he moved all of his investments, worth about $112,000, into the Defiance ETF instead and has grown his portfolio to about $400,000.

The Harvard graduate, who studied economics in college, convinced his parents to let him manage $700,000 of their retirement assets. He said he came up with a “less dangerous and smarter” plan for them, investing 27% of their portfolio in the Defiance ETF and the rest in MicroStrategy shares. The money has more than doubled to $1.8 million, he said.

“I think bitcoin could hit $400,000 and I think MicroStrategy could possibly 10x from where it is now by the end of next year, so that’s kind of my game plan with that,” he said.

Even some bitcoin bulls have expressed unease about the risks investors face by betting on MicroStrategy. Mike Novogratz , the billionaire CEO of crypto-trading firm Galaxy Digital , warned in an interview on CNBC Thursday that bitcoin could fall 20% after peaking at $100,000—in part because of leveraged bets on MicroStrategy available through some exchange-traded funds.

“The crypto community is levered to the gills right now, so there will be a correction,” Novogratz said.

Warren Buffett Donates Another $1 Billion. He Has Estate-Planning Advice for Everyone.

At age 94, Warren Buffett is reflecting on life, wealth and mortality.

The legendary investor’s company, Berkshire Hathaway , said Monday that Buffett will again give a portion of his Berkshire shares, in this case worth about $1.15 billion, to four family foundations. The donations leave him holding 206,363 Class A shares worth about $148 billion.

As he did last November, Buffett is converting 1,600 Class A shares into 2.4 million Class B shares, which hold less voting rights, before donating them to the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, named for his late first wife, and to foundations led by his children.

The Thanksgiving-time donations supplement annual gifts to the four foundations, as well as to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, that Buffett has made since 2006, when he unveiled plans to make major gifts throughout his lifetime.

In a message accompanying Monday’s news of the donations, Buffett discussed his plans for his three children, Susie, Howard and Peter Buffett , to distribute the Berkshire shares he owns at his death. Buffett told The Wall Street Journal in June that the Gates Foundation had no money coming after he dies.

The three Buffett children, now in their 60s and 70s, will need to decide unanimously what philanthropic purposes their father’s money serves. Buffett said in his new comments to shareholders that the requirement will give his children some degree of protection from an expected bombardment of requests.

“Those who can distribute huge sums are forever regarded as ‘targets of opportunity,’ ” Buffett wrote. “This unpleasant reality comes with the territory. Hence, the ‘unanimous decision’ provision. That restriction enables an immediate and final reply to grant-seekers: ‘It’s not something that would ever receive my brother’s consent.’ And that answer will improve the lives of my children.”

Buffett wrote that while potential successor trustees have been chosen, he hopes that Susie, Howard and Peter Buffett are themselves the ones to distribute all of his assets.

“I know the three well and trust them completely,” he wrote.

Buffett’s huge position in Berkshire means a rapid selling of his stock could jolt the share price. He wrote that his children should distribute his holdings gradually, and in a manner that “in no way betrays the exceptional trust Berkshire shareholders bestowed upon Charlie Munger and me.”

Buffett offered a suggestion for all parents, wealthy or not: “When your children are mature, have them read your will before you sign it.” He said it is better for children to be able to ask questions when a parent is still able to respond.

In discussing his fortune, Buffett, ever the teacher, highlighted the importance of compounding, especially after many years of investing.

“The real action from compounding takes place in the final twenty years of a lifetime,” he wrote. “By not stepping on any banana peels, I now remain in circulation at 94 with huge sums in savings—call these units of deferred consumption—that can be passed along to others who were given a very short straw at birth.” undefined undefined Berkshire’s Class B shares have rallied 34% this year, compared with a 26% gain by the S&P 500. Earlier this year the company joined a small club of U.S. businesses worth more than $1 trillion.

Buy the House First, Get Married Later: Couples’ New Math

The big wedding can wait. Couples are deciding they would rather take the plunge into homeownership.

In reshuffling the traditional order of adult milestones, some couples may decide not to marry at all, while others say they are willing to delay a wedding. Buying a home is as much, if not more of a commitment, they reason. It helps them build financial stability when the housing market is historically unaffordable.

In 2023, about 555,000 unmarried couples said that they had bought their home in the previous year, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Census Bureau data. That is up 46% from 10 years earlier, when just under 381,000 couples did the same.

Unmarried couples amounted to more than 11% of all U.S. home sales. The percentage has climbed steadily over the past two decades—a period in which marriage rates have fallen. These couples make up triple the share of the housing market that they did in the mid-1980s, according to the National Association of Realtors.

To make it work, couples must look past the significant risk that the relationship could blow up, or something could happen to one partner. Without a marriage certificate, living situations and finances are more likely to fall into limbo, attorneys say.

Mark White, 59 years old, and Sheila Davidson, 62, bought a lakeside townhouse together in Newport News, Va., in 2021. But only her name is on the deed. He sometimes worries about what would happen to the house if something happened to her. They have told their children that he should inherit the property, but don’t have formal documentation.

“We need to get him on the deed at some point,” Davidson said.

White and Davidson both had previous marriages, and decided they don’t want to do it again. They also believe tying the knot would affect their retirement benefits and tax brackets.

Financial foundation

Couples that forgo or postpone marriage say they are giving priority to a financial foundation over a legal one. The median homeowner had nearly $400,000 in wealth in 2022, compared with roughly $10,000 for renters, according to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances.

Even couples that get married first are often focused on the house. Many engaged couples ask for down-payment help in lieu of traditional wedding gifts.

“A mortgage feels like a more concrete step toward their future together than a wedding,” said Emily Luk, co-founder of Plenty, a financial website for couples.

Elise Dixon and Nick Blue, both 29, watched last year as the Fed lifted rates, ostensibly pushing up the monthly costs on a mortgage. The couple, together for four years, decided to use $80,000 of their combined savings, including an unexpected inheritance she received from her grandfather, to buy a split-level condo in Washington, D.C.

“Buying a house is actually a bigger commitment than an engagement,” Dixon said.

They did that, too, getting engaged eight months after their April 2023 closing date. They are planning a small ceremony on the Maryland waterfront next year with around 75 guests, which they expect to cost less than they spent on the home’s down payment and closing costs.

The ages at which people buy homes and enter marriages have both been trending upward. The median age of first marriage for men is 30.2, and for women, 28.6, according to the Census Bureau. That is up from 29.3 and 27.0 a decade earlier. The National Association of Realtors reported this year that the median age of first-time buyers was 38, up from 31 in 2014.

Legal protections

Family lawyers—and parents—sometimes suggest protections in case the unmarried couple breaks up. A prenup-like cohabitation agreement spells out who keeps the house, and how to divide the financial obligations. Without the divorce process, a split can be even messier, legal advisers say.

Family law attorneys say more unmarried people are calling for legal advice, but often balk at planning for a potential split, along with the cost of drawing up such agreements, which can range from $1,000 to $3,000, according to attorney-matching service Legal Match.

Dixon, the Washington condo buyer, said she brushed off her mother’s suggestion that she draft an agreement with Blue detailing how much she invested, figuring that their mutual trust and equal contributions made it unnecessary. (They are planning to get a prenup when they wed, she said.)

There are a lot of questions couples don’t often think about, such as whether one owner has the option to buy the other out, and how quickly they need to identify a real-estate agent if they decide to sell, said Ryan Malet, a real-estate lawyer in the D.C. region.

The legal risks often don’t deter young home buyers.

Peyton Kolb, 26, and her fiancé figured that a 150-person wedding would cost $200,000 or more. Instead, they bought a three-bedroom near Tampa with a down payment of less than $50,000.

“We could spend it all on one day, or we could invest in something that would build equity and give us space to grow,” said Kolb, who works in new-home sales.

Owning a place where guests could sleep in an extra bedroom, instead of on the couch in their old rental, “really solidified us starting our lives together,” Kolb said. Their wedding is set for next May.

Homes and weddings have both gotten more expensive, but there are signs that home prices are rising faster. From 2019 to 2023, the median sales price for existing single-family homes rose by 44%, according to the National Association of Realtors. The average cost of a wedding increased 25% over that time, according to annual survey data from The Knot.

Rent versus buy

Roughly three quarters of couples move in together before marriage, and may already be considering the trade-offs between buying and renting. The cost of both has risen sharply over the past few years, but rent rises regularly while buying with a fixed-rate mortgage caps at least some of the costs.

An $800 rent hike prompted Sonali Prabhu and Ryan Willis, both 27, to look at buying. They were already paying $3,200 in monthly rent on their two-bedroom Austin, Texas, apartment, and felt they had outgrown it while working from home.

In October, they closed on a $425,000 three-bed, three-bath house. Their mortgage payment is $200 more than their rent would have been, but they have more space. They split the down payment and she paid about $50,000 for some renovations.

Her dad’s one request was that the house face east for good fortune, she said. Both parents are eagerly awaiting an engagement.

“We’re very solid right now,” said Prabhu, who plans to get married in 2026. “The marriage will come when it comes.”